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Anytime I write my thoughts down it does seem to focus the mind a little, and therefore i’ve decided that most days, I’ll preview one race a day, which after scrutiny is the one I fancy I might be able to read correctly. Ok first one is for tomorrow, and is the 2:30 at Towcester.
2:30pm Towcester – Sunday 23rd January
1 – Fleur De Vassey – This mare went into my notebook after the second of her bumper runs, in which she finished 12th but not beaten far in a listed event at Sandown, having not been given a hard time. She was very disappointing in her initial efforts over hurdles, so much so that by the time she got her head in front in a modest handicap at Fontwell she had long since been removed for the notebook! That victory was over 2m6f, but the race more or less fell into her lap that day, and I’m far from convinced that 3m around Towcester is what she wants. She has shaped with a degree of promise in her 2 chase starts to date, but hasn’t been finishing off her races over 2m4f and with top weight of 11-12 here, I’m happy to take her on.
2 – Romney Marsh – Roger Curtis’s mare has already been rather busy this season, and has been a model of consistency. I was present at Towcester in November when she finished behind the well handicapped Aztec Treasure, and that was probably her best effort so far this season. She is however 7lb higher now, having gone up further for her recent Plumpton second. I also have slight stamina doubts against her, and whilst this is a weak race, and I can see her being bang there turning for home, I think there is every chance she will outstayed up the stiff Towcester run-in.
3 – Mister Virginian – A 12 year old maiden under rules after 28 attempts (winner of 2 points) who was beaten off this mark (he has dropped 21lb since his first start in this country in October) by 42 lengths at Plumpton a few days ago. To be fair to the horse, he has finished 2nd six times in Ireland and was asked to keep fair company on occasion. However since joining Chris Gordon has hasn’t shown enough to suggest he is up to winning even a weak contest like this one.
4 – Atherstone Hill – This 9 year old has only had 8 starts in his career and has obviously not been the easiest to train. He had only shown a modicum of ability in bumpers and over hurdles and made his chasing debut in March 09 off a mark of 95, and was well beaten on that occasion. After an absence of eighteen months, he reappeared over 3m2f at Warwick, and with the handicapper having dropped him 17lbs in the interim, he produced a very good effort in the circumstanecs in finishing a clear second. Connections have given him a couple of months to recover from that, so hopefully the dreaded "bounce" factor won’t come into play. The good form of the yard is a plus, and off the same mark, a reproduction of that Warwick effort may well be good enough to take this.
5 – The Real Rupee – Having never finished closer the 39 lengths to the winner in any of his 9 starts to date, this Irish raider is rather hard to fancy. Admittedly all of todays rivals would have struggled in those large field maiden/novice events. However his last effort was in a handicap in which he weakened rapidly on his first attempt over this trip at Thurles. His breeding, together with that effort would suggest a step up in trip probably isn’t going to help. This is undoubtedly his easiest task to date, but he’s still hard to fancy, although very strong market support would be interesting.
6 – Thunder Child – This horses real claim to fame is his dam, that great mare Double Dutch who won the Cesarewitch. I was actually present at Cothelstone when this horse won a point to point, and although this a very weak race, that was weaker still. That was also two seasons ago, and when he returned under rules at the end of last season, he didn’t show too much in a couple of races at Newton Abbot. He has changed stables, and it’s interesting to note previous connections appear to have deliberately kept him away from soft ground. It’ll be a surprise if he takes this on his first start for 262 days.
7 – Sailor’s Sovereign – This mare is another maiden, although she has twice come close to shedding that tag this season. Both of those efforts were at Plumpton, but it should be noted that she has run very well at this venue over slightly further in soft ground. Having started the season off a mark of 64, she was raised to 72, but has since been put back down to 67 following a disappointing effort when last seen at Folkestone. If you forgive her that run, then I think it’s fair to say she is the most likely to run her race, given that she’s proven in the conditions and is still feasibly weighted.
