Pace in the race

[onefurlongout]

Does anyone know where I can get stats regarding the likley pace that a horse will set during the race?

I’ve been working on my own but finding it difficult to keep records.

Any help appreciated

Thanks

[Prufrock]

You have little option but to take sectional times yourself and adjust according to the conditions, and even then there is no guarantee that the horse will do what it has done before pace-wise.

In terms of the likelihood of a horse racing prominently or not, the close-ups in various publications will indicate the run style of a horse in the past, while Timeform in-running racecards go into this in even more detail.

Position in race and pace are not one and the same thing, of course.

[onefurlongout]

Thanks Pru,

What I’m looking for is a snap shot to the postion in the race. (not clear in my original post)

Held up prominent etc etc.

[Prufrock]

It’s wonderful what you can discover on the internet.

Such as that, according to Timeform’s website, "Timeform In-Play Race Cards ceased publication at the end of April."

So, forget that.

[blackfingernail]

snap shot to position, when you click on a horses profile in the racing post website it takes you to all it runs. (lifetime form) if you just put the mouse over (not clicking) it gives you what you looking for.

[Never Nearer]

Most of the information that was in the Timeform In-Play Race Cards is now in the Race Passes.

There’s a free race on the home page every day, so you can see whether it’s what you’re after without it costing anything.

[Anonymous]

Hi Onefurlongout,

I don’t know where you might get any stats, but I do think that pace, together with its twin brother shape, provide a fascinating angle for analyzing a race.

Pace, surely, is tied to how many front runners are in the race. I don’t know for sure, so I definitely stand to be corrected, but I’ve always assumed that if there’s only one front runner, you’re likely to get a false pace, playing into the hands of those horses that finish with speed; where there are two front runners, the pace will be truer, so that the best horse in the race has the best chance of winning, all else being equal; and where there are several front runners, they’ll all burn themselves out, allowing a horse that’s held up to come with a late finish.

Would anyone disagree with that analysis, guys?

As for the stats, I tend to use the form guide section in

Racing Post

, which, for me, means I don’t go anywhere near any race where all the runners haven’t previously run at least three times.

Brian

[Gerald]

Can anyone provide access to the information about the percentage of races at each course won by frontrunners etc?

[Prufrock]

Ricky Taylor covered this in his book "Pace Wins The Race", published in 2006.

As mentioned elsewhere, racing prominently and showing pace is not one and the same thing, but the book is thoroughly researched and worth a read, imo, even though the information therein is now a few years out of date.

[Anonymous]

Hi Gerald,

A book called

Betting On The All Weather

by David Bellingham gives some useful statistics for…all weather racing.

b

[toellandback]

Thanks Pru,

What I’m looking for is a snap shot to the postion in the race. (not clear in my original post)

Held up prominent etc etc.

I was looking around the net at various racing stat sites and came accross this site http://www.patternform.co.uk/

what you do is click on race card for the day and then click on which ever race you fancy and in the top right corner there is a link that says pace. Hope that is what you were looking for. Not sure if its any good you’ll have to let us know.

Cheers.

[Monster]

Does anyone know where I can get stats regarding the likley pace that a horse will set during the race?

I’ve been working on my own but finding it difficult to keep records.

Any help appreciated

Thanks

Hi Onefurlong

There are very good pace ratings at Fracsoft.com You will need to register with a username and password, but they are free. At the top of the race card are stats for Front Runners, Midfield and Hold up runners in past races over Course and Distance.

There also good Pace ratings on the smartersig site but you need to subscribe.

I normally use the data in a bar chart in draw order. The attached link is an example of how to make the best use of theFracsoft data. For instance if a particular draw has an advantage i.e. against the rail and you may be interested in having a runner with the pace to grab the rail. By having the data in graphic form, its easier to spot likely contenders for the rail.

http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dd9jxt6q_22d2pv5bfx

Good Luck

Monster

[onefurlongout]

Cheers guys for all your suggestions, all very helpful indeed.

bcsim999 I totally agree with your brief summary. The only additional point I would make would be that a single front runner might be the fastest horse in the race and with a good lead it might be difficult to peg back.

[Author]

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