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Hi Soap a few of the members have been gossiping and it turns out that Mr Gibbs was betting £1000 a point anyway he’s cashed in and is lapping up the sun on a 6 month vacation in the caribbean. Woman, pina colada’s you name it……….
http://images.paraorkut.com/img/pics/glitters/h/holidays-7255.gif
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Haha, very good Nathan, although you’ve unearthed my plan for next year!
Soap, I should probably still post on this thread as i’ve had a pretty average last few weeks, but i’m still posting every day on my blog http://www.becherbrook.blogspot.com at 11.30am each day.
Now i’m back up and running properly after an August break, I’ve decided there is no harm in posting my blog picks here, so i’ll do that daily at about 11:30 for anyone thats interested.
I’ve still got a few shares left in a filly called Chilworth Lass, in training with Sheena West having been with Mick Channon. Time and again Sheena has demonstrated what she can do with modest ex Channon horses, and hopefully this filly will be no exception. Hi Note at Fontwell yesterday being yet another example. I do it all at cost, so i’m not making any money from it, and it’s a low cost way of having some fun in a horse. We’ve done alright with Shilpa who cost a grand, and this one wasn’t much more, if she wins as well i’ll be delighted. Details here
http://becherbrook.blogspot.com/2011/09/chilworth-lass-shares-available.html
I just love big field, low grade, 7f handicaps with cut in the grade, I just hope I like them as much after today (if not more)
NEWCASTLE
3:20 – Cut The Cackle – 1pt each way at 28/1 (Boylesports, 25’s various), have an extra 0.5pt each way if she is 33/1 with anyone at any point (I’ll send an e-mail if she reaches that, and I spot it!)
CUT THE CACKLE is a mare I’ve often wanted to back, and indeed I think she did me a good turn years ago when trained by Peter Winkworth, but in the last 12 months or so, she’s not really been running in the right races, for all that she does appear to have lost her form.
With respect to Paddy Butler, he had a nightmare with her for the majority of last season, running her over 5f and even one go at 10f, after she’d won over 7f at Kempton for Peter Winkworth in the summer.
She did eventually return to that C&D but by then she’d had a long season and I’m willing to forgive some very flat runs late last year. Before that she’d shown enough at Brighton and Windsor, often the wrong trips, to suggest she retains ability, and now with Richard Guest I’d expect her to do better.
She won last year off 70, and had won off 82 in the past, now she is down to 58, and she is dangerous off that mark. At first glance she didn’t shape well on her debut for the yard last time, a few weeks ago at Wolverhampton, but she was ridden from the front that day, and this mare likes to pass horses. It was her first run for a while, so I suspect she’ll come on a lot for that, and I’ll be surprised if she isn’t ridden with more restraint this time (I hope so anyway).
I doubt she’d want heavy ground, but some cut is absolutely fine, and when on song she travels very well, and on this ground, she could well gain confidence from seeing others floundering by halfway. A lot of people seem to think the Guest yard is a big gambling stable and they only win when they are backed, I know first hand that whilst they do like a punt on occasions, many of their horses win when seemingly unfancied, and I wouldn’t let big prices about this one put you off.
3:50 – Honest Buck – 2pt each way at 25/1 (various, 22’s/20’s acceptable)
Now here we have one I’ve been keeping an eye on for a while, HONEST BUCK, I think he’s in the right race today, so here’s hoping he proves me right.
This horse showed some ability in all three of his maidens, the first at the end of last season, and two at the beginning of this. I thought he’d definitely win a little handicap off a mark in the mid 50’s, but to my mind he’s not really had a chance as yet.
He was running on very nicely in the closing stages over 6f on fast ground at Redcar on his first try in a handicap. Next time at Ayr he was slowly away and never in the hunt at all, and he didn’t appear to handle the turn and the undulations very well, again on quick ground. Last time he ran at Southwell and as everyone should do, one bad run there is always best ignored.