8 – Bajan Sunshine – This gelding looked to have a bright future ahead of him after winning his first three starts for Jonjo O’Neill. However since then, it has very much been a downward spiral, and in actual fact his last effort just six days ago at Plumpton (Mister Virginian was well behind him) was his best for a long time. I was a little surprised by that run, in as much as I didn’t think he wanted the step up to 3m2f. I’m still not sure what to make of that run, as I can’t help but think forcing tactics and trying to make his mind up for him, over 2m/2m4f might see him back to winning ways. On his run the other day, you’d have to give him every chance in this. However he may well need more time to get over that race, and I am far from convinced Towcester, with it’s uphill finish is going to play to his strengths.
My Betting Forecast – 5/2 Fleur De Vassey, 10/3 Atherstone Hill, 4/1 Romney Marsh, 5/1 Sailor’s Sovereign, 13/2 Bajan Sunshine, 10/1 The Real Rupee, 20/1 Mister Virginian, 33/1 Thunder Child
Sporting Life Betting Forecast: 7/4 Fleur de Vassy, 7/2 Romney Marsh, 9/2 Atherstone Hill, 6/1 Bajan Sunshine, 12/1 The Real Rupee, 12/1 Sailor’s Sovereign, 16/1 Thunder Child, 20/1 Mister Virginian
Summary – A very modest affair, but interesting in the sense that I think a few of these will very much struggle to get home. The two that stand out for me are Sailor’s Sovereign and ATHERSTONE HILL. The latter gets the vote as it’s reasonable to assume there may still be a little more to come from him on just his ninth racecouse outing.
2pts win Atherstone Hill at 3/1 or better (scale 1-5)
Interesting preview
Had look at form and tend to agree with your thoughts
FYI Atherstone is 6/1 with B365 at mo. Had a small dabble e/w with flat 8 runners myself
yorkiedips
A good write up.I have gone for Sailor’s Sovereign ew,7/1seems fair with the tote.I hope all 8 run.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Good preview. The only thing I’d disagree with is the stamina doubt for Fleur de Vassy. Her dam stayed 3m well and I would expect her to improve for the trip so she would be my selection.
Hi Tuffers
I do look at the breeding when horses haven’t had many runs and are stepping up or down in trip. However I’ve seen enough of her now on the track to pretty much disregard the fact that her dam was a stout stayer. For me she is usually a strong travelling sort who doesn’t see her races out very well. I don’t think she had been outsped on her last 2 outings, more outstayed. Therefore I’ll be surprised to see her get home under that weight up the Towcester hill in first place today. I may however be completely wrong!
**Should add that Timeform and RP also think she will be suited by the step up in trip, seems I’m in a minority**Well done on getting the 6’s and 7’s about Atherstone and Sailor’s respectively, the way the market seems to be going, I’ve think you’ve got the value!
Thanks Tuffers, I don’t know, it was just one of those races that stood out to me, alas they aren’t all like that!
Well Done Mr Gibbs,
Keep that strike rate up and you will do well in life!
Look forward to your next preview
JoP66
Jug Of Punch – Thanks for that, I’ve only just start using the forum again, so I’ll keep an eye on your thread, well done on your winner at Kempton!
I’ll keep a running total, he went off 5/2, but was available for a short time at 6, I took 5’s, but I think for fairness I’ll use 9/2 as that was more than widely available all morning.
P/L +9pts
Just the one jump meeting on Monday, and as I don’t follow the all weather as closely, thats where I’m heading, it’s another modest race, but personally from a punting perspective, I like those best.
3:40 Wetherby – Monday 24th January
1 – Seize – Has moved from Ferdy Murphy to Jimmy Moffatt since his last start. He is currently 3lb higher than for his last win, and has never won with the word "soft" in the going description, although he has run well enough in defeat on soft ground in the past. Never been the type to go well fresh, but having said that not many from the Murphy stable win first time out, so that perhaps shouldn’t be help against him too much. On the balance of things, he has enough to prove at present, but he’ll win again later in the season I’m sure.
2 – Work Boy – He finished just behind La Pantera Rosa last time at Newcastle and is now 4lb better off without taking Shane Byrnes claim into account. The thing that puts me off with this horse is I just don’t think he is quite seeing out his races over 3 miles. That might seem a strange thing to say, given he was staying on last time at Newcastle. However more often than not he does appear to struggle, and I can’t help but think that forcing tactics over 2m4f would see him successful again. That said he’s pretty consistent, and although the Sue Smith yard aren’t really firing at present (Lackamon aside) he’ll probably finish within a few lengths of the winner.
