September 15, 2005 at 08:44 #1716
Hello to all.<br>Guess why I am called Paul Jordan ? low and behold it is my name !
As a basic starting point,I will only ever bet based on the following, handicaps and nurseries on the flat and all weather, handicap chases and handicap hurdles over the jumps, but never in handicaps that are either, claimers, sellers, ladies or apprentices races, or maiden handicaps. I never bet in races of more than 12 runners, I will only bet from the top six in the weights,( that is racecard numbers 1-6 inc any joint weights 6 and below) I will only bet something that has won at least once within two furlongs of the race distance and will only bet something that is running within 21 days of its last run. Then, using handicap, speed, and class ratings,I bet horses that in my opinion have live chances.
I hope this does not come across in a way that is not intended, rather than blandly put up ‘tips’! rightly or wrongly in my opinion you simply have to concentrate your efforts in one particular area, to have any chance.
Anyway, maybe expand my thoughts a little more at some point, but for now;
Thursday Sept 15th
Ayr 410 4 Climate Change 1 point<br>2nd beaten short head, sp 6/5<br>traded in running;<br>1.10 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£5,486<br>1.11 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1,010<br>1.12 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£630<br>1.13 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£298<br>1.14 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1,997<br>1.16 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£4<br>1.20 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£3,822
Ayr 440 2 Cross The Line 1 point <br>2nd beaten neck,sp 7/4<br>traded in running;<br>1.50 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1,520<br>1.51 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£740<br>1.52 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£208<br>1.53 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£6<br>1.60 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£248<br>1.70 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£4,350
r/t -2 points
(Edited by Paul Jordan at 4:55 pm on Sep. 15, 2005)September 15, 2005 at 08:53 #60555SystemiteMember
- Total Posts 327
Good luck Paul. Hope you do well and stay the distance.<br>Terry.September 15, 2005 at 08:56 #60556MatronParticipant
- Total Posts 5825
Welcome to TRF Paul. :wave:
Good luck for today.
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:September 15, 2005 at 17:49 #60557
One bet at Ayr tomorrow
<br>Ayr 4.10 5 Surely Truly 1 point win<br>2nd sp 5/2<br>traded in running;<br>1.40 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£31 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£67 <br>1.49 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£20 <br>1.50 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£537 <br>1.51 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£12 <br>1.52 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£232 <br>1.60 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1,298 <br>1.61 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£222 <br>1.66 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£198 <br>1.70 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£10 <br>1.75 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£12 <br>1.80 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£14 <br>2.00 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£108 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£2,420
rt – 3 points
(Edited by Paul Jordan at 4:29 pm on Sep. 16, 2005)September 15, 2005 at 18:36 #60558ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
Best of luck, Paul.
The only illogical thing about your selection process is the 1 to 6 restriction. Often the range of weights in the handicap are only a few lbs, and I cannot see why you make 6th (or equal) top weighted an arbitrary cut-off point. The rest seems perfectly sensible.September 15, 2005 at 19:42 #60559FactormanParticipant
- Total Posts 389
The book "Betting systems that Win" by Statistician, advocates first 6 in weights + equal 6th.
It does trap a fair few winners and as a cut off point its not bad.<br>The idea is right, though very basic.
AndySeptember 16, 2005 at 07:07 #60560
Andy,if you look at the first words in my first post
‘As a basic starting point’
What I am trying to say is that for me personally, by using some specific criteria, this guides me to specific ‘types’ of races and bets.Like in poker, the player who plays ultra tight, will certainly fold hands they really should’nt, but in the long run, by adopting this attitude, they will lay down a very high percentage of correct ‘lay downs’.<br>For me, no chance of any ‘edge’ in maiden races, 25 runner high profile handicaps, or say national hunt races,and as in the poker analogy, I may miss a few good betting opportunities, but know for sure I will swerve a very high percentage of rank ‘bad’ bets.
PaulSeptember 16, 2005 at 10:33 #60561FactormanParticipant
- Total Posts 389
Whether Basic or very basic, as said "It does trap a fair few winners and as a cut off point its not bad"
"The idea is right" and with a maximum rule of 12 runners you are selecting a minimum 50% of the runners and looking to see whether there is a winner amongst them.<br>Seems sound enough.
Regards and good luck<br>Andy<br>September 16, 2005 at 17:50 #60562
One bet Saturday
Ayr 410 1 Sciatin 1 point win<br>4th sp 7/4 beaten 3L<br>traded in running;<br>2.04 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£74<br>2.12 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£8<br>2.20 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£2,040<br>2.36 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£135<br>2.40 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£89<br>2.46 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£4<br>2.50 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1,277
(Edited by Paul Jordan at 7:02 pm on Sep. 17, 2005)September 17, 2005 at 18:03 #60563
Sunday 18th Two bets at Plumpton
3.45 Plum 4 Cantgeton 1 point<br>u/p sp 11/4 not trade shorter in running
5.25 Plum 2 High Gear 1 point<br>u/p ( fell 8th ) sp 5/2 not trade shorter in running
(Edited by Paul Jordan at 6:17 pm on Sep. 18, 2005)September 18, 2005 at 17:18 #60564
Two bets Monday
3.15 Carlisle 6 Dubai Venture 1 point<br>u/p sp 3/1 not traded shorter in running
4.30 Folkstone 5 Madam Caversfield 1 point<br>u/p sp 7/1 not traded shorter in running
(Edited by Paul Jordan at 6:46 pm on Sep. 19, 2005)September 19, 2005 at 17:48 #60565
Two bets Tue 20th
2.00 Brighton 2 Bridal Path 1 point<br>u/p sp 3/1 not trade shorter in running
4.50 Brighton 2 Cup of Love 1 point<br>3rd sp 9/4<br>traded in running;<br>1.90 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£25<br>1.92 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£12<br>2.00 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£294<br>2.02 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£119<br>2.04 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£44<br>2.08 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£139<br>2.10 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£58<br>2.12 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£44<br>2.14 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£14<br>2.20 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£223<br>2.30 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£50<br>2.32 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£6<br>2.34 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£8<br>2.40 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1,010<br>2.50 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£931
(Edited by Paul Jordan at 6:38 pm on Sep. 20, 2005)September 20, 2005 at 17:39 #60566
One bet Wednesday
4.05 Perth 2 Fearless Mel 1 point<br>u/p sp 4/1<br>the traded in running data is really not relevent so will not post that data anymore
(Edited by Paul Jordan at 6:56 pm on Sep. 21, 2005)September 21, 2005 at 17:57 #60567
Two bets for Thursday
4.00 Pontefract 6 Pagan Sky 1 point<br>3rd sp 3/1<br>4.40 Fontwell 6 Celtic Star 1 point <br>u/p sp 9/2
(Edited by Paul Jordan at 5:36 pm on Sep. 22, 2005)September 22, 2005 at 16:37 #60568
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