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Cheers Fitzer, Tuffers i’d probably make more money spending an hour in a goldmine than with my head buried in the form! and Yorkie I didn’t do the double, i rarely do multiples, but it was still a good day!
It goes without saying yesterday was a good one, but I won’t bore you, or allow myself to wallow in it for long. Given that the first selection refused (it was always a possibility) and that Emerald Glade looked like she’d never seen a hurdle before, I was just happy when Doctor Parkes won. Spanish Bounty was strongly supported before the off, and possibly the stable agreed with me that he was very well treated! Two horses with fair ratings, not my usual modus operandi, but it was a Monday!
Total P/L +233.79
PONTEFRACT
3:40
TORRAN SOUND is 4lb out of the handicap in this 2m5f marathon, but odds of 20/1 more than reflect that and he is worth chancing. It was a poor maiden handicap he won at Chepstow, but that was over 2m2f, and as he stayed that far as a three year old, I don’t have any concerns about him lasting home here. Luke Morris put up 2lb over that day, and racing from 4lb wrong here he is effectively racing off a 9lb higher mark. He and Cubism pulled a long way clear on that occasion and I don’t think his task is insurmountable, given that four year olds get a 6lb allowance in this, which could be deemed rather generous, and Ryan Powell takes off 5lb. He ran well over this trip at Huntingdon over hurdles on soft ground, but was disappointing last time over 3m at Exeter, fading late on. He pulled far too hard during that race, something he is unlikely to do here as Dan Buoy is unlikely to be hanging around. Descaro is obviously still on an upward curve and Terenzium is looking well treated at the moment, but the majority of these are very exposed and there might be just a bit more to come from Torran Sound over this marathon trip, for whom the ground isn’t a issue either.
4:40
This is pretty competitive, with the unexposed Private Joke and Hail Bold Chief who kept improving last season being obvious contenders. RALEIGH QUAY has ran well here a couple of times before and was a little eyecatching over the sharp 7f at Thirsk last time. A return to 1m at this track will be much more suitable for him, and although still 3lb than when he won last summer, he is now 3lb lower than when he finished runner up here in September. He does like to run past horses, tactics which can get you into trouble around here, especially on the turn into the straight. Kelly Harrison has never ridden him before, but I can see him going well for her and Aussie Blue shold ensure a good gallop. The yard had a winner over hurdles the other day, and 14’s looks a fair price in what is, as i’ve already said, a fairly competitive handicap.
3:40 – Torran Sound – 1pt each way at 20/1 (Skybet, Boylesports, bog, or 18’s with Betfred, bog)
4:40 – Raleigh Quay – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various, bog)FONTWELL
3:20
King Kasyapa is making the market for everything else in this race, and I’m taking him on by laying him and backing HEREDITARY. The Peter Bowen horse does look well in based on his Wincanton effort, if that truly does herald a return to form of two seasons ago. Personally I think backing a horse with his overall profile at around 6/4 is madness in a race like this, and whilst he is the most likely winner, I was thinking in terms of 5/2, so he has to be a lay. He was beaten at Wincanton by Flying Award who had won the time before and it’s fair form for the grade, but less than twelve lengths seperated the first five, and thats only because a few faded at the death.
Hereditary himself has comeback from a long layoff this season, and not yet with the same degree of success, but his run here in March wasn’t without promise and if he can build a little more on that down another 5lb, in this weaker race he is no forlorn hope. Both his career victories have been at this track, over 2m2f, but this trip seems more appropriate these days, and he was runner up over C&D in October 2009 on good/good to firm ground. He clearly needed the outing at Folkestone in February, but as I said, his run here over 2m4f last month wasn’t too bad, he stayed on having got outpaced that day in a slightly stronger race, won by I Can Run Can You. Forget his run on the flat last time in an apprentice race, he was out the back over 1m4f and was badly hampered before the turn in, and just never got into the race. He’s now had three runs back from his break, so can’t have any excuses on account of fitness and from this mark, at this favourite venue, over a suitable trip, he is worth backing at 25’s (33’s was around earlier).3:20 – Hereditary – 1pt each way at 25/1 (Hills, bog, or Corals, Blue Sq, would accept 20’s)
I’m about to leave for Epsom, and it’s Wincanton tomorrow, so the this might be updated late tonight (very late, Spurs v Arsenal this evening, as it’ll be quite an early start in the morning.
Ok onto today’s selections, and i’m much happier now i’ve not got Pontefract to deal with. I’m not a superstitious person, but I can think of good results i’ve had at nearly every track in the country, but I just can’t think of anything that stands out at Pontefract!
If I had posted last night I would have suggested Gaily Noble at 40’s for the 3:45 at Epsom, he ran well here last year, and I think he’ll stay this far at this track, and he’s fairly handicapped these days. As i’m going I will have small investment in a few of the races, but nothing really stands out, although all of the handicaps are interesting, the sprint looks very tough to call, my vote just goes to Fratellino.
Total P/L +227.79
HEREFORD
4:05
I won’t trust the ground until i’ve seen the first race (good to firm apparently) but whether it is good to firm or good to soft, or something in between, I think DRUSSELL will handle it, and i’m giving him another chance after I also selected him at Uttoxeter last time. Whilst he clearly wasn’t going to trouble the leader that day, he was badly impeded at the second last, and I think if you halve the distance he was finally beaten by, you’ll get a truer picture as he wasn’t ridden aggressively after that incident. Most of his runs have been on softer ground, but he did won on good ground at Ayr, and arguably travelled better than he ever has that day, so I don’t think conditions will inconvienience him. The 2m4f trip around here shouldn’t be an issue, and I was encouraged by how he went through the race at Uttoxeter, showing a lot more of his old sparkle.
Not many of his rivals are in much form, Big Robert ran well here at the last meeting, and Top Achiever didn’t fare too badly in the same race, on a second quick run after an absence. I’m not sure they will be going too quickly early on here, as there isn’t a natural front runner, and that should suit Drussell who is an uncomplicated type, whilst a few of these are known for taking not being the easiest to settle during the early part of their races.4:40
My initial thoughts on this race were to leave it alone, as I’ve backed no less than eight of the eleven runners in the past twelve months, some more successfully than others, and I wasn’t sure i’d be able to have an objective view on it. But because I know so much about them, it should help me get a positive result. Peqeno Diablo is dropping like a stone in the handicap and tempted me in a little last time. A further 5lb drop is helpful obviously, but he’s had a soft lead the last twice and still been fairly well beaten. Another 5lb off will get him down to 90 and then may be the time to back him, perhaps over this trip at Newton Abbot in a few weeks time, keep your eyes peeled. Diddley Dee won’t stay this trip, next. Sumner didn’t want to make the running last time, and ran too free as a result. This comes quickly enough after that effort and the trip is a concern. Border Lad did me a big favour here when winning his first race, but the handicapper looks to have him now, and this faster ground isn’t sure to help his cause either. Bollywood is very modest and is still 8lb higher than when winning at this time last year over 2m4f at Wincanton. Carys’s Lad i’ve backed the last twice, and last time he ran a very odd race. After not travelling from an early stage, he consented to run on late in the day and wasn’t beaten far in the end. That’s not his normal style of running, but if he repeats that i’m not convinced Mark Bradburne is the right jockey to have aboard, and whilst I will be annoyed if he does win, i’ve given him his chances and at the price he can run without my money this time around. There is a chance Ginolad could do better now over hurdles, but it’s not really his jumping of fences that has been a problem, so I have my doubts. Rossbrin is just about the most likely to run his race having found some consistency of late, and conditions aren’t a problem, but he’s plenty short enough in the market. Grand Fella and Sam’s Pride look to have it all to do on all known evidence.