3 – La Pantera Rosa – This one has won 3 of his last 5 starts, and as mentioned above, he just got the better of Work Boy last time at Newcastle, and strictly speaking he should finish behind that rival today. Personally when your only talking about a few pounds over 3 miles, I think it’s hard to draw conclusions such as that, and whose to say he wouldn’t have kept pulling out more that day if needed. Anyway he has only gone up 4lb and should still be very competitive off that mark. That victory was 12 days ago, and that could be a problem, as all his victories have come after a break of at least 50 days, and he hasn’t covered himself in glory when running twice inside a month.
4 – Blazing Diva – This mare started life with Charlie Mann, and after a couple of starts for current connections she burst into life with a 50/1 success at Newcastle. She proved that was no fluke by winning again over the same course and distance a few weeks later. She may well have needed her first start this season and although she was well beaten on her last outing at Newcastle, she ran a little better than the bare result suggests and wasn’t given too hard a time of it. She’s been off the track for 73 days, but it should be noted that she was off for virtually the same amount of time before winning last year. She now races off a mark just 3lb higher than she last won from, and she could be dangerous if returning in good form, with conditions no problem.
5 – Canal Bank – Without casting aspertions, I have to say I never like to get too heavily involved in these races when Jonjo has a horse like this entered. He is rather difficult to weigh up, but is obviously a threat to all. The step up to 3 miles this season has obviously been crucial, as he doesn’t do things in a hurry. Unless Work Boy makes it, there could be a lack of pace on here, which wouldn’t play to his strengths. A 6lb rise for just getting the better of that perennial loser Topless looks a little harsh, and on balance I think he’s opposable.
6 – Shrewd Investor – He hasn’t won for nearly 2 years and appears to be in a rather steep decline at first glance. I wouldn’t be writing him off just yet however, as he only had 29 races in his career, and is a 5 time winner, which isn’t the worst strike rate for one of his ability. I thought he had ran a pleasing enough race when unseating at Bangor over 3m6f two starts ago, and that showed me that he’s probably still got another win in him. His most recent effort at Newcastle needs to be overlooked as that was pretty woeful. However the handicapper has dropped him 7lb for that one run, the trip and ground are ideal, as is the small field, and he might just pop up at a price.
Summary – None of the six can be ruled out with conviction. As I write, four firms have priced this race up. I’m going to side with both BLAZING DIVA and SHREWD INVESTOR. At around 9/2 combined, I think that offers very good value, whereas the 2/1 Canal Bank looks very skinny to me.
1pt win Blazing Diva (12/1 with 3 firms at present)
1pt win Shrewd Investor (10/1 with Bet 365 at time of writing)Shrewd Investor couldn’t quite peg back Work Boy up the Wetherby straight yesterday, the winner kept on well.
An interesting card at Sedgefield, and I’m backing Cary’s Lad and Easter Vic for various reasons at big prices, however the race I want to concentrate on is the 3:30, although that may be a little unwise as 3 of the 6 make their chasing debuts in this handicap.
3:30 Sedgefield – Tuesday 25th January
1 – Kosta Brava – The likely favourite, and deservedly so. He is progressing quietly with wins at Kelso and Musselburgh over fences this season already. The Kelso victory represented fair form, although it was rather a bunch finish that day. His wasn’t overly impressive last time, given the straightforward task he faced. You get the impression he only just does enough, and he still looks feasiby weighted. As I said, a worthy favourite, but at around the 9/4 mark, I think he is priced about right.
2 – Cranky Corner – A good bumper performer for Willie Mullins a couple of seasons ago, finishing 7th in the festival bumper. However it’s been a downward spiral since then, and to me he runs like a horse with a problem. He still appears to travel well enough through the first part of the race, but when any pressure is applied, he’s finding nothing. If there is nothing physically wrong, then a switch to fences might work the oracle, and he’s sure to be well schooled. But I have big doubts over him, and cannot contemplate backing him until I see him finish off a race.
