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Paddy Power Chase 2019

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  • #1476394
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16856

    One of the best Handicaps of the year this, and usual strong entry…….

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/187/leopardstown/2019-12-27/746402

    My long term hope for this has been Winter Escape for this. Long term fan of the horse, and he ticks every box for me here. He’s almost certainly better than his mark, so I’ll no be concerned about him being near the head of the weights, and the trip looks ideal. Big fancy.

    It’s usually the case in this race anyway, but there are a few other JP Horses who catch the eye. I’m really keen on Any Second Now for Aintree, so I’m not wanting too big a run here, but if this is a serious target for them, he’s another who’s big weight wouldn’t be giving me any concerns. Blazer is another who’s profile would fit here, and the ability is there to beat last year’s sixth in this, regardless of being a few pounds higher this time.

    Potential British raiders Jerrysback and No Comment look like ideal candidates for a big Handicap each this season, and though both would look ideal for this, I hope they don’t make the journey. I’m particularly keen on No Comment for The Kim Muir.

    JP can call on several more, with the ultra consistent Fitzhenry, and the potential dark horse, Spiders Web, muddying the waters even more.

    Away from the JP Hordes, as can be expected, there are loads from Mullins and Elliott, and also plenty in The Gigginstown silks.

    The Giggs horse which interests me most is Mortal. Put a line through his last run, and he looks to be on an excellent mark. Very interesting for Joseph O’Brien.

    O’Brien can also call on last year’s runner up Vieux Morvan, who is pretty solid round here, and has to be considered.

    One horse I really like the thought of round here is Whisperinthebreeze, while Ex Patriot could easily make the frame too. The trip in particular looks good for the Harrington trained Whisper, while there’s the potential that Patriot, from a smaller yard, could just be underestimated in amongst the big boys, and he’d also be of serious interest. Plenty of races in the past which makes him appeal to me.

    The last three named easily make the early shortlist. That shortlist is headed by Winter Escape. It’s December, and I’ve not had a big Antepost yet this Jumps season, but he’ll almost certainly be my first, but if any of the other trio look overpriced, I might just spread a few pounds around.

    Ex Patriot
    Vieux Morvan
    Whisperinthebreeze

    Winter Escape

    #1476463
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16856

    Market up, with 5 Places…..

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/paddy-power-chase/winner

    No Comment being Fav at 7’s is a bit of a surprise. I was hoping for a quiet build up to The Kim Muir, but that would hint strongly at him coming here. Hopefully not, but if he did, then I’d cover him, but at that price, not Antepost.

    Winter Escape opening at 33’s means that I don’t have to put as much on, I expected around 16’s, but I’ll still have a swing at that alright.

    The other trio on the shortlist are 16’s, so need to play them early.

    Winter Escape 33’s EW 5 Places

    #1476466
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5732

    MORTAL and FITZHENRY for me thing is if look at winners of race in recent a hurdles prep or a run in Troytown normaly place to look at why i fancy the latter more one of ways i put up CROSS APPEAL at massive price when he won it

    #1476494
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16856

    Like the pair of them Darren.

    It has to go Fitzhenry’s way sooner or later, and Mortal has a proper big one in him, especially off of that mark. Really wanted him to run in The Irish National last season.

    #1476661
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16856

    Both Ex Patriot and Whisperinthebreeze take in The Foxrock at Navan tomorrow, which is a traditional trial for this.

    I’ll be watching the pair of them closely.

    #1478146
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1391

    I’m going with Fitzhenry again. 12-1 ew 5 places.

    #1478163
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2741

    Can’t desert Robin des Foret and hope he came out of the Caspian Caviar OK.
    20-1 ew 7 places

    #1478175
    Venture to CognacVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16856

    Really decent renewal as ever.

    Happy enough with Winter Escape, despite the market not sharing my enthusiasm. Already on at the five places, for what will be a decent enough punt, makes sense to top up the seven places.

    Dangers everywhere, and the JP quartet of Spider Web, Fitzhenry, Blazer, and Any Second Now all stand out. Blazer, who was fifth in this last year, and second in The Galway Hurdle, is obviously laid out for the bigger prizes, and he looks overpriced. Any Second Now is a big favourite of mine, and hoping that this is being used as a prep for Aintree, but he must have huge chance here.

    The biggest headache though comes from another JP Runner, No Comment. He’s a winner of a big race waiting to happen, and he’s miles better than his mark, I’m sure of it. Trouble is, I’m mad keen on him for Kim Muir, and he can’t be winning both. I really didn’t want him making this trip, and I’d be delighted to see him 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

    General Principle is another old favourite, and the fact he teams up with Lisa O’Neil, really catches my eye. That’s a nice combo, and they’re a huge price.

    This is one of my bigger betting races of the season, and I’ll certainly be covering Vieux Morvan and Whisperinthebreeze to the seven places as well. They both look way too big at a track they both perform so well on.

    Winter Escape 33’s EW 5 Places
    Winter Escape 28’s EW 7 Places
    Vieux Morvan EW 7 Places
    Whisperinthebreeze EW 7 Places

    #1478179
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 447

    I bet two in this very early, Fitzhenry + Poker Party.

    I was lucky to get Fitzhenry at 16-1, but I only had him to win. He is a lot shorter now, but I will have to have more on to take advantage of Paddy Power + their 7 places.

    Poker Party is a steady 11-1, and I will stand by him just for the win.

    #1478183
    Autumnal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 275

    I think that Whisperinthebreeze will go very close here, and 20/1 is a great price.

    I also think that 40/1 was too good to refuse for Chef Des Obeaux back in Handicap company.

    I’ve covered them both with 7plcs too.

    #1478188
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5732

    Much shorter than 14/1 i got FITZHENRY is happy with that all got to do is win now

    #1478194
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2217

    A tough handicap! I backed Robin De Foret last time and thought he travelled well. He’s being backed up quickly here but i can’t help but be tempted with Derek on board!
    Tower Bridge if jumping well is well handicapped i think. Jumpings the game though and he struggles at times.
    Killer Miller has more room left off his mark, but i have a feeling he’ll be losing today over 3ms, i think the marathon trips suit him and if he’s still injury free come the Irish National he’ll be one i hope is running.

    There are a number in this i’d rule out immediately so i am tempted to have a bet.

    I’m going to back RDF as above, and take a chance on Nolan’s Quamino. It’s left field, but he likes the course, and is unexposed over staying trips. Could turn out he hasn’t a hope of staying, but at the price and with Nolan flying i’ll give him a go.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1478196
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2741

    I’ve joined you on Chef des Obeaux Autumnal. I suppose if you’ve got 8 horses for the race then perhaps you have none but he travelled and jumped well for a good way on seasonal reappearance and trawling through previous comments from Henderson apparently he was bone idle at home so may have needed the race. I suspect he has been transferred to Ireland for the ground which he gets today and should appreciate the step up in trip too. Might be a horse to keep an eye on- he looks the sort to save a bit for himself on the racecourse too so watching his evolution in handicaps could be interesting especially as he gets fitter with racing.

    #1478197
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2741

    I was really tempted by Quamino too Jack, if he stays you’ll be laughing, good luck.

    #1478200
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2741

    Can’t help but notice that the two biggest staying handicaps of the Christmas week go off within 5 minutes of each other. Great.

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