THE WEE MIDGET is therefore the selection. I know Arthur Whiting’s horses always improve for their first outing after a break, and given that, he run here over C&D three weeks ago was most encouraging. He was beaten eleven lengths into fifth place behind the handicap good thing E Street Boy, but the first five pulled clear, with twenty six lengths back to the sixth horse. He looked on good terms with himself that day, but was probably too fresh and that should have brought him on nicely. He is only 3lb higher than when winning at Towcester in October, is still relatively unexposed in comparision to his rivals, and should appreciate the better ground. His dam Fragrant Rose won two races here (just thought i’d throw that in) and heres hoping he follows in her footsteps, he’s overpriced to do so anyway.4:05 – Drussell – 2pts each way at 8/1 (various, bog)
4:40 – The Wee Midget – 2pts each way at 8/1 (Coral or Skybet, 8’s had gone by the time i’d posted on here, 7’s acceptable)NEWCASTLE
7:05
I’m excited (sad I know) I’ve found one that not many people will have, and it’s not one i’d originally noted down. LADY LUBE RYE has form figures of 06/009-0, she’s from a small stable and has with due respect, an unfashionable jockey aboard in Duran Fentiman. She wasn’t a bad little two year old in 2009, and she was an early one, running three times in April, improving each time, culminating in a Redcar maiden win. After two lesser efforts, three solid ones followed at Haydock, York and Musselburgh, all in fair nurseries off a mark of 67. That season ended with two quieter efforts, and she only appeared three times last season. After not being totally disgraced first time at Haydock, she was stepped up to 6f at Ayr, and ran well until fading inside the final furlong. For some strange reason she tried a mile in June on her final start, and quite predictably, she didn’t get home (by some margin). Given she was a precocious two year old filly, you have expected that she would struggle at three, but I assume she had a few problems, and only once, on her reappearance did she run over 5f, which appears to be her trip. Here over C&D twelve days ago she completely missed the break and lost four or five lenths to start with. She was beaten less than six lengths, wasn’t given too hard a time in the final furlong, and as horses from this yard tend to improve for their seasonal debut, all in all it wasn’t that bad an effort. Well she’s been dropped 2lb more, having fallen 11lb for three starts last season, which means she races off 47 here, just 47. I honestly believe she has enough ability to win off that mark, whether it’s today who knows, but it’s not that strong a contest, and the stable have had a couple of winners lately, Ingleby Star won the race the selection ran in the other day here, and that was his second run back, and Hunters Belt won at Wetherby over hurdles on Sunday, having also had a previous start. Last time was the only time in her career that she’d blown the start, so thats not a major concern, and if she does get away on terms, I honestly think she is way overpriced. Thats the reason i’m going 1.5pt each way, not because I think she’s the most likely winner, clearly she isn’t, but she, in my opinion, is about twice the price she should be, and when I think that, I have to go in strong, even if she is still an outsider.
7:05 – Lady Lube Rye – 1.5pt each way at 25/1 (various, bog)
SOUTHWELL
These two are very speculative, both are similar in terms of their level of ability, in that they don’t have much, but I think both have just enough to win the kind of race they are in today. They will both probably be struggling after a furlong or two, but in the past they have indicated that if and when things drop right for them, a modest race may come their way. You’ll probably be better off backing them at double the price in running not long after the off, but at the current prices i’m happy to stick them both on here to small (very) stakes.
2:45
The first division of the 0-55 7f handicap and CHARITY FAIR is at the foot of the handicap. This filly was with Alan Berry at two and three, a handicap to start with, and after several starts I was of the opinion that another trainer might be able to squeeze a win out of her. She was sold for 1,500 guineas in December as in now with Ron Barr, not a household name but he does get better results with his small string than Alan Berry. The pattern of her races is she gets herself pretty much tailed off in flat race terms and then when in the mood she often makes up a lot of headway late on in the day. Her better efforts have come with cut in the ground, and I think she’ll handle the surface, although whether she’ll face the kickback is anyones guess. I think this is her trip, and it’s safe to ignore her Wolverhampton run for this yard the other day. 6f around there would be too sharp, and carrying ten stone in an amateur riders event wouldn’t be ideal as she’s a tiny filly. If Natalia Gemelova doesn’t give up the ghost, I think she’ll be closer at the line than she is at halfway, and if you take Dashwood out, she won’t find a weaker race than this. I’ve just got it in my head that in a race like this she is capable of running them down, predicting when that will be is the hard part, but she’s had a run now, is in better hands and at 33/1 the chance is worth taking.
3:20
The second division and again i’m going for the one at the bottom of the weights, another four year old filly, this time MARSH’S GIFT. This one actually started with Ron Barr, then went to Michael Smith and has been with Colin Teague for a few runs now. She is similar to Charity Fair in running style, but she has had experience of the track, running three times here at the back end of last year. The first time in a handicap over 6f, in which she was eyecatching, making a lot of headway after a slow start and getting outpaced. The other two starts were in maidens and she was predictably outclassed, although on her last run she did again show a little ability. At both Thirsk and Beverley last season she hinted that a small race may come her way, and I think this is her trip. This is probably the stronger of the two divisions, and she hasn’t run for 160 days, so again she is very speculative, but she is also 33/1, and I would kick myself if she popped up today, without having had a very small wager.
2:45 – Charity Fair – 0.5pt each way at 33/1 (various, bog)
3:20 – Marsh’s Gift – 0.5pt each way at 33/1 (various, bog)A small profit on Wednesday thanks to The Wee Midget (using 7/1) although it’s a shame the favourite came out, meaning a 25p rule 4 deduction
A first trip to Wincanton for almost exactly ten years awaits me (27th April 2001 to be precise) A day that saw Timmy Murphy give the old horse I part owned a strange ride, Paul Nicholls had the first five winners, three ridden by Joe Tizzard, two by Paddy Brennan, and a card which had two divisions of the bumper, and yet despite that they were worth more than the one today! If only the Sporting Life forecast of 4/6 for Miss Overdrive in the first was true, or even the 8/15 predicted by the Racing Post, if so i’d be having a rare bet at odds-on, but alas no she’ll be 2/7 or thereabouts. It should be an enjoyable day, but the card has cut up, and i’ll be happy to watch without getting too financially involved.