3 – J’Adhere – Another making his chasing debut, and he comes here in reasonable form after a second in heavy ground at Folkestone. That was off a mark of 102, and he races off 105 here, so he doesn’t jump out as being brilliantly handicapped. He doesn’t look like an obvious chaser to me, and although they had a winner the other day, the yard form is also a slight concern.
4 – Cocoa Key – The third to be making his debut over fences, and for me the most interesting. He looks every inch a chaser, and I’m hoping Richard Guest may have schooled him himself, given the fine horsemen he is. He won on his first outing this season, and first for this yard at Carlisle, and was perhaps a little disappointing last time, although I think the drop back to 2 miles will help, as he is a strong travelling type. He looks a little quirky and can race with his head a little high, but I think he’s got a little more ability than his current mark of 102 would indicate, and if he takes to it, he is a big threat to all here.
5 – I’m Your Man – This 12 year old has been a grand servant to his small yard down the years, and although beaten a fair way, he ran one of his better races of late last time. He is still 2lb higher than his last winning mark and deserves a bit of respite from the handicapper. With a few up and coming types in opposition he may just get outsprinted at the business end here, and whilst I’m sure he’s got another win in him, it may be over further than 2 miles.
6 – Gavroche Gaugain – FFF, those are his last 3 form figures. However that doesn’t quite tell the whole story, as he has fallen at the last on 2 of those occasions, and both times he held every chance of winning. As a consequence though he is now 9lb higher than when that sequence started. That said, he was probably on a false mark to start with, and is probably capable of winning off his current mark of 89 granted a clear round!! This is a better race than the ones he’s been competing in however, and I’m sure a solid placing and a clear round will satisfy connections.
Summary:
An interesting little race, and with 3 making their chasing debuts, not one to get overly involved with from a punting perspective. That said, if this were a hurdle race I’d be very keen to take the current 8/1 on offer about COCOA KEY, and given that he looks to have the size for this game, i’m willing to take a chance on him. Kosta Brava is prove to be better off with a lower weight in a better race, but is sure to be thereabouts, as is Gavroche Gaugain, whether he has is jockey with him is another matter.
1pt win COCOA KEY at 8/1 (several firms)
That looks like a race to avoid to me, Robert. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of three chasers making their chase debuts in a handicap rather than novice chase.
Hi Tuffers
I quite agree it’s not one to get massively involved in. But my feeling is if this were a hurdle race, I’d have Cocoa Key at 7/2 or 4/1, so I’m prepared to take a small chance on him at double the odds. Having said that he’s only about 6/1 now, which is getting towards being a more realistic price.
Good luck if having a bet today.
Sue Smith, you are one of my favourite trainers, how can you do this to me (The Last Fling was a particular favourite). In all seriousness Cranky Corner saw it out well enough, although I don’t think he wants further than the minimum trip. Cocoa Key raced a little keen, but put in a good round of jumping in the main, and simply wasn’t good enough on the day. There were 3 making their debuts over fences in that race today in a handicap, quite unusual, however in the 2:05 at Musselburgh tomorrow, I have noticed their are 4!
Unlike "Shellsuitrich" the forums newest member I can’t claim (well I can but I won’t because that would be lying) to have inside info, but I’m really on knowledge and form study for the 3:05 at Musselburgh tomorrow.
1 – Ballymacduff – The Charlton yard are just struggling for winners at the moment (stable star Knockara Beau possibly reverting to hurdles in the Cleeve at the weekend) and this one will do well to win I think. He’s developing into a reasonably consistent performer, however the 8lb hike for his success 3 runs ago looks like it’s just been enough to stop him, and he looks booked for an honourable place again, without quite being able to take this. He probably needs to come back down to at least 105.
2 – Latin Connection – He gained his first career placing last time at Catterick over 2m3f, but has rather harshly been raised 6lb for that, I think thats enough to stop him winning, without even mentioning the step up in strip. This time last year he was running over 5/6f at Wolverhampton, and whilst well beaten, he showed enough speed to suggest 3 miles will surely stretch him to and beyond his limit, and after travelling strongly at Catterick, he found little after the last. There is certainly a race or two in him, but this won’t be one of them.
