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2 00 Kempton
EW-INTERRUPTED DREAM @ 6/1
Mark Johnston won the first running of this race in 2017 with a horse called W G Grace. He had been unplaced in all of his prior starts including finishing 5th twice. He had ran in class 4 and 5 on his previous 2 runs. Franny Norton rode amd the horse ran from a mark of 61, the track was riding standard to slow.
Johnston didnt have a runner here in 2018 but he returns in 2019 with a horse who has been unplaced in all of his runs including finishing 5th twice. He ran in class 4 and 5 on his previous 2 runs. Franny Norton is riding and the horse runs off 61. The polytrack at kempton is officially riding standard to slow.Interupted Dream can be expected to show massive improvement today for the switch to polytrack. His father Oasis Dream has an outstanding record with his offspring at kempton over 6f.
The mother ‘Interception’ was a 6f machine and won the wokingham at Ascot off 101. Perhaps more significantly in terms of todays race back in 2013 she was a polytrack legend racing 3 times over 6f on polytrack and winning all 3 including over todays CD. The father of Interception is responsible for many many polytrack winners including MATTERHORN who was 1 from 7 on turf but when he went on polytrack he was 6 wins from 7 runs and of course trained by MJ.
LAKE VOLTA was 3rd over CD as a 2yo in a group 3 over 6f.
The list of winning and top form relations on polytrack is endless and MJ has trained many of them.I cant wait to see INTERRUPTED DREAM run on polytrack over 6f and thankfully that day is today.
The signs are certainly all pointing towards a huge run today and though this horse is a slow burner he should be completely capable of laughing at todays handicap mark of 61 in class 6 company and is very likely to develop into a horse who can win from much higher marks in the future. They had a nice look at him on his handicap debut at sandown and let him come home in his own time but today im expecting them to mean business.
The front 3 in the market Come On girl, Pearl Stream and Grace Plunkett are all fillies. Genetically speaking they are programmed to run in packs behind the colt. Interupted Dream is of course the colt and the team say the fillies will know their place here.
Pearl Dream is slightly intersting being Dods first ever 2yo runner at Kempton but she is a filly carrying top weight on her handicap debut and is coming up against a 6f polytrack machine. She is too short in the betting and vulnerable.
Come On Girl is trained by Tony Carrol. The olympics happen more regularly than a Carrol 2yo winner and the filly will surely struggle from a 5lb higher mark than she was beat off last time. Todays jockey has been beaten on his last 37 rides and has a career record of just 1 win from 25 rides at kempton on 2yos. A very weak looking favourite.
Grace Plunkett was 4 lengths behind Come On Girl last time. She may get closer to that rival today but I expect both should get beat here and the form is poor.
Prescott has a very poor record with 2yos on the aw generally and kempton is by far and away his worst track for 2yos. He has a 4% all time strike rate with 2yos here. Inexperienced jockey booked today so Positive light should struggle.
Red Jasper has looked awful so far and his trainer is 0/11 with his 2yos at kempton in the last 5 years, the stable have had 5 aw 2yo winners in the last 5 years and Liam Jones wasnt on any of them. Probably will pop up in a nursery at some point but hard to see it being today.
Theres no other horse in the field who looks likely to cause an upset.
Its not quite an open goal for INTERRUPTED DREAM today but he does have an outstanding looking oportunity here. He has another entry at Chelmsford over 6f this Friday. I would suggest connections are fairly confident they can cosily win today off 61 in a class 6 nursery against trees and turn the boy out again quickly on friday to win again under a penalty before the handicapper can react for a quick polytrack double.
6/1 is massive and his chance is surely far greater than those odds imply. I would expect the price to have collapsed by race time though at the moment its stil readily available.
The ew just gives a safety net and its hard to find one horse who can beat him never mind two so it would be a huge disappointment if he didnt make the top 3 but he really should win this.
The Beast from the north east is incredibly available at 8/1 currently after a morning of false gambles.
YORKSHIRE GREY 14/1 into as kow as 7/1
Trainer not had a winner for about 60 days. The odfspring of Lawman have a poor record over 6f at Kempton. Looks like a total mug gamble on the duffield runner just because Kirby is on.
HOT DATE possibly was as big as 40/1 this morning now no bigger than 12/1
Trainer not had a winner for 181 days though from 4 recent runners they did get 2 2nds so are actuallu running quite well for the Trainers not had a 2yo winner at kempton for many many years and impossible to see that changing with this thing drawn in stall 10. A proper mug gamble has taken place.
MUNGOS QUEST was around 40/1 i think and is now no bigger than 16/1
This is an interesting move. Simon Dow stable on fire with 2 winners and a place from the last 6 winners. They have an outstanding 6/25 in 2yo aw nurseries. This horse is well drawn. The team will watch closely but we dont fear any horse in this race.
Nice to see you having a go in DLAPs, Potato.
Good luck with the thread.
Value Is EverythingThe front 3 in the market Come On girl, Pearl Stream and Grace Plunkett are all fillies. Genetically speaking they are programmed to run in packs behind the colt.