Just the one bet, and it’s actually on the Folkestone card. I should be posting on Friday about my plan for the blog in the long term, if not it’ll be included on Saturday morning, with that days selections.
Total P/L +230.89
FOLKESTONE
4:00
MISTER BIT didn’t see the racecourse until August last year, and that was his only run on turf to date. I have noticed him a few times in his races at Lingfield, and it’s fair to say he does look to be a bit of a "character". He has had a tendency to hit a bit of a flat spot in his races, only to run on again, and the first time blinkers may well have the desired effect in sharpening him up for the duration of the race. He is related to horses that have won on turf, his dam won on firm ground, and being by Tobougg I can’t see any obvious reason why he won’t handle conditions, looking at his action you’d say fast ground ought not to be a problem. I get the distinct impression that purely on abililty he is better than his rivals, and i’m really pinning my hopes on the application of headgear to spark him into life. He has shown a good turn of foot on more than one occasion, and that could make the difference in this. Final Try may try and make the running again, but even if they don’t go much of a gallop, Mister Bit hasn’t shown any sign of being keen in the slowly run races around Lingfield, so however the race pans out, he should be able to adapt.
Four of his six rivals have won races, but only Derby Desire has won on the turf. Most of these are all-weather specialists, but Vezere aside, they are all exposed and having dropped a few pounds for his return from a winter break last time, Mister Bit could be on a low enough mark to strike.4:00 – Mister Bit – 1pt win at 6/1 or better
Great shout there Robert
It was actually matched at 310 in-running (for pennies) on the machine as they took the last bend
Incredible tipping. The race even panned out as expected with the horse hitting a flat spot and the odds drifting out in running before it came back to win.
I was surprised the horse drifted to double digit odds before the off, although it looked to have little chance on the bare form figures. But it was an opportunity to top up my tiny bet so I am very grateful.
Another good ride from Luke Morris who is now second in the jockeys championship.
- Total Posts 17716
Excellent stuff mate, I backed your selection today and really pleased that I did.
Thanks a lot
thanks for your information robert you pulled me out today,have been doing your selections this last while you have been very good,also joined twitter just to keep up with your posts,brilliant work mate hope you dont give up any time soon,iv seen tipsters then i seen you top notch mate,please keep it up
Thanks for the messages after Mister Bit won on Thursday.
What a busy Saturday, and i’ve got half a dozen selections today (two in the same race). There should have been another one in Beat The Rush, who is in my ten to follow list (see notebook section). He runs in the Musselburgh Gold Cup this afternoon, just as Julie Camacho told me he would, and clearly this has been his early season target. 12/1 last night was a very fair price, and maybe one or two people remembered him from the list and backed him, even 10’s would be fair. However he has been the subject of good support and as I type even 8’s is becoming rare. At his current price it would be wrong of me to suggest backing him, in what is a competitive race, but I really do like this horse, I think he’s got a big handicap in him, and fingers crossed he runs well enough today to suggest a good season awaits him. Major Domo is another from the ten to follow out today, in a four runner maiden at Nottingham, it’s a weak race with a Cecil trained favourite in opposition.
Total P/L +240.89
HAYDOCK
4:35
WILD DESERT should be excused his two starts for Charlie Longsdon so far and he looks the bet at the prices in this competitive fixed brush handicap hurdle. Given that it is being run over the mini fences, it is important to make sure that your chosen horse has a good technique as they won’t get away with clattering these obstacles in the way they do the normal hurdles. I’ve no worries on that score for Wild Desert who is usually a fluent hurdler. On his first start for the stable, he was a bit keen and found 3m too far. Last time at Newbury he was very well backed, and quite simply the promising condition Kielan Woods appeared to get his fractions wrong, setting off too fast, and the horse was a spent force by the time he turned into the straight. I’m a big fan of Felix De Giles, who I think is riding as well as he ever has done at the moment, and I just wonder if they might decide to change tactics and not front run this time. Thats not to say he couldn’t win if he did, but in first time cheekpieces they may decide to try and settle him in amongst horses. He is a real top of the groud horse, who will appreciate the surface here (as long as Kirkland hasn’t forgotten to turn the taps off). The Longsdon horses are in flying form at present with 8 of the last 12 reaching the frame, and Felix could just get the best out of this horse.
Most of his rivals come here in better form. Pure Faith won nicely at Ffos Las last time, but that was an extremely muddling affair. Havingotascoobydo has been raised 12lb for winning at Ludlow, and that looks harsh to me, with Troubletimestwo and Mad Moose filling the places, it wasn’t as strong a race as this looks, and he has it all to do now, on the quickest ground he will have ever encountered.5:10
I was torn between two last night, but having weighed things up, WORTH A KING’S is the selection, he is certainly a bigger price than I was expecting. He has won over this hurdles here before which is a positive, and although that was on soft ground, his action, and the overall balance of his form suggest he does want the ground he gets here today. He’s won on good to firm at Epsom, you only do that if you really can handle fast conditions. Like many second season hurdlers he has struggled this season, but I think he started off in handicaps off a stiff enough mark, and it’s only now that he is able to race off a realistic weight. Throughout the winter he has been held up on soft ground, and more often than not has never really got into the race at any stage, seemingly sulking a little. The return to faster ground should enable him to travel better, and having raced over 3m+ the last twice, a return to 2m4f is also in his favour. His stablemate Pie At Midnight should make the running, but I hope they ride this horse more positively than they have been doing, as I believe that will bring about an improved performance.
Agglestone Rock is very short in the betting, and i’m certainly taking him on at the price. Rifleman was the other one I was considering, as he has won, and finished second for Richard Lee after a break, and personally I don’t think the drop in trip will be a problem for him. However it can’t really be argued that he is well handicapped at this stage of his career, and the form of the yard is also a little offputting.4:35 – Wild Desert – 1pt each way at 12/1 (Corals, Hills, 10’s acceptable)
5:10 – Worth A Kings – 1pt each way at 14/1 (B365, Boylesports,bog or Stan James, 12’s acceptable)NEWTON ABBOT
5:25
The racing post database can be a slightly confusing place at the moment now that they’ve changed all the names, so the jockey/trainer first names are showing. If you click on Lisa O’Neill the rider of VINTAGE FABRIC, her profile suggests she hasn’t ridden a winner. In the back of my mind I thought he had won with a female rider aboard, and after delving a little deeper I found that Lisa has ridden him to success here in the past, but then she was merely L O’Neill on the database!! The two things that stand out in a positive sense about this horse are that he has twice gone well after a break of more than five months, and that he loves Newton Abbot, three of his four victories have come here. I would imagine most people would write him off on account of the trip, as all his wins here have been over 2m3f. It’s fair to say he hasn’t always performed well over this far, although he was second of fifteen at Wincanton over exactly this distance two seasons ago, and he isn’t stopping in his races over shorter. To me the most obvious explanation for his failure to win at this trip so far is simply that he has always been running off too high a mark. Had he been running off today’s mark of 95 (his last winning mark) he may have won over further already. Quite clearly he loves this fast ground, he should be able to sit in behind the likely pacesetter Heir To Be and i’m struggling to find too many negatives for him, he should give a good account, in what is, lets face it a race lacking in solid recent form.