3 – More Equity – She must be an enjoyable little horse to own, mixes chasing with hurdling, and nearly always runs a solid race. She finished just behind Ballymacduff last time, on the same terms, and I don’t imagine there will be much to choose between them again, but like that one, she probably needs to come down a few more pounds before regaining the winning thread, one for the placepot perhaps.
4 – Western Bound – I’m always weary of getting to involved in a race when you have a horse such as this muddying the waters, so to speak. I’ve watched a few of his races in Ireland, and without doubt he had some ability. He appeared to handle good ground over there, so the surface shouldn’t be an issue. Obviously his wellbeing after 900 days is an unknown, as is his ability to stay 3 miles. Personally I can’t contemplate backing him, as there are so many question marks. That said, coming from the Elliott stable, you don’t need me to tell you that a market move would be significant.
5 – Twentypoundluck – This one is a little interesting on his first start for Andy Crook. His Irish point form is solid rather than spectacular, but it did show his ability to get 3 miles (I know some are run in slow motion, but according to a write up, one of his wasn’t, and he was staying on well a couple of times). Of his 3 runs in this country, the stand out effort was at Hexham, behind two fair sorts in Monogram and Blenheim Brook, who have both since been placed off marks of 112 and 115. He finished in front of Oil Burner that day, rated 105, and I don’t think the handicapper had much choice but to allot him a mark of 100. He was out of his depth in a maiden hurdle in Ireland the other week, but wasn’t disgraced. This appears to be the first time he’s got a realistic chance under what are seemingly ideal conditions, and at the likely prices, he is of interest.
6 – Grand Union – A winner when last seen in April, beating Ballymacduff, with whom he is actually 6lb better off with, although that one has seemingly improved in the interim. Conditions shouldn’t pose any problems, and he is still open to improvement. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him contesting the finish, although it has to be said he has improved in the previous 2 seasons for his initial outing, and now in the Wade yard, that pattern will probably be repeated.
7 – Soprano – Both his victories for Jonjo O’Neill were over 2 miles, and I think connections are plucking at straws with him over this trip. He jumped poorly over fences on his latest start, but it’s been 2 years since he’s shown any form of note, and you couldn’t back him until you see signs of a revival.
8 – Everaard – Another that needs to prove his stamina for 3 miles, his only winning form to date was over 1 mile on the flat. He did finish second a couple of times last summer over hurdles, so the ground is unlikely to be an issue with him. Those placings were off a 5lb lower mark over shorter trips, and until he is back over 2/2m1/2 miles and a mark in the mid 80’s he’ll do well to win.
9 – Sonara – Gained his first win over hurdles at Catterick last time, and was second in this race last year (when it was worth £1,000 more in added prize money). Without wishing to crab the form too much of his victory, the first 7 home that day were covered by less than 8 lengths. He appears to be one of the more solid options in the line-up and his current mark may not be beyond him. I won’t be surprised to see him go in again, but unlikely to offer any real value
10 – Vallani – Remains a maiden after 20 attempts, but has shown a bit more in his last 2 starts since moving to Lucinda Russell. Now down to a mark of 80, and having run well at this venue before, it’s not inconceivable that today could be his day. I’d like to see him ridden more prominently as without doubt staying is his forte, and there is no guaranteed pace in this race. His profile isn’t convincing, but off 10 stone, and ridden more positively, a case can be made at the likely price, granted he is 2lb out of the handicap.
Summary – It’s a trappy heat, and the inclusion of Western Bound does little to help that. The two most solid selections are Ballymacduff and Sonara, but neither are winning machines, and whilst likely to run their races and be there abouts, they are certainly beatable. I’ll take them on with both VALLANI and to a lesser extent TWENTYPOUNDLUCK, at the right prices of course. The former has shown more of late, and is now on a mark to strike, whilst the later has yet to have conditions to suit under rules, and is worth a speculative interest.
2pts win Vallani at 12/1 or better (no prices available at time of writing, 14/1 for small money on exchanges)
1pt win Twentypoundluck at 20/1 or better
Sustained support for Everaard sees him scupper my main selection Vallani, and my place lay of Everaard doesn’t look too clever now! A strange race with Soprano finishing third
Currently +4, I think as soon as they realise Vallani should be made more use of he’ll win a moderate handicap, possibly round a slightly more testing track than Musselburgh.
