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With July meeting starting next week
ARREST 4/1 Unibet
Was 2nd at Chester however ground not soft enough for him. With rain in the forecast
Can win hereIf remaining soft ground Hamish and Arrest are the two I want to be with.
With Arrest’s exaggerated knee action I’ve been waiting for him to get the soft / heavy ground I believe he needs to show what he can do.That said, Hamish was beaten only a length by Luxembourg at Epsom. Doubt any of his rivals has form to get that close to Luxembourg. So Arrest will need to improve even on his best form. Hamish looks difficult to beat, especially if getting a truly run race on (truly) soft ground.
Giavellotto was second favourite for this until recently. Has drifted and not difficult to see why. His form is over further and although soft ground might bring his stamina into play, there’s no guarantee of a good pace. Giavellotto may not like soft ground anyway. Trainer Marco Botti is seemingly in nowhere near as good form as the Gosdens or Haggass either.
Time Lock gave Outbox too much rope on the Rowley course earlier in the season. Tried to race more prominently in the Corry Cup, but as a result failed to settle. Is better than his position indicates there. However, although has run well with give, disappointed on soft ground before. Needs it to dry out a bit. Gives the impression he has ability but needs everything to fall right.
Maxi King doesn’t look good enough for yet another Amo Racing new trainer.
Outbox was a big priced winner for me in the Jockey Club Stakes, but may not be quite as good on this ground and will need them to ignore him even more than they did that day. I’d expect Arrest to race on his shoulder here.
Value Is EverythingDoesn’t look as soft as I was expecting.
But I don’t think it is quite as fast as times make out (the two 6f races less than 2 seconds slower than standard). I believe there is a tail wind helping front runners. Taken 39/1 Outbox. Although I backed Hamish ante-post and have a saver on Arrest, not as confident now with the wind and less soft ground.Value Is EverythingThat was a bloody good performance by Giavellotto yesterday.
Will Kyprios go for the Irish St Leger?
That would be some race.
Could they supplement Giavellotto for the Arc?
Value Is EverythingHe was good but Arrest is proving quite disappointing now and Hamish got a bad ride, no chance from where he was. So the form is a little bit meh. They could supplement for the arc, probably won’t as they think he wants better ground than they are likely to get. As far as the clash with Kyprios goes, predictably the race planners have the Doncaster Cup and Irish Leger the same week and both are quite close to the Cadran I think too. So who knows, hopefully we get a clash but plenty of options to avoid each other
Arrest disappointed only when the going has been against him, TTM.
He has an exaggerated round action that is only likely to be effective in softish conditions.I don’t take much notice of the official going.
According to Timeform, the only times Arrest has raced with “soft” in THEIR going description it’s:Won a Class 4 2yo race second time out by 5 1/2 lengths.
2nd in French Group 1, losing only by a head.
Won the Group 3 Chester Vase by 6 1/2 lengths.
2nd in St Leger, beaten 2 3/4 lengths.
2nd in Princess of Wales, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by Giavallotto.I’d say he’s pretty consistent on his favoured ground.
If it came up proper “Heavy” at Longchamp I’d even be thinking of taking a big price for Arrest to win the Arc. Hasn’t had bottomless ground since running away with the Chester Vase. Possible he could improve 7 lbs or more in such conditions.Value Is Everything
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