All his maiden form was on good, or good to soft ground, and the progeny of Chineur are twice as successful on soft ground as they are on good to firm, and looking at his action, I’ve no doubt he’ll go well on it too. I think he stays a mile at this stage, and although he seems to go well enough being ridden with restraint, I wouldn’t mind if they made more use of him here either, so I he’s adaptable in terms of tactics.
It’s competitive enough for the grade, but at 25/1 I think he stands out as being massively overpriced, he’s clearly risky, but I think he’s double what he should be, and offers good value.
NEWTON ABBOT
5:00 – Orion Express – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various)
This is competitive with many regulars over this course and distance battling it out once again. The mare Tiger Line is very frustrating, and whether she’ll quite see it out over 3m3f, I have my doubts, Tigger is another with stamina to prove over this trip, and again I just think he could be found wanting close home.
For no other reason than the price, I think you’ve got to side with ORION EXPRESS. I did a tissue for this race last night, and had him down at 8/1, you can get 14/1 currently, and that looks a bit too big about a horse that has twice won over this C&D, and whom showed a bit last time over shorter here.
He often runs well at this time of year, and has a decent win strike rate over hurdles, for one of his ability. I think it’s interesting, that aged ten and the veteran of over 50 hurdle starts, is being tried in a tongue tie for the first time, if that helps him in anyway, he’s on a fair enough mark, and as I said, whilst I couldn’t be at all confident in a race like this, he is the one that looks overpriced.
Hi Robert
Welcome back to TRF. Been an avid reader of your blog while you’ve been away…in my favourites at work and always bring it up over lunch.
Re the new syndicate horse, would normally have bitten your hand off but my own job situation not great (Unsure whether Ill have job after end of this year) However noticed you were offering 1% share but with it comes less benefits. Will email you seperately re this.
Anyway, I’ve also now started my own thread re football under general sports in TRF and results so far are seeing me a little in profit. Therefore hoping i can build a following even if it only attracts say 10% of what yours was on her
Great to see you back on TRF
yorkiedips
Well they all ran deplorably yesterday for one reason or another, a day to forget.
I’ve been waiting to see what the weather might be doing to the ground today, as Lingfield’s turf course in particular looks likely to receive a fair bit more rain before the off, hence slightly shorter write ups.
LINGFIELD
3:10 – Camache Queen – 2pt win at 8/1 (SJ, good luck! 15/2 B365, Hills, 7’s various)
One of the more interesting races of the day and there are reasons to think Dennis Coakley’s filly CAMACHE QUEEN can get off the mark for the season.
Most of her rivals have been busy this year, but she comes here relatively fresh having had just the four starts so far.
She went close on her reappearance at Windsor over 6f, and fared well enough at Newbury on ground that was probably a little lively for her. A better effort followed at Carlisle, where she just didn’t quite finish her race off, and last time she pulled too hard off a slow early gallop.
She ran well at this venue on the turf last season, and I think the 7f straight course here, on ground that will probably have a little cut in it (good ground is fine too) are her ideal conditions. We know from her Windsor run she can win off this mark, and she is the sort Eddie Ahern gets on well with. She won in this month last year, and with fillies in particular, it often pays to take note of that, as some do thrive at certain times of the season.
Oil Strike frustrates me and probably many others, he is a talented little horse, but nearly always has some excuse or other. Were this over 6f I probably would have gone with him, and although he probably just sees out this trip, and he does act with cut, the combination could leave him vulnerable to a finisher close home.
5:10 – Carlton Scroop – 2pt win at 9/1 (SJ, again good luck, 8’s various)
CARLTON SCROOP is what he is, they’re no secrets with him, but he does know how to win, and it’s really his stamina that could win him this race, providing connections make the most of it.
I don’t doubt for a moment that Safari Team has the most ability out of this lot, but whether he really stays this far is open to debate, and I’m not convinced. In fact I think all four of the bottom horses have their stamina to prove. Agilete is in the “bounce” factor zone, which puts me off him and Sunset Boulevard isn’t good enough. Dream of Fortune will run his race and I’m sure will be thereabouts, but he’s not won for a while now and seems more content to let someone else take the glory these days.