A little pushed for time having spent far too long looking at tomorrows racing, so I’ve not slacked in that respect, but I’ll keep the write up a little short per horse.
I was going to make life a little easier for myself by previewing the 2:15 at Warwick in which Folie A Deux is a clear standout for me. However as he’s likely to be favourite, I thought I’d try and be a little more original, and instead below is a preview for the 3:55 at Warwick instead.
3:55 Warwick – Thursday 27th January
1 – Oscar Prairie – A generally consistent sort, who was found possibly the worst non handicap novice hurdle so far this winter to win at Folkestone, and then got beaten by Rosoff when long odds-on at Lingfield in a handicap last time. Both of those races were in very heavy ground, and he may appreciate a return to a better surface. He looks sure to be thereabouts if he takes to fences at the first time of asking (ran okay in sole point outing)
2 – Global Flyer – A horse I’ve backed a few times at big prices of late, and although a 33/1 shot, I was disappointed with his chasing debut last time. He doesn’t look the easiest to handle, needs to jump with a little more fluency and may ultimately need a stiffer test, passed over this time.
3 – Prophete De Guye – A model of consistency in the last 12 months, but his mark has suffered as a result. He is currently 8lb higher than the one he last won off, coupled with the fact that he needs further to be seen at his best, and the natural conclusion is an honourable effort in defeat, may snatch a place.
4 – Double The Trouble – I thought he looked quite promising as a novice, and I did think he might make a 125/130 horse. He has been disappointing, and whilst his mark is slipping, he hasn’t shown enough this season to suggest a win is imminent. His jumping should hold him in good stead around here though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish in the frame, although the ground might be a bit on the soft side for him.
5 – Gentleman Anshan – A winning pointer and a good looker! I think he was ultimately flattered when appearing to show improved form in a novice event at Ludlow last time. A mark of 105 looks to be asking a bit too much of him, and I think he’ll struggle to be competitive.
6 – Brimham Boy – Quietly progressive last season and he has a nice way of going about the job. He may well get an easy lead up front here, and providing he is ready to roll after a couple of months off the track, I still think there is a bit of mileage left from a mark of 105 in a race lacking in-form rivals.
7 – Oranger – He’s been competing in Hunter chases, and managed to win a half decent contest at Stratford last term. That was the highlight by quite some way, as he struggled for the most part. He doesn’t looked obviously well in and has needed his first outing in previous seasons.
8 – Mocho – This one was very in and out when with Ian Williams, and he departed to early on his reappearance at Taunton to know what he is capable of at the moment. He is another that may just get tapped for toe over this trip, and a watching brief is the saftest option.
9 – Sawpit Supreme – She is on a stiff enough mark at the moment, is very inconsistent and doesn’t look a natural chaser. The stable are starting to hit form now which is at least one plus point, but I’d be surprised if this one adds to their tally.
10 – Bertenbar – He’s gone off at 7/2 on his last 3 starts and I’ve laid him each time. I might get shot for saying it, but like a few from the stable, he looks a bit "soft" and was ultimately well beaten last time. He’s ducked easier opportunities than this and from 8lb out the handicap, I only wish I could lay him at such odds again in this, as I can’t see him breaking his maiden here.
Summary – Not a competitive race, It’ll be interesting to see how Oscar Prairie fares on his chasing debut, Prophete De Guye is a reliable yardstick and should be plugging on at the end, but BRIMHAM BOY, although 9 hasn’t had too much racing for one of his age, and had a progressive profile last season. He’s run well after a break in the past, and given that there aren’t too many obvious front runners in opposition at a track where it often pays to lie handy over fences, he’ll be hard to pass if adopting his customary front running role.
3pt win BRIMHAM BOY at 5/1
He ran well enough without ever looking like winning, Double The Trouble and connections decided to try new tactics today which didn’t help the selection. Hats off to Venetia and Sawpit Supreme, a much better effort from her to win, and Prophete De Guye will win again back over 3m+
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Another enjoyable read, Robert.
Does Brimham Boy’s defeat at Warwick in November not temper your enthusiasm a little?
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