August 25, 2005 at 22:10 #1712
This system is not called "Penalty Kicks" because everything is supposed to win easily, far from it, but because all the selections are running with a weight penalty, ie (ex…) next to the name on the card.
It struck me when doing a little bit of research that these often followed up recent wins with fresh ones so it would be worth a serious look and it quickly became apparent that it would not be necessary to include too much in the way of filters in order to produce a system with a healthy SR and LSP.
The research shows that it’s probably best to leave the Jumps alone as although the SR is higher the odds generally aren’t up to much and there’s no real profit, but the Flat is a different matter. Older horses haven’t faired too well, nor have those with too much weight to carry or too big a SP to overcome, but the only other major factor is whether or not there was a claimer on board – no claimer and there was a hefty loss, as was the case with 5lb claimers, however there was good profit with both 3lb & 7lb claimers. I put this down to 3lb claimers being better jockeys so any weight allowance yields a definite chance, while 7lb off makes a real difference to any selection, and maybe the 5lb claimers are neither here nor there – not quite good enough to really make the allowance count but not enough weight off to count in that way either. It would be interesting to see what you guys make of that, useful input welcome!
So, to clarify, we are looking for 2-6yo horses running in any Flat Handicap/Nursery with a weight penalty and a 3lb or 7lb claimer on board. It should be carrying no more than 10 stone (not including the claim, ie 10-2 with a 7lb claimer actually carries 9-9 but still counts as 10-2 in this respect and doesn’t qualify). And finally the selection is NO BET if the SP is greater than 12/1.
To give you an indication, since 1st November 2004 there have been 86 selections of which 28 won (and 24 were placed). The LSP is 75.88, the LSP+ is 88.79 and the LSP++ is 100.87. I suspect that a combination of Betfair and SP+ would have yielded somewhere between the last two figures.
Anyway, I shall start posting these on here from now on – bear in mind that the only filter you’d need to remember is that there is no bet at SP bigger than 12/1.
One final thing, I have recently been searching for the old Racing Post cards to use in my research. I am now only 26 meetings short of having everything back to the start of November (most of them from last month!), so if anybody has any html/Word/PDF/text (or even jpeg!) saved of any of the following I would be grateful if they could get in touch …
18/11/2004 Wincanton<br>22/01/2005 Lingfield<br>27/01/2005 Southwell<br>03/07/2005 Market Rasen<br>05/07/2005 Uttoxeter<br>06/07/2005 Worcester<br>10/07/2005 Perth & Stratford<br>11/07/2005 Newton Abbot<br>13/07/2005 Uttoxeter & Worcester<br>14/07/2005 Cartmel<br>15/07/2005 Southwell<br>16/07/2005 Market Rasen<br>17/07/2005 Newton Abbot, Redcar & Stratford<br>20/07/2005 Worcester<br>21/07/2005 Uttoxeter<br>22/07/2005 Newmarket<br>25/07/2005 Sedgefield<br>27/07/2005 Newton Abbot<br>28/07/2005 Stratford<br>29/07/2005 Bangor-On-Dee<br>31/07/2005 Market Rasen<br>01/08/2005 Newton Abbot
Cheers guys, especially if any of you can come up with any of those files!
Rich<br>August 26, 2005 at 11:37 #60456
Sorry for the tardyness on my first day – been busy this morning!
One qualifier today …
4.55 Salisbury Out For A Stroll
Rich<br>August 26, 2005 at 21:50 #60458
Well on the one hand a great start with Out For A Stroll obliging @ 7/4, but on the other hand slightly annoying that I missed a couple of important things during my research.
Further research today centred around those horses with either no claimer or a 5lb claimer on board. Yesterday I ruled these out completely but today’s analysis reveals the following two interesting points …
1) that these horses actually do very well when the race is 2 miles or more, in fact to the tune of 5 winners out of 8, an LSP of 9.16, LSP+ 10.33 & LSP++ 11.35. Making this an original part of the system would have meant including today’s 11/4 winner Numero Due.
2) that 2-3yo horses actually do very well when carrying between 9-2 to 10-0 and SP no bigger than 4/1, in fact to the tune of 23 winners from 52, an LSP of 23.07, LSP+ 28.5 & LSP++ 33.97. Making this an original part of the system would have meant including today’s 7/4 winner Mpenzi.
If only I had got my arse in gear before posting last night and this morning we could be three from three (27/1 treble) now instead of just one from one, but them’s the breaks, I will include these from now on however.
PS A good start but don’t get carried away – the SR of this system is only about 38% !!!
PPS Isn’t it great to see England stuffing the Ozzies?!?! And I applaud that new rule that you can still be LBW after an inside edge Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â :lol: Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â as long as your initials are DM!!! (as amended from NH when Nasser used to play!)August 27, 2005 at 11:38 #60459
Quite surprising really for a day with six meetings but only two horses running with penalties today, both in the same race, and neither qualify.
Rich<br>August 28, 2005 at 11:55 #60460
Absolutely no horses running with penalties at all today!
Those two from yesterday’s race were 2nd @ 9/2 fav and unplaced @ 8/1 so well left alone.
Sorry to harp on about it, but going back to those Racing Post cards I’ve been after, obviously nobody has anything in html/pdf form, I wonder if anybody still has the papers and would be able to scan a couple of bits and send me a jpeg or two? I’d be particularly interested in the first one, Wincanton on the 18th November, as all the rest I can fudge to a certain extent but not that one!
Thanks in advance,
RichAugust 29, 2005 at 10:06 #60461
No fewer than ten horses running with weight penalties today but amazingly would you Adam ‘n’ Eve it not a single one of them meets the criteria so no bet again today :angry: .
RichAugust 30, 2005 at 11:04 #60463
No fewer than three of those ten from yesterday went in and at decent prices too. Never mind, we have a qualifier today …
2.50 Leicester Lady Suesanne
RichAugust 31, 2005 at 02:39 #60466
Unplaced yesterday, and one potential (but unlikely) qualifier today in Topatoo in the 2.10 York (only if 4/1 or less).
RichSeptember 1, 2005 at 12:38 #60467
3rd @ 8/1 yesterday, a valiant effort but not a qualifier so just as well it didn’t win!
Several carrying extra weight today but no system qualifiers.
Rich<br>September 2, 2005 at 12:32 #60468
Like the proverbial number seven bus, three today! …
3.25 Chepstow Jackie Kiely (narrowly missed the other day)<br>5.00 Chepstow Kallista’s Pride AND Ballybunion
RichSeptember 3, 2005 at 08:08 #60469
Looks like the number seven buses were all cancelled!!!
Only one with a penalty today and it doesn’t qualify.
Rich<br>September 4, 2005 at 10:30 #60470
Only one with a penalty today and it’s a qualifier …
3.20 York Neon Blue
Rich<br>September 4, 2005 at 16:36 #60471
Neon Blue goes in nicely @ 7/2.
That’s two from three so far @ 7/4 & 7/2.
Early days yet though!
Rich<br>September 5, 2005 at 11:43 #60472
No qualifier today.
And really annoyed with myself – Lady Suesanne last week was not a qualifier as it was a Banded Stakes not a Handicap or Nursery. However I posted it so will include it in result summaries. (Should be 4/4 now instead it’s 2/3 :angry:, still not bad though! :wink:)
RichSeptember 5, 2005 at 11:45 #60473LookingForAWinnerMember
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Interesting approach and nice to see some good selections.
Best of luck.
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