Odds Line Experiment

[bluebook]

elcatero thinks I should’ve posted here instead, so here we go !

This is based on David Renham’s method outlined on his website back in 2005. First rate all runners from A to F as followes :

A. Very strong chance
B. Good chance
C. Worth considering
D. Unlikely, but cannot be dismissed
E. Poor chance
F. Virtually no chance

Rank the horses in order from A down to F and then give a percentage chance to each runner. Compare your odds with those available in search of a value bet, considering only those rated A to C.

As an example here’s my analysis of the 4:25 at Musselburgh on Saturday 7th April, a class 6 0-65 handicap run over 9 furlongs.

SELDOM : Absent 192 days which may make him vulnerable to those with race fitness, but has previously won off a layoff of 40 days so has won previously when fresh. Decent 2nd in higher grade LTO at Newcastle, and in a field not replete with pace good to see his three wins have all come in fields of 9 or less. Trainer Mel Brittain’s s/r at Musselburgh is an impressive 27% ( + £12.00 ). Rating = B

LA BACOUETTEUSE : Two victories over 10f+ on stiff tracks and looks up against it down in trip over an easy nine. Rating = E

SHAMARLANE : First start for Clive Mulhall having broke her maiden 497 days ago in a class 6 handicap over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton. Not impossible but worrying yard is 0-32 on turf. Rating = D

CABAL : Won last two starts and potentially still well handicapped off a revised rating of 58 having won off 74 on turf in June 2010. Concern with him is the small field not playing to his strengths as a confirmed hold up type. Rating = C

PROHIBITION : Another to have won its last two starts, but that was off marks of 52 and 53 ( Amy Scott claimed 3 lbs ) and 5 lb higher here. Couldn’t rule out completely but she too will need a strong pace to aim at and isn’t as attractive in my book as SELDOM and CABAL. Rating = D

Little needs to be said about the chances of MYRAID, NICHOLAS POCOCK, NAAFETHA and CARNELIAN who I all rate as F’s.

Working to a 100% odds line I came up with the following :

SELDOM B 33.3% 2/1
CABAL C 30.8% 9/4
PROHIBITION D 16.7% 5/1
SHAMARLANE D 5.9% 16/1
LA BACOUETTEUSE E 4.8% 20/1
MYRAID F 3.8% 25/1
NICHOLAS POCOCK 2.0% 50/1
NAAFETHA 2.0% 50/1
CARDELIAN 1.0% 100/1

Of course, for this sort of thing to be successful you need your runners rated A to C to make up the bulk of the winners. Here the only two possible bets are SELDOM and CABAL so it’ll be interesting to see if either offer any value come Saturday.

Your thoughts are most welcome !

[bluebook]

Moving out of my comfort zone for this next race, a class 3 novices’ chase over 20f at Carlisle ( Saturday 2:50 ).

From top to bottom :

DEGAS ART : Carries a 10 lb penalty having won its last two starts in novice company, including a win over two miles at the track on its last run. Beat Kai Broon at Kelso who subsequently won next time out in a class 4 handicap back at that track. Form of last win also franked with runner-up Saddle Pack winning his next start. Has something to find at the weights with RICH LORD and is up in trip, but looks to have a good chance in a relatively weak contest. Rating = B.

RICH LORD : Best in at the weights rated 122, like DA, carrying 11-4 and with Lucy Alexander taking off a further 5lb. First chase win LTO came over a furlong further here on heavy ground. Fifth placed Soul Bid came out and won a maiden chase next time out, although three others from that race have failed to win since. Hard to knock since he’s struck up a good relationship with rider Lucy Alexander, but worrying the Racing Post had this to say after his victory : "His rider continues to impress and she clearly gets on well with him, but his profile dictates he´s one to be taking on again next time out". Still, cannot dismiss. Rating = C.

DOUBLE EXPRESSO : Not too bad an effort last time out behind Willie Hall, but has 12lb to find with both DA and RL and would likely need both to run below par to have any chance. Rating = D

POLITICAL PADDY : Already been beaten twice over course/distance in slightly lower grade and requires a leap of faith to imagine him getting involved. Rating = E

SHEEPCLOSE : Won debut bumper back in 2009 but very modest over hurdles since. Switch to fences only hope of a revival and that surely still a slim one. Rating = F

So in order of ratings we have :

DEGAS ART B 40% 6/4
RICH LORD C 35% 15/8
DOUBLE EXPRESSO D 14% 6/1
POLITICAL PADDY E 8% 12/1
SHEEPCLOSE F 3% 33/1

[bluebook]

To be worthy of a bet a horse must be rated between A to C and offer at least a 50% overlay ( so if it is 6/4 the required odds would be 9/4, if 2/1 it would be 3/1, and so on ). It is necessary to have at least some margin for error for all those times one is hideously wrong… ! Prices of all possible contenders will be compared in the five minutes before the off and bets struck on those offering the best value at that time and that time only. It’ll ether be two points win or one point each-way.

[bluebook]

3:55 Carlisle class 3 handicap chase over 24 1/2f.

MORGAN BE : Hasn’t scored off this sort of mark (121) since January 2009. Ideally wants it softer and all wins going left-handed. Carlisle course record = 5873. Rating = E

VAMIZI : Carlisle record = 221 and only 5lb higher for 3 1/4L win LTO. Obvious claims back here. Rating = B

HARRY FLASHMAN : Looks happiest going left-handed and all three chase wins at Hexham. Debut at this track. Not impossibly treated off 120 ( won off 109 but gone close off 120 already )and decent record fresh, but chase record going right-handed ( 42234, all at Perth ) suggest place chances stronger than that for the win. Rating = D

YOU KNOW YOURSELF : Horse-for-course with a 100% record here having won twice over 20f. Falling back to a winnable mark after a spell in the doldrums and worth considering with yard in good form. Rating = C

AMMUNITION : Last win came over the marathon distance of 31 furlongs at the stamina sapping Exeter. Surely wants a greater test of stamina than this now, for all it’s a stiff 3 miles. Rating = D

ISLA PEARL FISHER : 4-12 over fences and won off 106 LTO. Rated 110 here but Lucy Alexander claiming 5lbs so ostensibly running off 105. However, her record on IPF now reads U4. Legit’ excuse for 4th as ground was riding too soft, but being unseated three out at Newcastle strikes a note of caution. Rating = B

Odds line :

VAMIZI : B 29% 5/2
ISLA PEARL FISHER : B 27% 11/4
YOU KNOW YOURSELF : C 17% 5/1
HARRY FLASHMAN : D 13% 13/2
AMMUNITION : D 9% 10/1
MORGAN BE : E 5% 20/1

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