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Firstly, how do you calculate prices in relation to potential percentage chance of winning?
Secondly, is pricing your own tissue essential to making long term profits on betting?
I’d be interested to hear views on this.
Firstly, how do you calculate prices in relation to potential percentage chance of winning?
If you’re talking the method here, it’s easiest done by dividing the denominator (bottom number) by numerator (top number)+ denominator, then x100.
e.g. 4/1 = 1/(4+1) = 1/5 = 0.2 x100 = 20%
or 7/2 = 2/(2+7) = 2/9 = 0.22…. = 22.2%Secondly, is pricing your own tissue essential to making long term profits on betting?
Some will tell you it’s essential (such as the aforementioned Ginge). However, I’m of the opinion it isn’t completely vital, although it does make profitting a lot easier. What is preferrable IMO is a feel for when a single horse is overpriced (or under-priced, these days).
What percentage should you frame a market to? 108%? Does it depend? If so, depend on what?
Again, it depends. I got a few quizzical replies for working out to 110%. I use that figure because it’s normally close to the ‘best odds’ percentage you’ll find by shopping around, as well as being close to Betfair’s market once commission is accounted for. Many will tell you 100% is the way to go, as only then will you get ‘true value’. You should be able to guess the sort.
I have a few different ways of betting but my standard method for off course is betting a number of horse in a race to prices on Betfair.
My own tissue is framed to 80%, that’s a 10% margin for error/allowance for commission and 10% profit. I’d hope to get required odds about around 1 in 4 of the horses I price up. If it’s anymore than that then I’ve probably got my book out of kilter with the chances.
Rob
This is one of the longest running arguments on here. I’m in the "no" camp but feel that doing it is an essential part of a good punter’s education. IMO you have to know how to do it to get past it to an instinctive "feel" for value prices.
See link below
http://betting.betfair.com/education/-g … rices.html
My method is based on this approach (with modifications to focus on criteria that have wage holder value). Once I calculate fair odds, add + 20% to determine bet odds.. back anyhorse that meets my bet odds criteria
Edit: example can be found here for Kempton 8.50
http://www.slipperytoad.co.uk/phpbb/vie … p?f=4&t=39Further Edit: The one thing that has improved my punting is creating my own tissue, would not punt without one nowadays but each to their own..
Thanks carvillshill!
If only it turned out like that all the time I would be posting this response from my private island in the Caribbean instead of wet and windy Bristol!
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As Carv says it’s an old argument, and not one I’d support.
Time is a finite resource for most of us, and pricing every horse in every race one studies means that knowledge is often spread very thin over a large number of horses. It won’t be a popular point of view on here, but that almost invariably means that guesswork plays a larger part in any appraisal.
Imo, condensing the exercise to where one learns/knows as much as possible about the main protagonists not only reduces the element of chance, it also reduces the number of bets and gives greater insight into how a race is likely to turn out. Pricing should then become both more instinctive and, inevitably, more accurate.
As ST says each to their own, but the latter approach works fine for me.I do not believe working out a tissue is essential but knowing what each price equates to as a percentage helps enormously.
It is true if you want to back plenty of winners then by backing horses with the best form will get the best strike rate. But if your average price is 6/4 a 40% strike rate is needed to break even. If it is 7/1 only a 12.5% SR is needed.
Knowing 6/4 = 40%, whether you have worked the whole race out as a tissue or not. You can instantly ask yourself has the 6/4 shot got a better or worse than 40% chance of winning. If yes you can back it if not you should not. Mistakes can easily happen without knowing the percentages, because it is difficult to judge whether any horse is value or not.
These days when doing a tissue I prefer to work to 100% and then each price has a small margin for error. So in fact something I work out as a 40% 6/4 shot I would probably look for 7/4 or more. As 13/8 in most cases will not be a big enough margin for error. After all, we are talking about opinions and not facts here.
I think if working out a tissue to other than 100% it should really be less than 100%. Otherwise you could end up backing every horse in the race and be on a certain loser.
The biggest difference I can remember between my price for a horse and a bookies (after checking for errors) was 12%. It is unusual for it to be more than 5% different. So at an 80% tissue, for me bets would be far and few between. For me 80% will not feel right as I’d know each horse has a much better chance than the percentage I’d have to give each one. If I did it this way 90 or 95% is the figure I’d work to. Not saying Rob’s way is wrong just wrong for me.
Say that you work out a four horse race to 110% where you think all four have the same chance of winning, but what if the bookies do too? If all are exposed, a bookie would price it up as 11/4 all runners, working to 106.7%. So if you work to 110%, you’d back all four, with a certain deficit. Would you not Friggo? Unless you have safegaurds. Am I the sort you are talking about mate?
As always if it truly works for you then it works.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI do not believe working out a tissue is essential but knowing what each price equates to as a percentage helps enormously.
Spot on mark!
Sometimes we get wrapped up in the tissue compilation exercise and forget the main reason for this task is “to put a price on a horses head”. James Quinn (a well respected American handicapper) once said
“To me, there’s only one axion in racing: Avoid the underlays and play the overlays as intelligently as you can”
If this done in your head, using spreadsheets, on the pack of fag packet or using tea leaves, the main reason why punters lose is because they play too many underlays.
Creating a tissue tries to avoid this AND puts you ahead of 90% of punters
As Carv says it’s an old argument, and not one I’d support.
Time is a finite resource for most of us, and pricing every horse in every race one studies means that knowledge is often spread very thin over a large number of horses.What works for me is to specialise in a certain area of racing (mainly All Weather) to get to know the habits of the horses running in that subset. Really helps to shorten the time required to determine who the contenders/non contenders are when creating the tissue.
If there are many contenders, then I create 100% book. If I can draw a line through some of the rags, then I calculate the book accordingly (typically 75-80% contenders, 25-20% field)
I do understand that profit on turnover is an issue (another debate) given a narrow focus, but as one that has limited time specialising is the key!
Say that you work out a four horse race to 110% where you think all four have the same chance of winning, but what if the bookies do too? If all are exposed, a bookie would price it up as 11/4 all runners, working to 106.7%. So if you work to 110%, you’d back all four, with a certain deficit. Would you not Friggo?
Not at all Mark, because of one little phrase you put in:
If all are exposed
If "all are exposed", I wouldn’t be backing any. When I work out books it is a means to check my bets rather than a rule to determine them. (Also, I’d know better than to work out a 4-runner race to 110% if I were ever to price up such a contest.)
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