I want to see Carlton Scroop set off in front here, and really wind things up from halfway, he stays much further than this, and will be in with a real shout if he’s ridden positively, any other tactics will not play to his strengths, but to those of his rivals. If I knew for certain he would be ridden from the front I would have a larger bet, but alas I don’t!
SEDGEFIELD
4:50 – Floreana – 3pt win at 4/1 (various) Kayaka – 0.75pt each way at 18/1 (various, 16’s acceptable)
A quite shocking marathon handicap chase, lovely stuff! I’m taking on Red Dynamite, I don’t see him as a stout stayer over 2m6f and I’ve major doubts as to whether he’ll see this out, granted he won’t have to see it out properly given the opposition, but even so!
Shuttle Diplomacy is interesting, but i’ve been thinking that for a while, and it’s really more her yard, and their record with such horses in recent times, on the face of it, she won’t be winning, and again has stamina to prove. The old boy Toulouse Express is still capable of winning a race like this, but backing him at single figure odds in any race is something I’m loathed to do.
Floreana is an honest mare, more often seen in Hunter Chases and Point to Points until recently. She has her fair share of weight here, and in most over races you’d certainly find something better handicapped, but in the grand scheme of things, she looks the one to side with in this. She came to grief last time, but she is a sound jumper in the main, she isn’t a real slowcoach but does will stay this far, and out of everything in this line-up, she looks nailed on to run her race.
Kayaka has shown the odd glimmer in novice hurdles, including at this track, and she looks a thorough stayer. If she jumps well on this chase debut, I can see her plugging on when one or two of these have given it up, and off her feather weight, she could cause a bit of an upset.
Hi Yorkie
Thanks for those kind words, i’ll keep an eye on your thread.
I’ve managed to sell the majority of Chilworth Lass now, after Sheena and ATR did such a good job on selling her with regard to her record with ex Channon horses, at Fontwell on Sunday.
I’ll drop you a message on here, but if you contact me via e-mail in the interim, let me know it’s you!
It’s the first day of the Donny St Leger meeting today, and there is jumping at Uttoxeter, but of the three meetings today it’s Carlisle that interests me most, perhaps one or two are flying under the radar there. I came very close to suggesting small bets on Istan Star and Lady Del Sol as well, if either were available at 20+ on the exchanges, they may be worth a very small nibble! But we’ve already got four selections at Carlisle to be going on with.
CARLISLE
2:10 – No More Games – 1pt each way at 20/1 (Boyles/SJ, 16’s various)
NO MORE GAMES was a bit of an eyecatcher on his racecourse debut at Beverley, although the fact he started in a claimer for this yard, does rather indicate he’s not too highly thought of.
He was slowly away and struggling to go the gallop, and by halfway it looked as though he would finish well beaten. However he stayed on nicely in the closing stages and was only beaten three lengths in the end. Looking at what the others have achieved since, you could argue he ran to a mark of around 65 there, and given he is racing off 56 here, he could be well in.
His second start, back at Beverley on soft ground was disappointing, as he failed to build on his initial run, although it was in maiden company, and a stronger heat. He probably wasn’t in the best position that day, and I’m fairly certain it wasn’t the ground that beat him, so will forgive him that.
He then ran at Thirsk a few days later, and found it all happening too quickly over 5f there, the race possibly coming to soon as well, a classic case of an unsuitable third run for a handicap mark.
I think he’ll appreciate this step up to 6f and he has Julie Burke in the saddle for the first time, he appeals as the sort that will run for her (she seemingly has a magic touch with some sprinters) and although this is a wide open event, he makes a fair bit of appeal.
4:30 – Indian Giver – 2pt each way at 12/1 (various, 11’s/10’s acceptable)
I really liked INDIAN GIVER as a two year old last season, she was very consistent after her initial efforts, and showed a really good attitude, the yard wouldn’t have had many two year old winners, so it’s too her credit she managed to score as a juvenile.
Her victory came on really testing ground at Newcastle, and she’ll have no trouble with conditions today. As most of you will know by now, one of my favourite angles is backing a horse I think is overpriced because of a poor last run, when I’m fairly confident I know why they ran badly, and she fits into that category.
