July 28, 2006 at 11:38 #2200
Having rashly volunteered to attempt to make a profit on the Polytrack on another thread, I found myself confronted with an afternoon’s racing at luverly Wolverhampton. So here goes.
I will be backing to level stakes, may well select more than one horse in a race and will attempt to give some sort of reasoning (however poor that may be).
The prices I quote on here will usually be poorer than the exchanges as I can’t access Betfair at work.
Wolverhampton 3:30 (Class 6 Maiden 3-4yo)
Crusader’s Gold 1pt win @ 3-1 (Prices from Betfred)<br>Whistle Away 1pt ew @12-1
Crusader’s Gold has been dropped to the right level and right distance, should be fit and on speed figures (albeit in the RP) is just about the best of these. Only concerns are that he has missed the break in the past. I’m hoping that the first time visor does the trick and that he gets away reasonably well – 6f at Wolverhampton does give those drawn wide more time to find a good position than 5f.
I think Whistle Away is worth an ew bet. It could be argued that, drawn on the inside and being slowly away gave him little chance on debut. This is a poorer race and he has a better draw. Trainer has a good record here and (though I may be reading it wrong) his entry in a better class maiden at Kempton next week suggests he could be better than this grade. <br>July 28, 2006 at 12:09 #66407
I should emphasise that I am in no way setting myself up as an expert on Polytrack (or indeed any other surface). I do think though that on a forum like this, if someone makes a selection they should at least try to give some explanation. I think Alan Potts wrote in one of his excellent books that when he operated a tipping line, having to give a public rationale for his selections had a positive effect on his reasoning.
You could well be right about Crusader’s Gold – assessing potential on breeding is something I’m not too good at – I tend to just scratch the surface of it.
And as for people commenting, I have no problem with that at all, in fact, I would welcome any comments as I still have much to learn. <br>
(Edited by Aranalde at 1:11 pm on July 28, 2006)July 30, 2006 at 17:32 #66408
Polytrack meetings are few and far between at the moment and I will be taking some time to try and compile speed figures for the surface. Consequently, I am putting this on hold until some time in August.August 5, 2006 at 16:59 #66409
One selection today at Lingfield.
6:25 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Height Of Spirits (ew)
Poor race this, the best horse in it and likely favourite is Jomus. Height Of Spirits came up against this horse two runs ago, ending up beaten 3lengths, conceding 2lb, having been drawn right on the inside and hampered later on. This time, the weights are more favourable, (Liam Jones also claiming 5lb helps) and so is the draw, with Jomus landed with the very inside draw. Drawn 3, Height Of Spirits should have a little more room for manouvre and I think, in a poor race could well make the frame.
Currently 14-1 with Bet365
(Edited by Aranalde at 6:00 pm on Aug. 5, 2006)October 6, 2006 at 11:29 #66410
After a slightly longer than anticipated hiatus, here’s another Polytrack selection.
Very good record on the Polytrack, ran too keenly yesterday over 7f, back to 6f (the right distance) today, doubts over several of the market principles, worth backing at around 4-1 or higher, I reckon.
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