From a quick wiki search:
Contrary to popular belief, the herd stallion is not the “ruler” of a harem of females, though he usually engages in herding and protective behavior. Rather, the horse that tends to lead a wild or feral herd is most commonly a dominant mare.[23]Boss stallion goes at the back or sides, herding and driving like a cattle dog. Just so you know
Good luck with the thread, you always provide plenty of reasoning for your choices so it’s interesting to read. ( I like those sort of “show your workings” threads).
Sorry Greenasgrass i have realised that my thread title is exactly the same as yours.
I used the word ‘pot’ as a shortening for potato and hadnt realised your thread had that name. I will change the title.
Hi Mtoto I wont be posting everyday and will just post occasionally, I also wont be running a pl thread just writing on a race when it takes my fancy and I am in a writing mood, probably twice a week but could be more or less depending.
I wasnt intending on posting a bet today until I saw this one. Incredible price and a huge run looks close to guaranteed. This horse has a massive chance today.
2 35 York Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes
Ew- TOP BUCK @ 100/1 (bet365,hills)
I have my own personal 2yo rule with Brian Meehan.
He never has his 2yos ready to win first time up and trains them as slow burners who gradually develop.
When he does have a 2yo that wins first time up then that will likely prove to be a group race winner in time.TOP BUCK didnt win 1st time up but he ran a huge race and was 2nd to EMEM.
Emtem franked the form when 5th to A’ali at royal ascot in a group 2. Dont forget the Meehan horse would not have been anywhere near peak condition first time up. This was a big clue that TOP BUCK would in time prove to be very talented.Next up he ran in the Lily Agnes at Chester he again ran a cracker and was a close up 3rd. He beat Showme Show Me in that race and that horse is one of the favs in todays race. He was getting 3lb but fahey has his 2yos ready early where as meehans come slowly slowly so on that form TOP BUCK can be confidently expected to be ahead of faheys by late august.
Had a few setbacks in last 2 races and has since been gelded. This explains why the horse is such big odds but he shouldnt he written off and many colts will improve for being gelded.
Brian Meehan has an exceptional record in this race and has won it 3 times in the last 15 years. He will only send a horse here if he believes it has a genuine chance.
Meehan hasnt won this race in the last 10 years but he has only ran 3 horses here and they finished 4th, 3rd and 13th at 28/1,16/1 and 25/1.Anything he sends here has a chance and any 2yo who runs a huge race on debut is highly likely to turn out to be very good indeed. He has shown us signs that he has considerable talent and he must he pumping after his gelding operation because if he wasnt then he wouldnt be running.
Meehan has hit top form at just the right time and 3 of his last 10 runners have won (3/1,5/1 and 25/1).
Its highly likely that TOP BUCK will run a career best race today and that will put him right up there amongst it.
It will take a good one to beat him today.
All of the 17 previous winners of this race had a minimum of at least 2 runs prior to winning this. The hannon fav MUMS TIPPLE lacks experience having had just the 1 race. The same comment applies to KLOPP OF THE KOP and LOVE DESTINY.
Faheys 2nd fav SHOW ME SHOW ME is potentially held on form by Top Buck from the lily agnes.
FLEETING PRINCE should go well here and has a big chance today though is priced accordingly.
RAYONG is potentially held by TOP BUCK on a form line through A’aali.
Haggas has won the race 3 times in thr last 10 years so ST IVES must be respected and is likely to go close. All 3 haggas winners were highly rtaed horses coming into this race with ratings of 109,95 and 95. This haggas runner is rated considerably lower at just 79 but respect it all the same.
No way on this planet should TOP BUCK be 100/1 or anywhere near those kinds of odds. Its not often you can approach a race on a 100/1 shot and be genuinely confident that you could win the race and you have a serious chance.
This is one of those very rare occasions. Fingers crossed for a bit of luck in running and god willing TOP BUCK has to go close.
Outran his odds and I think got 9th in the end disappointing but beat many of the fancied runners and was a little worked up pre race. I would be prepared to back him next time and expect him to land a half decent prize before the season ends.
Winner was outstanding and he was carrying a penalty. That was some performance.6 00 Leicester
Ew- BRAZEN SAFA @9/1
A bit late posting with this but the total outsider looks absolutely thrown in here on her nursery debut. The race appears hers to lose.
2 40 Beverley
Ew- REGGINO@ 15/2
Has a huge chance today and likely to be hard to beat here.
Should lead this field a merry dance and the only question the team is asking is how farhh?
BLUE LYTE(200/1) and CARRIESMATIC(50/1) can be instantly crossed off and stand no realistic chance of being involved in the finish.
J Quinn runs MAGNA MORALIA(7/1) and FIRST IMPRESSION (33/1) the stable is going through a quiet spell at the moment. They have only had the 1 winner in the last 2 weeks and just 2 winners from 40 in August. The occasional runner is running ok but more and more shortish priced runners are running shockers. When OUR DAVE won for the stable 6 days ago the 2 short priced runners in that race were non stayers who hated the ground and OUR DAVE basically had an open goal.
I was defending the stable form a week ago but one week on and its not going well for them and I am now very wary of trainers form.
MAGNA MORALIA(8/1) has been unplaced in 2 runs over 7f and gets a handicap mark after todays race and is likely to be out with the washing.
