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I was just wondering what experience anyone has had backing certain jockeys eg in form/experienced when they go to a meeting for just the one ride.
I remember earlier this year Jack Kennedy came over to England for one ride in a bang average event at an SP of 9/4. I thought about backing when I heard he had this ride (5 minutes before the race) but decided I’d missed a good earlier price and left it alone. It won fairly comfortably.
Then there was the week of the Ebor festival this year when I noticed Tom Eaves wasn’t riding any of Kevin Ryan’s horses on the day at York but had one ride in a low level race elsewhere (Chepstow, I think??) and that one was 12/1 overnight. I wasn’t that excited about its form so forgot all about it only for it to win at 7/1.I was a bit annoyed so I backed two horses the next day who had jockeys on for one ride and they came nowhere. I didn’t even look at the form.
Anyway, I’ve got a couple of free bets to throw away and I’ll also use a bit of my own money to back 3 tomorrow at small stakes. All 3 have jockeys with just the one ride. I have looked at the current form of all 3 but I went all out lazy and didn’t compare it with the form of its rivals but the pieces of form piqued my interest.Plumpton
310 – Saint Contest (Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson) 4/1
340 – Miss Mayfair (Lawney Hill/Aidan Coleman) 9/2
Wolverhampton
400 – One Big Surprise (Richard Hughes/Shane Kelly) 12/1There are a couple more out there for example Joe Fanning at Wolverhampton on Custard The Dragon in the 230 but the form wasn’t inspiring me. Watch that one romp home and the 3 I have backed blow out.
It doesn’t matter much either way, just a bit of fun for the start of the week.Has anyone had much luck using this route?
Interesting Chivers, you should put this in “Systems”, and run with, see how it goes.
I might just look into it further and collate all the results of each day with any jockey at a meeting for one ride (barring amateurs and most claimers).
I won’t be backing many, if any, as I don’t bet in races below class 3 on the flat and below class 2 NH as a rule.
Gives me something to do instead of binging on Netflix shows.
Billion and the geeks in the ‘system’ section would know more
I think they do very well however are probably over-bet and on the whole shorter then they should be because of the ‘one ride’ factorGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
If one wins or two place then I’ll definitely create a system based on virtual bets. Ta for the direction.
Billion and the geeks in the ‘system’ section would know more
I think they do very well however are probably over-bet and on the whole shorter then they should be because of the ‘one ride’ factorGEEK! Geek indeed am I now?
Sadly I cannot offer any thoughts on this as I am only now scratching the surface of the top track trainer running just one horse at the specific meeting. How it would work with the venues top strike rate jockey with only one ride becomes even more food for thought.
GEEK, he has got a blinkin’ nerve that Nathan.
Billy's Outback Shack
Plumpton
310 – Saint Contest (Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson) 4/1
340 – Miss Mayfair (Lawney Hill/Aidan Coleman) 9/2
Wolverhampton
400 – One Big Surprise (Richard Hughes/Shane Kelly) 12/1Saint Contest fell again but I reckon would have challenged at the least but would have had a hard task beating Master Burbidge.
Miss Mayfair was a convincing winner and came in at 11/2 with the 12.50 each way free bet.
One Big Surprise wasn’t a surprise result in the end having gone out to 22/1 and from stall 10 it was probably ideal to scratch that one off the list.
I predicted Joe Fanning’s one ride wouldn’t come off on Custard The Dragon and that was a good one to write off.Total money spent: £40 (not including £30 in free bets) £85.something returned. Not too shabby.
The one I am slapping myself on the bollox for is the Gordon Elliot horse at Leicester with the booking of Dickie Johnson. I decided to leave trainers out of the equation but this one should not have been sniffed at and he hosed in at 9/4. Muppet.
Anyway, I’m transferring this to the systems page.Betting this system indiscriminately since 2003 would have been costly. Strike rate varies from 7.11 to 9.53 in 2015 when a £1 on every qualifier at SP would result in a loss of £9599.06. Think of the number of journeymen jocks every day riding a virtual no-hoper just to try somehow to cling to the dream.
Used selectively it could probably do better. Backing every qualifier under Richard Johnson since 2003:
377 bets
93 wins
£36.94 + SP
£49.79 + Betfair SPSuccessful but not much to show after 15 years.
Billion and the geeks in the ‘system’ section would know more
I think they do very well however are probably over-bet and on the whole shorter then they should be because of the ‘one ride’ factorGEEK! Geek indeed am I now?
Sadly I cannot offer any thoughts on this as I am only now scratching the surface of the top track trainer running just one horse at the specific meeting. How it would work with the venues top strike rate jockey with only one ride becomes even more food for thought.
GEEK, he has got a blinkin’ nerve that Nathan.
Not at all would I ever call you a geek old bean.
I consider a geek to be one of an expert in the chosen subject. I was referring to the likes of MrE, elcartero, rab etc but not you silly billy, hence why I wrote Billion and the geeks. Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
‘Used selectively’ is pretty much the way I’m going to go about it. There is quite a few that have just the one ride tomorrow but no names that would stand out to me as making the special journey because they’re very confident of being onto a winner.
Looking at the rides I plucked out for today there was one error in the selection of Shane Kelly. No disrespect to him of course but he’s not the sort of “household” name I was looking for. It looked like Aidan Coleman had made the special trip for a winner and the Wayne Hutchinson one is a bit different as he is retained by Alan King (please tell me if I’m wrong on that).
It’s like Jim Crowley tomorrow has only the one ride at Lingfield, in a maiden, drawn stall 12 for John Gosden. There’s an Al Maktoum horse in the race so I initially thought “why is he not on that” but then on closer inspection the Gosden horse is owned by Ms. Hissa Hamdan Al Maktoum. Retained riders can be a dodgy one, which is what I found out earlier this year as I mentioned in an earlier post about losing money on ‘one ride’ jockeys. That was Oisin Murphy for Qatar racing and Jamie Spencer for Mrs. Fitri Hay (not sure if retained but certainly a close affiliation).
Anyway, there is 3 I have picked out for tomorrow which will be put on the systems page in due course. Kudos for the stats
Kelly rides a lot for Richard Hughes, he’s not too bad.
Hughes rates him as a jockey, possibly because like Hughes he’s last off the bridle most of the time. I’ve noticed that more than most stables his runners seem to drift badly or get quite well backed. I remember a year or so ago one horse opening up at about 8’s drifting out to about 16’s before coming in again and going off at about 4’s 2nd fav and lost. I can’t remember the name off the top of my head but put a thread up about it. I’ll take a look in a moment.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I should have added it was also owing to the fact the horse was drawn 12 in a 6f sprint. It’s one that should have been easily put to the side.
Nathan you dig an even bigger hole!
You consider a GEEK to be an expert and then exclude me from the geek group.
Mind you . . . . perhaps you are right
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Billy's Outback Shack
Yes not a direct science of a system and judgment involved as you have stated above. Could have had 1/1 instead of 1/3. Hutchinson is retained by King since the retirement of Choc Thornton so he could have been discounted. Coleman rides for a number of trainers including a few for Jonjo and has ridden for Venetia Williams for years. Not sure if he’s retained by any trainer/owner. But he’s a good enough jockey to have been able to turn the ride down if he didn’t think it had a good chance. It didn’t look like the punters latched on to this as the Price went out.
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