5:25 – Vintage Fabric – 1.5pt each way at 14/1 (SJ, 12’s various acceptable, any double figures would be fine)
NOTTINGHAM
6:30
This isn’t a race to get too involved with, several characters amongst the eleven that line up, including my selection GERTMEGALUSH. He was a speedy and fairly useful two year old, but like they so often do he struggled for the most part last season, and returns here today off a career low mark. After moving to John Harris halfway through the season, they seemed intent on campaigning him over 6f/7f, and by holding him up over that trip. Whilst he may not have been in the best form at the time, i’m convinced he wants to race within a few lengths of the leaders over this minimum trip. The question is whether he breaks well enough to be able to do that as he can sometimes just miss the start. He has flashed his tail a few times, and clearly has his quirks (although not as many as Lees Anthem), and he is the sort of horse who is likely to go well first time up (ran well on racecourse debut, and then after a four month break on his first start at three). Whereas a few of his rivals are certainly capable of winning off their current mark, I just think he is potentially 7lb/10lb better than his current rating implies, and if he gets away on level terms he should go well in this.
6:30 – Gertmegalush – 0.75pt each way at 16/1 (various, bog)
KELSO
6:45
I know some people won’t/don’t like backing two in the same race, but I think two of these standout by a mile at the prices. BOW SCHOOL was disappointing when I sided with him last time at Hexham, but the ground was just that bit too soft for him (I posted the night before thinking it would dry out a bit) and he can have no excuses here now on good to firm ground, down 2lb for that run. I think this drop in trip for him is an interesting move, and potentially a good one. I’ve long since thought he had enough pace for a galloping 2m, and this 2m2f around here ought not to be a problem. He ran well here over 2m7f earlier this season on this ground, but didn’t quite get home up the long run in. That was a good effort in a novice behind Jurisdiction and a repeat of that effort, over what I believe to be a more suitable trip should put him bang there. The application of blinkers for the first time is another positive, as although he nearly always travels well through his races, he can often idle when he hits the front, thats not to say there is anything ungenuine about him.
BUREAUCRAT is the other eyecatcher in this race, not since Nov 09 has he encountered ground as lively as this, and what happened then,he won! Bar a claiming hurdle win at Fontwell, all his victories have come on ground without soft in the description, and having run on soft/heavy going through the winter, quite respectably in some cases, we should see an improved effort now. Of course the result of getting beaten several times on slow ground is that his handicap mark has plummeted. He ran his best race this season at Musselburgh (on what would be the best ground he has raced on this winter) in the Scottish County Hurdle, and that was off a mark of 117 three starts ago, he races off 107 here and he could definitely win a race like this if on a going day. He did seem to go the wrong way for his former trainer, but he hasn’t shown any real sign of waywardness for Kate Walton, and although he’s not a horse to rely on, everything looks right for him to run well.6:45 – Bow School – 1pt each way at 18/1 (Vc, 16/14’s acceptable, bog) Bureaucrat – 1pt each way at 14/1 (Betfred, Vc, 12’s acceptable)
I just love all this so called crooked low level racing!
At the start of the day I would have happily settled for a winner and a place, and the fact it was Vintage Fabric, my strongest selection , that won is just a bonus. He was given a great ride by his inexperienced jockey and battled on well. Bureaucrat was a non runner at Kelso, but Bow School looked happy out in front, he was just outsped, rather than outstayed, on the run-in by Rolecarr. Gertmegalush didn’t break well and was never able to land a blow after that. Wild Desert ran a moody race at Haydock and seemed to down tools halfway down the back straight, and Worth A King’s didn’t go with any zest either. I’m using 12’s on Vintage Fabric for my calculations as the 14’s had gone by the time I posted but 12’s was available for over half an hour afterwards, he was well supported! I’m using just 14’s (+ 5p rule 4) for Bow School in the interest of fairness, as the 18’s was only available with one bookmaker, as was 16’s when I posted. It adds up to a profit of 17.76Total P/L +258.65
4:45
I got up early on Saturday morning, and it was late by the time I got to this race, I thought I was seeing things when I noticed that ORANGER had been dropped 13lb for his last run, yes 13lb! That is a very rare occurence, and I can’t honestly see why the handicapper has been so drastic. Sure Oranger hasn’t been competitive so far this season, but he’s been running on ground that is softer than ideal, and he’s been given every chance now, racing off a mark of just 81. On his best hunter chase form of last season he would hold outstanding claims in this, and it’s surely far too soon to write him off completely. The ground aside, it might just be that he comes to himself at this time of year, and the main concern here is probably the trip. If this were over 3m2f I would be more confident, I don’t think he’s so slow that he can’t win over this trip, but I would like to see him race in the first couple. Ilongue is the only one of these who has been racing prominently of late, and were he to race with him or just sit in behind that would be ideal. He’s the sort of horse who will quickly lose interest if he starts to get adrift and it will probably be evident by halfway whether or not he’s on a going day.
5:15
Insignia has a 7lb penalty for his Fontwell win on Tuesday, although Ed Glassonbury takes off 6lb. I didn’t immediately think he was a candidate to follow up next time, but this is an equally weak race and he obviously has a good chance. Hereditary was my pick in that race, but he was hampered and never got involved, to be honest I don’t think that made the world of difference, and it’s fairly hard to see him beating Insignia just a few days later. I’m not a fan of Storm Command and anyone backing him in this at 4/1 or thereabouts has probably spent too much time in the sun of late. Because I think the favourite is beatable and it is such a poor event, i’m prepared to take a small chance on SONUS WELD. She didn’t look too keen on starting here last time, but she was fine when she was racing, and put up her best performance to date (not saying much really) as she was still in contention until fading rapidly half a mile out. That was over 3m2f and this drop back in trip to 2m5f looks to be the right move. I think there is every chance the ground made a difference to her last time as well, she had been struggling on heavy ground, and looking at her action I think the faster conditions help her. She has been dropped 7lb since last time, and Nathan Sweeney takes off another 3lb. She is a speculative selection, but at a double figure price in a race like this, the chance is worth taking.
