- This topic has 19 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
"9/2 – 5/1 is about right for Cloudy Lane I think."
Sorry John, no it’s not. It’s a joke. A four and a half mile handicap race with a favourite priced less than 8’s is a pathetic effort by bookies.If Denman was priced around that mark, then I could understand it. But Cloudy Lane? Come off it.
What would you rather back at 5/1 – Cloudy Lane in the National or Denman in the Hennessy…?
John Parrott is a lovely man. An an Evertonian to boot
However, saying that <5’s is reasonable is the National isn’t on. I couldn’t imagine a certain Mr McCrirrick being happy about it on television.
5-1 is an awful price about something that still has it to prove beyond 3m2f overall and in big-field handicap chases at a high level. I’ve never regarded the National as much of a lay to win medium, but my God I’m tempted here.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
According to official ratings, the horse is 20 lb well in. He’ll be a good way clear on Timeform Ratings, as he will be on Racing Post Ratings. He jumps really well and his last 3 runs this year he has seen out thoroughly. I wouldn’t want to and won’t be laying the horse at 5’s and think there are plenty of worse prices in the race to be honest.
Rough Quest had a similar amount in hand (17lbs) when he won and was in a less competitive race with only 27 runners and was returned 7/1, I took 9/2 early in the week
Rough Quest had a similar amount in hand (17lbs) when he won
…since when the race has been a bit of a graveyard for those horses with plenty in hand over the assessor.
Granted, Simon might have gone very close indeed last season given how well he was still going, and scattershot will probably guarantee one such well-in animal a victory in the race sooner rather than later, but I still harbour enough doubts about Cloudy Lane in other respects to want to oppose him.
David is right, though – there are certainly worse prices in the race, from the top of the market to the bottom. I can’t quite fathom the 20-1 about Point Barrow judged on this term’s meagre efforts, likewise any support Dun Doire – who hated it last year – has received or will receive, and I’m astonished that poor sod Contraband isn’t out to four figures yet.
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
It’s ok for you Jeremy you only had to follow that lot, I have to follow a professional writer
Had to put the thinking cap on but I think I have the answer.
Anywhere there is a parrot involved one should expect Pieces of 8’s
What you think J…..do I get a prize or what?
I can understand the bookies not taking too many chances with Cloudy Lane, not only has he won 3 in a row, but he’s trained by Don McCain so the media attention and hype will mean that at 10/1 he’d have been backed off the boards come race day. Also he did trounce the previous ante post favourite in a way that suggests there is more to come.
I think he’ll be one they try to take on though come Saturday and expect the McCoy money to shorten Butlers Cabin and that it will be nearer the 7/1 bar we usually get come the off.
Also on the 20lbs better off thing, I always say a horse is only as well in as he’s actually won off, especially if he’s only run in handicaps. Too many horses are said to be ahead of the handicapper and lose (especially those switching between hurdles and fences). A new mark is the handicappers assessment of their ability not necessarily the true worth, most times he over reacts to a win and the horse has to come down to win again. Obviously Cloudy Lane has won twice since the weights were published, but that doesn’t mean his latest mark is his true one, though he is clearly better than 141 he’s got and probably 152 he carried last time.Does Cloudy Lane deserved to be as short as he is? In National terms, 5-1 is almost a ‘Dead cert’. But is he?
What’s his form over the National Fences?
What’s his form in the Nationals? (Irish, Welsh, Scottish, Midlands)Since 2004, all the winners had won, been placed in the above races, bar Hedgehunter who fell at the last when likely to be placed.
Saying that Cloudy Lane will probably win by 10-15 lengths in a hack canter, and we’ll all wonder why we didn’t back it.
Since 2004? That’s hardly a big trend is it? Thats as bad as Tanya Stevenson’s he’s got a 50% strike rate at the course meaning 1-2. I also don’t go for the course experience line. Horses have won round the National fences 1st time, whereas others have won over them once and never completed again.
Since 2004? That’s hardly a big trend is it? Thats as bad as Tanya Stevenson’s he’s got a 50% strike rate at the course meaning 1-2. I also don’t go for the course experience line. Horses have won round the National fences 1st time, whereas others have won over them once and never completed again.
No, not enough data for a trend. But after last year and Silver Birch winning I thought that maybe that might be the way to go. Yes, he had lost his form. To be honest, I’m not sure who’ll win, I never seem to get the winner. But after the race I can quite often see why the horse won, and why I didn’t back it.
With that I confidently pick,………. Contraband!!!Not to win!!!
5/1 is far too short for a horse to win the Grand National.
Has run well in his previous races, but the course and the fences are a lot different to what he has previously encountered.
John Parrott seems a decent enough man, and he loves his horseracing – but I cannot help but think the BBC went for the easy and arguably cheaper option, as he is already on the Beeb’s payroll.
Cloudy Lane should be 10/1 at least, but he has as good a chance as most in the race.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
It’s ok for you Jeremy you only had to follow that lot, I have to follow a professional writer
Be assured I’m very rarely accused of professionalism.
Anywhere there is a parrot involved one should expect Pieces of 8’s
What you think J…..do I get a prize or what?
Ladies and gennulmen, Mr Fists is available for weddings, bar-mitzvahs and other social events. Thankyewverymuch!!
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.