October 8, 2006 at 15:34 #3125
There was one at Musselburgh today. Form figs of 222322, trading at evs in a maiden. I saw it and thought WTF?<br>Why do people back these horses at short prices? They are cannon fodder for the layers. Had my betfair acct been up and running i’d have been sorely tempted to lay into it.October 8, 2006 at 15:38 #79199davidjohnsonMember
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Aftertiming of the highest order.:biggrin:October 8, 2006 at 15:40 #79200
OOps. I forgot to mention that it finished third LOL<br>What a surprise ;) <br>Quite possibly it could be classified as very high class aftertiming. Give that man a goldfish :biggrin: <br>But I am merely asking wtf people back these woofers at short odds?<br>
(Edited by Racing Daily at 4:43 pm on Oct. 8, 2006)October 8, 2006 at 15:42 #79201graysonscolumnParticipant
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Depends on the manner of those place finishes, I guess – if they betray any overtly soft or doggy traits, then people backing the horse in question can’t say they haven’t been warned.
I know I successfully tipped up a few perennial placers in low-grade 2yo maidens during the summer for the precise reason that they’d simply kept bumping into one too good rather than being especially short of tactical speed or winning attitude previously – Dowlleh is one that springs to mind.
(Edited by graysonscolumn at 4:43 pm on Oct. 8, 2006)
The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.October 8, 2006 at 15:48 #79202
Fair comment gray. But the way I look at it is that if a horse can’t lose his cherry in, at most, four attempts in maiden company, then I earmark it as one to take on at the right odds.October 8, 2006 at 15:49 #79203FlatSeasonLoverMember
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Two reasons I imagine. One is that they know they will get a run for their money and the second reason it is probably has the form to win the race. Eg if there was a horse that was 2nd to Sir Percy then to Hurricane Run and then to Rail Link, are you saying it should be layed because it hasn’t won? If it has the best form as long as it isn’t ungeniune I would be happy to back itOctober 8, 2006 at 15:51 #79204SmithyMember
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Perhaps they back them because they win when everything is in their favour?
Escape Clause is a Grade A hound but given the right opposition, he managed to put his head in front.October 8, 2006 at 15:56 #79205
There are obviously exceptions to the rule FSL. I would however suggest that the trainer of said example would be quite happy at having a crack at the Champion Stakes with such an animal, rather than some lowly maiden at Bath or Musselburgh. Can you imagine what odds your example would go off at in such a race? LOLOctober 8, 2006 at 16:00 #79206stevedvgMember
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Fair comment gray. But the way I look at it is that if a horse can’t lose his cherry in, at most, four attempts in maiden company, then I earmark it as one to take on at the right odds.
UK Maidens 1991-2003 (only data I have on RSB), SP faves:
Prev runs:<br> <br>0 (debutants): 816 wins from 2,136 runs – loss 4.8%
1-3: 3,446 wins from 8,331 runs – loss 5.18%
4+: 1,227 wins from 2,690 runs – profit 7.59%
Based on those numbers, it looks like these horses shouldn’t be taken on!
SteveOctober 8, 2006 at 16:05 #79207
?<br>Surprised by those stats. Hopefully the figs would turn into a negative when being selective about the odds you would lay at ie. 7/4 or lower.October 8, 2006 at 16:39 #79208davidjohnsonMember
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To be fair to RD, this was probably one that was too short on form, both RPR ratings and Timeform Ratings each had at least 2 horses ahead of Brenin Gwalia on form, including Violet’s Pride – the one I backed win only!!:angry:October 8, 2006 at 17:01 #79209MountyMember
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Or looking at it another way – what’s the best form figure you can have next to your horse’s name in a maiden?October 8, 2006 at 18:39 #79210roryParticipant
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Very droll Mounty.
"Had my betfair acct been up and running i’d have been sorely tempted to lay into it."
Very cruel of me RD (for which I apologise), but you’ll have to remind yourself exactly why your Betfair account is currently defunct.October 8, 2006 at 18:44 #79211PrufrockParticipant
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If you had a Betfair account that was up and running you could also have considered backing the horse for a PLACE.October 8, 2006 at 19:07 #79212stevedvgMember
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Surprised by those stats.
I’d say they tell us that, if a decent horse is still a maiden after a few races, it tends tend to be underestimated.
So, if an experienced horse is made favourite in a maiden it’s probably shown a significant level of ability to achieve that status despite this prejudice.
Hopefully the figs would turn into a negative when being selective about the odds you would lay at ie. 7/4 or lower.
Nope. Still positive.
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