4:45 – Oranger – 1pt each way at 9/1 (he was 12’s when I started typing, wouldn’t take less than 9’s, might drift back out)
5:15 – Sonus Weld – 0.75pt each way at 12/1 (SJ, or 11 Hill’s, Blue Sq, 10’s acceptable)MUSSELBURGH
5:10
I was hoping something would stand out in the main 7f handicap of the day, but at the prices nothing did, this more modest three year old event over the same trip has tempted me more and JAMBO BIBI is the selection. She’s had twelve starts to date, nine of those were for Richard Hannon and she is pretty much exposed now, although she’s not had that many chances on turf. She ran a nice race over this trip when fifth of sixteen at Newmarket on good ground in August last year, and she showed she handled a bit of cut in the ground when running on in third over 6f at Brighton. Despite her three second places being over 5f early last season, she clearly needs further than that now, and I think this trip around this track should be right up her street. She’s modest but usually runs her race, and i’ve got doubts over several of these on account of their attitude. She’s been given a real chance by the handicapper and the blinkers have been reapplied.
5:40
If I said that YA BOY SIR had a patchy overall profile that would be an understatement, but should he be a 16/1 shot in this line-up, I don’t think so. He won here over C&D last season off a mark of 52, and then again two starts later at Ayr off 59 (on soft ground, so the conditions here won’t pose a problem) he’s back down to 55 now and that gives him another chance of success. He’s not the easiest horse to work out, as at times he shows a lot of speed, and other other occasions he can’t seem to lay up at all. I think it’s more down to his mental state than anything else, and i’ve no doubt that 5f is his trip. To that end he didn’t fare too badly last time at Catterick over 6f, where after a slow start he was soon on the heels of the leaders before fading at the furlong pole. There isn’t a real speedball in this that will blast off at a rate of knots, so he should be able to stay in touch early on, and it’ll be interesting to see what effect, if any, the first time blinkers have (he ran terribly in cheekpieces, and ok in a visor!).
5:10 – Jambo Bibi – 0.75pt each way at 16/1 (various,bog, 14’s acceptable)
5:40 – Ya Boy Sir – 1pt each way at 14/1 (various,bog, 12’s acceptable)Thank God (well it is easter) Sonus Weld didn’t run after the performances of the other three, abysmal would sum it up, but when it happens it is at least good it happens on a quieter day. I can easily explain Oranger’s failure, they didn’t ride him handy and he became disinterested, that was always the risk with him. Jambo Bibi ran the worst race of her career by a mile (almost how far she was beaten!) and Ya Boy Sir was given a strange ride, after just missing the break, he was bussled along to get to the front, but didn’t stay there very long! Alas it was due.
I’m putting two up for Monday now, because I have the time to do so, and because i’m happy with the prices on offer, thats not to say they won’t be available at bigger odds tomorrow when more bookmakers price them up, but thats the beauty of Best Odds Guaranteed. I’ll add to them in the morning around 10.30am/11am.
Total P/L +253.15
REDCAR
2:00
Doctor Parkes did me a favour when winning here last week and i’m hoping SONG OF PARKES who is a relative, can also do the business for the same owner, trainer and jockey combination. This one is out of My Melody Parkes (8th in Bosra Sham’s 1000 guineas, 1996, not bad considering she was essentially a sprinter) who is a half sister to Lucky Parkes the dam of Doctor Parkes! Is that all clear…………right well it’s been noticable to be down the years that nearly every horse from this family tends to start the season well but over the course of the year they do often lose their form if they’ve had a few runs. This filly didn’t finish off her three year old campaign too well in a couple of handicaps, and wasn’t seen again after her last run in July. Don’t be fooled by the fact those two efforts over 5f weren’t as good as her three over 6f. Despite the fact she is by Fantastic Light, the dams side has obviously taken over, she has plenty of speed and although she clearly gets 6f, this trip will be fine for her. The horses that beat her at Doncaster in a maiden last year, Victory Ide Say and Burning Thread, both went on and won off marks in the 80’s and 90’s and i’m sure this filly is capable of running to a mark in the mid 70’s, and off 68 here she looks fairly well treated if any problem she’s had is behind her. A few of these like to make the running, so much like Doctor Parkes the other day, i’d expect her to be within a length or two of the leaders, travelling nicely, and then hopefully when Robert Winston asks her the question she’ll be able to change gear. At 14/1 she looks well worth backing.
2:00 – Song Of Parkes – 1.5pt each way at 14/1 (B365, bog, would accept 12’s/10’s if necessary)
WARWICK
2:25
Quite a number of these are consistent and it’s a competitive little race, but i’m struggling to find many, if any, that you could honestly say look well handicapped, although I think there is every chance that COME ON SAFARI is capable of better. He shaped well as a two year old for Peter Winkworth, running with credit in maidens at Windsor and Bath over this trip, before winning over 7f at Folkestone. His only start in a nursery came over a mile on the all-weather at Lingfield, where he was beaten four lengths in fifth, having been given a fair bit to do. He only made one appearance last season in a fairly hot handicap at Sandown over a mile, and he was never involved, possibly because he didn’t quite get the trip, although his absence from the racecourse suggests all may not have been well afterwards. He made his comeback for this yeard four weeks ago, again over a mile at Lingfield, in what was a five runner race, and as usual the early pace wasn’t strong. He was very fresh and pulled too hard, which he paid for at the end of his race, although I thought it was encouraging enough for the future. The form of his Folkestone win has been hit and miss, although Onyx of Arabia and most notably Spanish Duke, have since gone on to do well. I was taken with him that day, and if whatever injury he had has been resolved, I do think he is potentially well treated. Were this over 7f I would be more confident as personally I think that is probably going to be his optimum trip, but I feel he has enough pace to cope with 6f, and from his draw in four, he should get a good toe into the race. Normally i’d be looking for one that likes to make it around here, but I can see them going off too fast and on this occasion it could pay to side with more of a hold up horse, like the selection.
2:25 – Come On Safari – 1pt each way at 16/1 (B365, bog, would accept 14’s)
Hi Robert
Think your tips and write up must be being followed by some of the early odds bookmakers or you have a far bigger following than you realise!!
Over the last 4 or 5 days, within a couple of hours of your thoughts going up then price on all your tips have come in significantly and betfair price is often event shorter than best odds avail!! To the point where you could almost back at the odds you reccomend and then lay back off.
Please please don’t see this as "having a go" at you. Really Really good write ups which I thoroughly enjoy reading. Just wandered if you had also noticed this trend?
yorkiedips
Hi Yorkie, I know your not having a go at me
This post probably gets around 40/50 views a day on average, but such is the power of twitter my blog, which is essentially the same thing, gets around 1,500 now, half of those are the same people looking more than once throughout the day, but if i’ve got say 500 people individually looking, and i don’t know say 100 of those backing them, 100 people all backing the same few horses within a short time period, will I guess make a difference. It’s hard to tell, but when I was posting the night before I did notice several opening shorter than I would have expected, probably due to the fact some people would take shortish prices on betfair the night before and that rings alarm bells with the bookies, strange world! I do try and tally up the p/l with realistically, and use prices that were around for at least half an hour after i posted, providing they were within my parameters. Were I using Betfair SP it would be far higher, unfortunately i’ve not kept records to show what it would be showing to actual SP, although some have drifted a lot, and i’m not sure it would be much different.Just a couple more to add, even though the fields are small, there aren’t too many races that are forgone conclusions, beware the short priced yankees etc, bookmakers love days like today!
