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Lisnagar looked lke he’d never seen a fence before
not a natural anyway.
Wee Westport Cove ran a cracker and jumped beautifully
3.23 Gow Blizzard of Oz 5-1 (b365 boost) ew
Why is Quai de Bourbon so short? He can’t jump
Having an OK Cheltenham though Quilixios was a sickener.
Really fancy Grangeclare West for the National, I’m putting him in doubles with the shorties I fancy this week so already got Fact to File +GCW still alive, got him doubled with Dinoblue in the next too.
A couple for Limerick today
2.54 Dr Eggman 6-4
I think Cardcounter, who beat him last time could be smart and has won again since. Good n Kind a danger but Mullins horse has advantage of race fitness. Put him in a double with my beloved GCW for the National too though GCW price has halved from 40s to 20s in the past week so the double price not as good as my Fact to File and Dinoblue doubles on him.4.03 Harry des Ongrais 3-1
Liked the look of him over hurdles , won nicely last time and the trip will suit I think too.4.00 Curragh Officer 15-2
Stable second string and only one run to his name, but I’m interested to see how he does this year.50p on the spring double of Godwinson and ….Grangeclare West of course
1.50 Curr Power Blue 5-2
Bit of a cheat as I still get the free bet if 2nd to the SP fav concession with Boylesports.
I liked Space Blues as a racehorse and think he might sire some good 2yos**I actually have no idea what I’m talking about, but it’s a long way till Galway and even longer till Down Royal November meeting which is the start of NH for me…got to amuse myself somehow.
I reckoned without the Ballydoyle No Nay Never filly being ready enough to pip her for 2nd. Good performance from the winner.
Jessica Harrington has a few at Cork this evening I’m interested in
6.08 Polonia Stakes
Saratoga Special 20-1 ew
race fit and scope to improve6.38 Cork Derby
Saturn 2-1 win hopefully start living up to pedigree
Satin 14-1 ew sinus problems last year but maybe well handicapped, she’s a good mare6.30 Mayo National Ballinrobe
A Penny a Hundred 10-1 ew
Mint Boy 14-1 ew
Usually a good race. Westport Cove runs before that but pretty short so put him in win treble with Last Kingdom and Doctor Steinberg tomorrow4.50 Tipp Arctic Gale 5-1
Might be keeping his win powder dry for next time- the Galway festival has beginners chases- but step up in trip should suit and I liked his debut over fences, where he got a nice educational ride.
He doesn’t do anything in a hurry but jumped his way into it gradually. I will immediately throw some of the gains away on the Harrington pair at Roscommon
7.38 Ros
Sea the Moon 25-1 ew
Riviera Queen 100-1 ewIn my view you can only beat the bookmaker when he gets the odds wrong, which is very rare. This will usually be in a small field (up to five runners) where the favourite is a ‘false favourite’.
Many punters like to bet in large field handicaps, which is bread and butter to bookmakers. If bookmakers work to a margin of (say) 1.5% per runner, then the margin in their favour will be 7.5% in a 5 runner race, but 30% in a 20 runner race. Of course, the margin in their favour multiplies in doubles and multiplies again in trebles etc. Which is why bookmakers love ACCA’s and offer minor incentives to encourage punters to lose their money.
I spent 20 years trying to find a system that would make money following racing. At last I discovered it – I bought Paddy Power shares (now Flutter Entertainment) for €5 per share.
Mullins thought Absurde might be worth an ew in the Caulfield Cup so I’ve duly put my few bob on. He’s drawn 1 so hopefully get a good position. Race at 7.15am BST
3.30 Wex Blizzard of Oz
He’s short and this might be a prep run for something else- the Hennessey, even- but he’s one I follow so got a token bet on him.
not a natural anyway.
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