She wasn’t seen until last month, when making a satisfactory comeback on heavy ground. She was beaten nearly twelve lengths that day, but still finished third of eight, and I’m sure she was in need of the outing. For some reason they ran her again, here over C&D five days later, and she ran very flat, as I would have expected.
She’s had three weeks to recover, and should now be spot on for this. She ran well at this venue on a few occasions last year, looks on a winnable mark, and has the services of a certain Paul Hanagan in the saddle, she’s a cracking bet at double figure odds.
5:00 – Funky Munky – 1pt each way at 20/1 (Various, 18’s acceptable)
Low grade stuff but FUNKY MUNKY makes a bit of appeal off his basement mark for a trainer who I greatly respect.
This horse was formerly with Alan Swinbank, and I think he has a lot of his fully tuned up for their initial starts, and most don’t improve over time. That looks the case with this one, so It’s probably more a case of the change of yard freshening him up, rather than getting a heap of improvement out of him.
He has run a few promising races over hurdles for Alistair this year, without setting the world alight, one thing he has shown though is that he will stay this trip and further on the flat.
Although his win came of good ground, his best run in the last year was on heavy ground at Ayr when runner up over this trip, and given that a lot in this field are unproven on soft, that counts for a lot. I’m sure he needed his run here last month, over a mile on good ground, and I’m expecting a much better showing this time around.
Smart Violetta is the obvious one, but she’s plenty short enough and helps to mark the market.
5:30 – Luv U Noo – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various, 12’s acceptable)
I don’t really need to introduce you to LUV U NOO, whom I’ve put up twice in the last couple of months, most recently at Chepstow last time, where she was slowly away and never got seriously involved in the race.
I’ve regretted abandoning a few horses this year, Circuitous and Hot Rod Mamma being recent examples (I put the latter up on her two runs prior to her five run winning streak) and I think I need to give this mare another chance to prove she is better than last time.
Despite being slowly away I would still have expected better, but one positive is that she didn’t have a hard race there, and this intermediate trip over 1m1f (and a bit) could prove spot on for her.
She stayed a mile well last season, and Dale Swift seemed to get on well enough with her. She’ll handle the ground, and I’m still convinced she has a race in her off this mark.
UTTOXETER
4:05 – Carndonagh – 0.75pt each way at 33/1 (various, 28’s acceptable)
This is a speculative one, but CARNDONAGH looks a little interesting here, and is one of three Sowersby runners in this.
He’s not been with the yard long, having been picked up cheaply at the May sales, but I thought his first run at Market Rasen for them, was promising, even though he was beaten nearly thirty lengths in the end.
That race was full of in-form horses and he ran very much as though he would come on a lot for it. I’ve gone back and watched his novice hurdle runs for Malcolm Jefferson, and to me he shapes like a stayer, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t turn out to be a three miler. He had a couple of bits of fair form last season, most notably when not beaten far behind Lake Legend and Pure Faith.
He’s finished in front of horses that are now rated around where he is currently, and although he might need a little more help from the handicapper, I think he has the ability to win off 103.
DONCASTER
5:20 – Drift and Dream – 1.5pt each way at 11/1 (B365, SJ, 10’s various)
DRIFT AND DREAM clearly needed her reappearance the other day at Sandown, but she showed her usual zip in the early part of the race, and I’m expecting an improved showing this afternoon, on faster ground, which probably suits her better.
She is typical of the sort Chris Wall does well with and Ted Durcan, who struck up a good relationship with her last season, is back aboard.
She wasn’t beaten far behind Kanaf at Sandown last season off 82, and I’m sure she still has improvement in her, so a mark of 80 certainly isn’t beyond her.
Having never raced in a field of larger than twelve, I’ll be interested to see how she gets on here, but she gave the impression last season that she rather enjoyed weaving in between horses (was brave in coming up the rail at Sandown on one occasion) and therefore I have no concerns on that front.
This is obviously competitive, but we know where we are with most of them, and I think this filly has a touch of class about her, which could ultimately see her placed in listed company, if that’s the case she should be going close in this.
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