Total P/L +253.15
FAKENHAM
3:00
By process of elimination DR FINLEY has to be the call in this at the prices. Recent Chepstow winner Not So Sure Dick isn’t guaranteed to be suited to racing around here (old fashioned staying type), whereas i’m not convinced Chicklemix wants this far yet, although if she’ll stay anywhere it’s here. Chervonet looks one to avoid at present, and apparently has had a breathing problem. The favourite is Pickworth and he is the most likely winner. He could still be improving and a 6lb rise is fair for his Southwell win, but if they don’t go much of a gallop that won’t play to his strengths and he would be very vulnerable to the selection. Dr Finley is yet to win a race, but he’s fairly consistent and is still open to improvement over hurdles. He stays 1m6f on the flat and 2m4f around here could prove to be ideal over hurdles. He has run well enough on firm ground at Brighton and the ground shouldn’t pose a problem. He started out by running well in a couple of juvenile hurdles before contesting the graded Wensleydale hurdle at Wetherby, the race won by 200/1 chance Maoi Chinn Tire. That was a substandard renewal and clearly Grandouet didn’t run to form, but it was still a fair effort from Dr Finley in mid-division. He then started favourite for his handicap debut here over 2m and was staying on all the time, and was beaten less than two lengths into third. He was outclassed in a novice at Newbury won by Third Intention, but has since run well over 2m on the all-weather at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago, to prove his current wellbeing. I’m not suggesting he is particularly well handicapped, but conditions look ideal, he should be capable of better and however the race is race he should be able to adapt, he is quite simply the wrong price.
3:00 – Dr Finley – 2pt win at 15/2 (Blue Sq, 7’s Boylesports, 13/2 various acceptable, would also take 6’s if necessary)
FFOS LAS
3:55
DARAZ ROSE was a little eyecatching last time (I backed her!) and I still think most of her ability is there. She has been dropped a further 5lb and that makes her very interesting in this, with conditions ideal. I thought Mr Timmons rathed nursed her round at Warwick, and could have finished several lengths closer if he’d wanted too. I’m not suggesting any wrong doing as clearly she wasn’t going to be placed, but beaten twenty lengths gives a false impression of how she fared. She stays 3m but I think this trip is probably ideal and good/good to firm ground poses no problem. Definitley Lovely will probably put the pace to the race, and she should be able to settle out the back and gradually creep into it. At ten years old she is in the twilight of her career, but she’s a classier mare than a mark of 95 would imply. She comes here fresher than her main rivals and ought to give a good account.
Gilwen Glory has had a few had races this season and now looks weighted to the hilt, the same could be said of Am I Blue who is famous for landing a big gamble at Hereford, although she shaped well again last time. Definitley Lovely has a very mixed profile, although last time wasn’t her true running, as she was unnerved by a bad mistake early on. The enigma that is Giovanna has carried my money the last twice. She showed more last time, but it was a bunch finish on that occasion, and whilst she undoubtedly has the ability to win here, she’s not one i’d want to be taking a shortish price about.3:55 – Daraz Rose – 2pt win at 8/1 (various, bog, would accept 7’s)
The racing isn’t too good today. Plenty of small fields again, and I hope we get a touch of rain sooner rather than later. Despite that i’ve come up with a couple worth siding with.
Total P/L +244.15
YARMOUTH
Yarmouth was the first track I ever visited, as an eleven year old in 1992. I can remember some of the winners. Jokist a grey sprinter who I think was part owned by John Virgo, and a horse called The Karaoke Kid, my think I persuaded my old man to put £2 on each. It was a horrible day, wind, rain, and if ever I was going to be put off it was then, but no, to late, I was well and truly hooked!
4:10
The Godolphin horse dominants the market here, and of course he could just be a class above these. Personally backing a horse at around Evens who has only managed two starts, and was raised 7lb for finishing second, doesn’t make much appeal. He got stopped in his run at Sandown last season, but he had a chance to go by the winner and couldn’t manage it, and such a rise seems excessive. Winners have come from his Newmarket maiden success, but it wasn’t the strongest by that tracks standards, and i’m happy to oppose him with SWISS CROSS.
Gerard Butlers horse only finished 13th of 19 on his seasonal debut last year, but was beaten less than five lengths, and so it would be wrong to say he can’t go well first time out here. He did the majority of his running at Kempton last season, but he looks equally effective on turf, judging by his second places at Doncaster and Newmarket. Those were achieved over a mile, and 6f, and this 7f trip is probably just about spot on for him.
As a two year old he won on good to firm going and also handled it well enough last season, so i’ve no worries on that score. Neil Callan has ridden him to victory before, three of the trainers last five runners have won, and he looks a solid option against the favourite. Mata Keranjang has his share of temprament and was disappointing on his reappearace. Nobe Citizen usually needs his first start and Excellent Guest was also well beaten on his first start last season at this track.
4:10 – Swiss Cross – 1pt each way at 12/1 (Coral, 11’s Skybet, Totesport, SJ, 10’s elsewhere acceptable)
SEDGEFIELD
6:10
A nice prize for the grade, and it would be fitting if Arrow Barrow won for the sponsor John Wade. However i’d prefer it if he finished second to COOL BARANCA. This mare was, and still is capable enough on the flat, and in comparision to the likes of Bocciani and Odin’s Raven, she looks very well treated over hurdles. Of course she has yet to acheive as much over obstacles as they have, but the signs are there that she is able to do so. She had a quiet run round Musselburgh and returned to that venue and improved upon her initial effort with a fifth placed finish, beaten sixteen lengths behind Silverlord. She then ran here, and was never in the race at any stage on heavy ground, in a novice that she realistically had no chance in. That race was a qualifier for this event, and I would completely ignore that effort.
At Kelso last month she was running a nice race until she blundered three out and the tack went. Henry Brooke did very well to stay in the saddle, and the pair well still bang there when he managed to pull her up before the last. Had that not have happened, i’m sure she would have been in the first three.
On the flat she likes to ridden quietly from the back, and therefore who better to try and employ those tactics over hurdles than Graham Lee. She had what i’m sure was a sharpener for this on the flat at Redcar the other day, and it’ll be disappointing if she can’t be competitive off 90.6:10 – Cool Baranca – 1.5pt each way at 7/1 (Corals, B365)
The racing is better today, but having had a quick look at tomorrow’s cards, I hope I don’t curse it, by saying I think that could be the best day of the week, as racing from Hereford and Southwell over jumps oftens holds treasure.
