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A few good races tomorrow (29/11/17) with a listed and class 2 at Kempton and a class 2 at Wolverhampton
Kempton
640 Listed 12f – Red Verdon returns to the scene of his listed 2nd when beaten by a neck and that is his most encouraging run to date this year albeit it has been a very disappointing one. He had showed plenty of potential last year but still hasn’t tasted victory since May 2016 in a class 3 handicap before finishing 6th in the Derby. He should go well again but has some interesting opposition.
Mountain Bell had been off for over a year when contesting a group 3 at Newbury last month and she ran very respectably on ground she likes but now has to prove she is just as effective on the AW as well as proving her fitness after a season of niggly pelvic issues.
Daphne won a fillies listed lto at Lingfield over a furlong further so will have a bit more on her plate to show she is just as effective over shorter but the long straight at Kempton can play into her hands. Those 3 are at the top of the betting and rightly so I feel.
Of the rest, Master The World will have to improve a lot on his previous forays into 12f territory, Western Hymn has over 4 lengths to find with Red Verdon, Indulged has been staying on over 10f recently but her one attempt at 11f here saw her weaken out of it, Great Court steps up from a class 4 victory at Wolverhampton (not too shabby but not flashy either), Astronomy’s choice hasn’t gone on enough to challenge at this level after an encouraging maiden victory last year and Not So Sleepy has an absence to overcome and finished 8th in this race last year. Tenerife Song looks well out of his depth. Red Verdon isn’t exactly outstanding value at 11/4 but if he runs up to the same level as last time then he’ll be up there challenging near the line.610 6f – I wont bleat on too much about this race. Reckless Endeavour is the fascinating runner here having changed hands to Jamie Osborne from Ger Lyons in Ireland. His Dundalk AW form stands up quite well on the face of it and he looks progressive over this distance. I expect him to go close. I’m not sure why Mazzini is favourite in a lot of places after a disappointing effort at Lingfield last time where he finished behind two of today’s rivals (Out Do & Intisaab) and he has a wide draw to overcome. Straight Right as low as 5/1 is clearly being priced up on his commonwealth cup run because he hasn’t shown enough for me since to warrant that low a figure.
There are a few others with plenty to prove but the one who could be dangerous is Cartographer for Martyn Meade who is coming back from an absence of roughly 4 months. She ran well for a long way when last seen over 7f and finished ahead of Marie Of Lyon who has been listed placed since. It doesn’t represent enough for me and I think 5/1 for Reckless Endeavour is the best value bet.Wolverhampton
220 1m1f104y – Just a quick note on this one as it has the unexposed contender Seniority in the field who has been surging to the front over 1m3f recently with one effort just yielding a victory and another just being pegged back in a class 2 at Kempton. This drop in distance looks sure to suit and from a good draw he can be positioned to strike in a field that doesn’t look overly strong for the level. There are a few in with a chance so if the fav doesn’t run his true race then Bronze Angel could improve from his latest good effort over a mile but has stall 12 to contend with.I’m going to play a hand on all three events and put a little treble on Red Verdon 11/4, Reckless Endeavour 5/1 and Seniority 5/2.
Hi Ho Silver!
Good luck Chivers.
To kick off the thread, I’ll get involved in a rare AW venture, and have a Bronze Angel, Cartographer double.
Good luck mate i like the AW and being putting bets on my flat thread i will.MOUNTAIN BELL 5/1 my bet in race today
Finally Red Verdon gets his head in front with a tidy ride from PJ Mcdonald. I feared the worst for Reckless Endeavour after drifting to 8/1 but he stuck on well for 3rd which meant the only disappointment was Seniority at Wolverhampton who was keen to get on with things and lacked an edge in the latter stages of the race.
There is a fairly decent class 3 handicap at Newcastle (745) tomorrow and without going into full detail I can see Fahey’s 7 year old Gelding Right Touch in with a chance to notch a first victory of the year. He is currently 7/1 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see that halved by 10 o clock tomorrow morning.
There is a decent looking conditions race tomorrow at Wolverhampton over 2 miles with the market headed by Coronation Cup runner up Frontiersman.
He is currently priced up at even money and looks very short considering he has a few things to prove. How effective will he be on the surface? Will he stay the trip? and will he overcome the concession of weight?
All these factors make him a very unattractive proposition with some rivals looking particularly dangerous.Next up at 11/2 is Curbyourenthusiasm and Watersmeet with the former having his first run in 7 months. He still has plenty to prove over this marathon trip though and will likely need it as a 7 year old although he does have good form when fresh. Watersmeet is short enough in the betting considering he was behind today’s rival Cape Cova (I’ll get on to that one) but does like it round here and wouldn’t surprise me if he were to run a big race.
Overseas challenger Funny Kid brings intriguing form to the table but how convincing it is I am not sure. He ran over 16f back in august on the grass and didn’t last home that day which tempers enthusiasm but he was only 2 lengths behind and may respond better over track and trip. There have been a few frenchies that have come over for an AW venture and they have been a little disappointing but it does say something that Maxime Guyon is booked for the ride.Cape Cova can still be seen at 14/1 with a few firms and this one could be a big improver from its last run considering it was his first run since June for a new yard. The new trip eked out a bit more and he does have smart form behind him from the last couple of seasons. He is lightly raced with only 12 runs behind him (now 5 years old) and I am surprised that he can be found almost triple the price of Watersmeet who he stayed on past last time. The form of the Newcastle conditions race has been boosted with Lord George back in fourth romping home at Kempton next time out.
The rest are currently 16/1 bar with Jukebox Jive a standout running for the in form Anthony Honeyball.This looks a good contest with Frontiersman arguably adding a touch of class but at the prices I can’t ignore the 14’s on offer for Cape Cova
Hugh Taylor put it up this morning at 8/1 so you’ve nabbed a very tidy price there indeed!
Listened to the race, disappointed that he didn’t find much at all in the straight. His form tied in closely with Watersmeet and that one has gone on to guts it out, which is also annoying as I put a squeak on the Frenchy Funny Kid and he just gone chinned. The market didn’t know what to do with Cape Cova, 5/1 all day, goes out to 9’s just before the race and then shortened into 6/1 before the off.
Never Mind.
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