FIRST IMPRESSION(33/1) has the best draw in stall 1 but the inexperienced jockey has never ridden a 2yo winner and this is an unlikely winner today.Julia Fielden has had just 1 2yo winner on turf in the last 5 years. ALIBABA (16/1)gets a handicap mark after this race and may win a race next year from a low mark. In terms of todays race though absolutely no chance.
James Bethell hasnt had a winner for 39 days though has had a few 2nds at big odds recently. He is 1 from 39 with 2yos at Beverly and is yet to have a turf 2yo winner in 2019. ABBOTSIDE (8/1)gets a handicap mark after todays race and will at no point be put in the race from his carpark draw.
The above horses can be ruled out with high confidence and if any of the above won this race then I would need to pinch myslelf to make sure I wasnt dreaming.
The race comes down to 3 horses and the winner will almost certainly be trained by either Jed O Keefe or Richard Fahey.
YOSHIMI (4/6) is the odds on favourite and it wouldnt be the worlds biggest shock ever if he were to win today but he is vulnerable to anything with ability in this field.
Fahey generally has them ready to run 1st time up as 2yos this one has been a comfprtably beaten 2nd both times so far, he didnt show much improvement from 1st to 2nd run. He raced a bit keenly last time over CD when well drawn in stall 2. He has stall 7 to overcome today and also gets his handicap mark after the race. The market makes him the clear odds on fav but Hannagan is 7/70 on fahey 2yos this year with Hamilton being given over 2 1/2 times more 2yo winners from just 8 more rides this year (18 from 78) and I wouldnt guarantee this is the Fahey 1st string today despite what the market says.
It could win in a weak race but makes zero appeal whatsoever at thses odds and is certainly vulnerable to a good one and may be ridden with its handicap mark in mind today. I would take this horse on all day long.TAKE THAT makes his debut. The son of Ifraaj whos offspring are 1 from 27 with 2yos at Beverley.
Take thats father needed his debut run and was only 3rd but won 2nd time out as a 2yo.
The mother came last of 9 on her 2yo debut and needed a few runs before winning as a 2yo on her third run.
Fahey can get them ready 1st time up but pedigree suggests this one will improve markedly for a run. That said this is a very weak race so I wouldnt he surprsed if he ran well today but likely to be vulnerable to anything that has ability.Good luck today, Spud.
How many people are in ‘the team’ behind potato then? Sounds like a military operation!
Thank you Lost soldier good luck also to you.
The team has many members too many to mention.
There has been vicious rumours circulating around Newmarket that the team is a figment of my imagination and doesnt exist accept in my mind and is the result of a multiple split personality though if i actually heard anyone say that myself then I wouldnt hesitate to send notorious team member dangerous Dave round to sort them out and he was trained to fight by Bruce Lee and Mike Tyson. No reprimand for Potato and “his team” for putting up an EW steal selection, LS? LOL
REGGINO is owned by John Dance (the owner of Laurens), he just missed out yesterday on the nod with his star filly but can end the weekend with a sensational debutant winner here.
John Dance loves having a winner in yorkshire and in his top 5 most successful tracks (in terms of number of winners turf) 3 of the top 5 tracks are Yorkshire tracks (8 of his top 12 tracks for winners are in yorkshire).
John Dance has had 59 winners as an owner and the brilliant PJ McCdonald rode 47 of the 59 winners.
The top man is booked to ride today and the race is being run in Yorkshire.This is the first clue that REGGINO will be running a huge race today.
Trainer Jedd O’Keefe is currently on fire. He has had 11 runners in the last 2 weeks with 3 winners and 3 seconds and a third. He has had 12 winners from his 49 runners in July and August but they are really peaking right now. This outfit is red hot at present.
Jedds operating a 40% winning strike rate with his 2yos this August(2 from 5).
Jedd has only sent 2 horses to Beverley this year and has already had a winner with 1 of the 2 doing the business. Surely thats going to be 2 from 3 after what REG does to this lot.We have a beautiful draw in stall 3 to further enhance his claims.
REGGINOs father FARHH won by 6 lengths over 7f on fast ground on his 2yo debut at an undulating track (Newmarket). This gives the team confidence and it can be a case of like father like son as RAVISHING REG puts this field to the sword on debut on fast ground over 7.5 furlongs at an undulating track.
The superstar FARHH has so far had 4 of his offspring run as 2yos at Beverley the form figures are 2-2-4-1 and everyone of them has ran a cracking race here.
The only one to run over CD was 2nd and ran a big race.We have the owner angle, the trainer angle, the breeding angle and the draw angle all in our favour. The race could hardly be any weaker and connections appear to have done an excellent piece of placing here.
Missing the break, running green and needing the run are all things that can happen when you back a 2yo debutant and what will be will be but make no mistake about it the team is super confident and are fully expecting to win this race today.
15/2 was a gift from the gods, there was even some 17/2 available after I posted but there has been plenty of money about for this horse since 10:30 this morning and I would expect it to go off considerably shorter than even the 6/1 that is currently still available.
IN REGGINO WE TRUST
The team are fully expecting this to bang up here.
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