Total P/L +239.15
PONTEFRACT
5:15
MISTER BEN VEREEN doesn’t look chucked in on his handicap debut, but he certanly looked the type to improve as a three year old, and he showed enough last season to suggest he could win a race or two off a mark in the 60’s. He looked a nice type in the paddock at Kempton on his debut, but he still had some filling out to do. He shaped with a bit of promise there in a muddling affair, but it was his Newbury run that created the best impression. Having pulled very hard in the first half of the race, he was then stopped in his run, but despite that he then did run on again at the death and to me it was a most eyecatching run. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of the form as horses around him have either flopped or won off higher marks than he races off here.
The ground was a bit loose at Goodwood on his final start and he never looked at ease racing downhill. I wouldn’t be surprised if 7f was his trip this year, but this stiffish 6f is a good place to start. The godolphin horse Mariners Lodge will probably attempt to make all now dropping in trip, so a good gallop should be on the cards which will hopefully help the selection to settle. Mariners Lodge has shown speed before fading over further, and could be dangerous from the front, but i’m not convinced he is the most straightforward, and whether he’ll battle on up the straight is open to question.
5:15 – Mister Ben Vereen – 1pt each way at 12/1 (various, bog)
PERTH
5:35
Oscar’s Ballad is obviously the one that most eyes will be on, but it’s not so easy for the likes of Tony Martin and Gordon Elliott to come here and plunder these races now, and although this one was eyecatching last time, he does have to prove his effectiveness on this ground, and doesn’t exactly look thrown in here. He may win, but i’d much rather take a big price on TOP BRASS.
He’s had very little racing for a ten year old, in fact he had three years off from 2006 and was only seen once in 2009. He came back and ran two very respectable races last year, one of them in this very race. Granted he is racing off a higher mark, but he only just failed off a 1lb lower mark at Ayr in March and I think a return to this sounder surface can see him improve still further on that effort. Several of the jockey’s in this race don’t have much experience, whereas Mr Cully has ridden winners under rules and many in point to points, in fact he rode a big winner at Fairyhouse just a few days ago. He’ll hopefully be able to creep into the race on the second circuit and having his fourth start in three months, he should be as fit as he’s ever been now.
5:35 – Top Brass – 1pt each way at 25/1 (Skybet, or 22’s/20’s various)
NEWCASTLE
6:40
Despite the numbers i’m not sure this is all that competitive and WEETFROMTHECHAFF is an interesting contender now racing at this trip. He used to be with Reg Hollinshead and did most of his racing on the all-weather over 6f/7f. Since joining Maurice Barnes he has mixed both codes and finally got off the mark at Hexham over hurdles last summer.
As I said he was racing over sprint distances, but for this stable he has mainly been campaigned over further, and only at Haydock last season did he run over this 1m2f distance. That was in a lady amateur rider’s race, and with due respect he was given far too much to do on that occasion. He ran a couple of weeks ago over 1m4f at Catterick and performed most creditably in a better class race, only fading inside the last couple of furlongs.
I’m convinced that this is his trip on the flat, and the handicapper has been rather generous in my view, dropping him a couple of pounds for his reappearance. The excellent Philip Makin takes the ride, and this is the type of horse he often excels on. I’d imagine he’ll sit just off the lead on him, and if he’s in position he should be letting him stride on once they hit the straight.
6:40 – Weetfromthechaff – 1.5pt each way at 16/1 (various, bog, would accept 14’s)
Total P/L +232.15
BATH
2:10
This isn’t actually a race that took too much going into and COOLELLA rather stood out to me straight away. A lot seems to be, being made about her losing her way at the end of last season, well she didn’t! She found 6f too sharp at Carlisle, and clearly just doesn’t act on the all-weather so you can discount her last two starts (failed miserably on the sand at two as well). In between those efforts she was a fair third at Musselburgh off this mark, and her form earlier in the season gives her a fair chance in this.
It’s hardly a surprise that the going here is firm, she ran well on good to firm twice last season, and I wouldn’t be worrying on that score. John Weymes sent Welcome Appoach here to win at the last meeting (also runs on this card) and although some people might say this filly is just filling the horsebox, I don’t think thats the case. This easy mile should be ideal, she was competitive off higher marks last season, went well first time out last season, and in Luke Morris she has a more than capable jockey aboard.
I’ll probably regret saying it, but I think you can safely discount the bottom four here, so immediately you’ve got an eight runner field. The top two obvously hold solid chances, with Gee Major having recorded two victories over C&D last season, he does however need to prove he can go well fresh. Grey Boy is a lovely old horse, but he hasn’t quite produced his best in his starts here before, but he is still well treated and can’t be discounted. Goose Green has been running well enough over hurdles, but might just find things happening a little quickly over this trip.2:10 – Coolella – 1.5pt each way at 15/2 (Boylesports, PP, 7’s various)
HEREFORD
2;30
TOP ACHIEVER’S two runs back this season following a lay-off have offered more than a little encouragement, and having been dropped 3lb for his run here three weeks ago, he must have serious claims in a weaker race. Considering his run here came just five days after his comeback at Uttoxeter, I thought he ran most respectably in the circumstances, finishing fifth in a competitive little race won by Ministerofinterior. That was a race in which virtually none of the line-up could have been ruled out, unlike today’s affair, where it’s a real struggle to give a chance to half of these.
Top Achiever has raced sparingly in recent seasons, and hasn’t won since March 08, but that was here from a stone higher mark. The ground last time was still a little on tacky side (over-watered) and although I wouldn’t take the good to firm description too literally as it was still cutting up down the far side at the last meeting, i’m sure it’ll be firmer than it was last time for him, and that should help his cause. Ben Poste takes off a usual 7lb and it’s hard to see him not being involved in the shake-up.
Carlton Scroop is a fairly warm order (Saute later on the card is also short for the Best stable, perhaps this has been a long term plan for both) but anyone who knows this horse from the flat will know he is far from straightforward, and even if he has been laid out for this, i’d rather be a layer than a backer at the price.
2:30 – Top Achiever – 1.5pts each way at 7/1 (various)
PERTH
4:50
This is quite a warm little race, and the improving Shammick Boy, the experienced Hearthstead Dream, and the potentially well handicapped Martin Scruff are all feared to varying degrees, but SOUTH O’THE BORDER should appreciate this sounder surface, a return to 2m4f and indeed a return to Perth. A few years ago I thought he was going to make up into a really decent handicaper, but it didn’t quite happen for him. He has been tried over fences, but doesn’t really have the scope for those. Whilst he does handle soft/heavy ground, i’m in no doubt that he prefers it a little less taxing, and after a few runs over the winter he has come back down to a more favourable mark.
He ran a strange race last time at Bangor over 3m, where he dropped himself out a bit after halfway, only to run on again at the death. It was at least more encouraging than previous efforts this season, and I would expect him to be ridden a little more prominently here. Nigel Twiston-Davies won with his only runner here yesterday.
4:50 – South O’The Border – 2pt win at 7/1 (Betfred, Skybet, 13/2/6’s acceptable)
SOUTHWELL
6:15
A small field Hunter Chase in which Offshore Account is a warm order. That’s not surprising considering his excellent third in the Aintree Foxhunters last time. He’s obviously not the force of old, but he’s been holding his form well this season and is clearly the one to beat. I do however have enough doubts about him to think he might be worth taking on. Firstly although he won a good novice in Ireland on good ground, I do think he prefers some cut (previous wins were on soft/heavy). I also think he is suited by a strong gallop, as he travels well, and a tactical affair around here may not suit quite as well.
Breaking Silence doesn’t look the easiest of rides these days, and has to give weight away, and I think SPROSSER is worth chancing. He didn’t show much on his return to action at Huntingdon over hurdles in February, but that was a very strange race, where they all came home at long intervals, and after more than a year off he was entitled to need that. The fact that he only went off at 11/1 that day would suggest connections think some ability remains. He’s only had sixteen starts in his career and is clearly very fragile, but all his victories have come at left handed tracks, one here, and one at Fakenham, both on a sound surface, so conditions should suit him well. His jumping was always good over fences, and that should stand him in good stead with the useful Tom Garner in the plate being another positive.
7:45
A chance of sorts can be given to all of these, but I can’t get my head around why SMARTIES PARTY is the outsider of the field, and by quite some margin. I’ve been waiting a while for this mare to try 3m over hurdles, as I certainly think it will suit her, it’s just a shame she doesn’t come here in slightly better form. She ran terribly on her return at Wolverhampton on the flat in February, but last time at Kelso over 2m2f was more encouraging, although beaten a long way in 8th, it hinted that better was to follow.
She stays 2m on the flat well, and has usually been seen running on over 2m4f, and I can’t believe she won’t stay a sharp 3m around here. She was in the process of running very well off a 3lb higher mark at Aintree last June before coming down in the straight, and although the handicapper could have been a little kinder than just dropping her 2lb for last time, Jake Greenall takes off a further 7lb.
Her only career victory to date was in Mar 09 at Sedgefield in a novice event, but she’s had plenty of placed efforts since the, mostly on the flat, and is comparitively lightly raced over hurdles. They aren’t certaint to go much of a gallop here, and if it turns tactical she would have more pace than most.
Reefer Beefer did me a favour here last month, but he’s been whacked up 15lb, and I think thats put him right on the limit of his capabilities now. Fiddlededee will find this easier than some of the tasks she’s been set, but I question just how much enthusiasm she has for this racing lark. French Ties could pull too hard if they don’t go a gallop.
6:15 – Sprosser – 2pt win at 9/2 (various, bog)
7:45 – Smarties Party – 1pt each way at 25/1 (various, bog, 20’s acceptable)Total P/L + 220.15
DONCASTER
4:10
This is the sort of race I like, as it’s quite easy to see how the race will pan out, at least for the first half of the race! Red Kestrel only has one way or running, and thats from the front. He landed a seller on this penultimate start and improved on that with finishing second at Beverley last time.
My selection PATAVIUM actually made most of the running when he won over C&D last season, but he’s a most adaptable type, and he’ll be equally at home, tucked in just behind the pacesetter. He should be one of the fittest in the line-up, as he’s been hurdling in recent months, and finished a fair third at Thirsk on his return to the level the other day. This track should play more to his strengths, and he looks the most solid option off what is still a fair mark in this.
It was by process of elimination that I landed on Patavium, as apart from Red Kestrel who could be hard to peg back if allowed to get too far clear, I have doubts about virtually everything else in the field. Incendo is very in and out and looks harshly treaated, whilst Bedouin Bay needs to improve on his run here last time, and has to prove his effectiveness on this faster surface. Fourth Generation won a weak maiden and looks on too high a mark, unless he has improved from three to four. Bullet Man will have his stamina severely tested at this trip, and Archie Rice often flatters to deceive and is plenty short enough for one that struggles to win.
4:10 – Patavium – 2pt win at 6/1 (various, bog)
FONTWELL
6:05
Lord Liath is understandably a warm order for this, and is by far the most likely winner. But i’m not convinced he is one to take such a short price about, with the ground livelier than anything he has encountered so far. He has been hitting a flat spot in his races before running on again, he just doesn’t strike me as a horse that will do anything that easily. His form over hurdles is obviously far superior to his rivals, but although he’s been getting beaten by some decent horses, he’s not actually beaten too many rivals of note, and I just have a niggling doubt over him.
LOMBOK hasn’t really been sighted in his three previous hurdling attempts, and there is a worry that connections are thinking about handicaps and won’t want to finish to close to Lord Liath. I’ll go with the assumption that he’s completely trying his best here, and he should certainly find this test more suitable than the ones he’s been set so far. Two miles was always going to be on the sharp side for this stayer on the flat, and the step up to 2m4f on a faster surface should bring about significant improvement. His flat form is slightly better than that of Gtaab, and that one was flattered in finishing so close at Wincanton last time. It’s such a poor race, that even if he can’t master the favourite, I would very much hope that he’ll be able to produce his best run so far over hurdles to finish in the frame.
6:05 – Lombok – 1.5pt each way at 12/1 (Boylesports, Hills, 10’s acceptable)
KILBEGGAN
6:20
Yes that’s right Kilbeggan! I have to say it’s rare for me to have a bet on a race in Ireland. I do watch all the races, but I don’t pay it enough attention to be able to make too many selections. Funnily enough it is usual the better class events that I do get involved in, if at all. However very occasionally I do note one down to look out and there is one such mare in this.
The problem is that it then takes me a long time to go through the form, as it’s not as familiar to me. However it’s fairly obvious that this is a very weak effort, highlighted by the fact that Dr Anubis had an 85 rated horse in front of him last time in a maiden at Clonmel, and yet is a warm favourite here. Macarthur is a shadow of the horse he once was, and is in terminal decline, yet he is the second favourite.
My selection is BOMBALONG who won a bumper in gritty fashion at Wexford last year, and a return to a faster surface could see an improvement on her efforts to date. Granted this is her third hurdling start, and she’ll undoubtedly be better served in handicaps, but this is such a weak event that were she to win it, she couldn’t be rated too highly. She raced up with the pace when she won, and that is probably the place to be again in a big field of poor horses. This step up in trip should suit on breeding, and i’ve checked through the last few years, and the stable have had horses run well back from a break. At 25/1 in such a poor event, she is worth a speculative wager.
6:20 – Bombalong – 1pt each way at 25/1 (B365, 20 or 16’s acceptable, bog)
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Have Mr. Gibbs stopped posting picks? Or have you moved to another part of the forum?
Keep up the good work!
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