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Asked something similar in the horse racing section but might get a better feed back here.
Are there any systems that actively search for value bets?
Anyone heard of any similar system?
Do you think it could work?Ginge
Value Is EverythingI have not researched the exact idea you have in mind but I use the Racing Post betting forecast in a similar way. Another way to work might be to wait for the live betting market and bet only if a better price than the longer of your chosen bookies’ early prices could be obtained.
I have not researched the exact idea you have in mind but I use the Racing Post betting forecast in a similar way. Another way to work might be to wait for the live betting market and bet only if a better price than the longer of your chosen bookies’ early prices could be obtained.
Trouble is Goodlife, I asked the other day if the Racing Post betting forecast is what the author thinks it will be or should be? It seems it is the prices the author thinks the market will be rather than what the market should be. Hope you follow that.
Therefore the forecast is not actually what even the Racing Post thinks it should be, it is nobody’s opinion. In effect they are trying to second guess the predjudices of the betting public.Do you bring the prices of the RP forecast down to 100%? Or leave them as they are? Goodlife.
Value Is EverythingHi goodlife & Gingertipster
i think the RP forecast is a useful piece of data, and is produced by an odds compilier just like the other betting markets. This data is worth noting because it’s a pre-activity benchmark, if a horse opens up a lot shorter important influences maybe at work.
byefrom
carlisleHi goodlife & Gingertipster
i think the RP forecast is a useful piece of data, and is produced by an odds compilier just like the other betting markets. This data is worth noting because it’s a pre-activity benchmark, if a horse opens up a lot shorter important influences maybe at work.
byefrom
carlisleIn my experience Carlisle,the RP forecast is not acurate enough to come to such a conclusion. I would not call the people who do the Spotlights professional odds compilers, though they do a pretty good job. When I do my 100% books, then look at the RP website, it is often obvious they have made a rick. When a horse opens up a lot shorter I think it is most likely because Spotlight under estimated its chance than anything else.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingIn my experience Carlisle,the RP forecast is not acurate enough to come to such a conclusion. I would not call the people who do the Spotlights professional odds compilers, though they do a pretty good job. When I do my 100% books, then look at the RP website, it is often obvious they have made a rick. When a horse opens up a lot shorter I think it is most likely because Spotlight under estimated its chance than anything else.
Hi Ginger and Carlisle,
I have done a fair amount of research into the RPBF and came to the conclusion some time ago that it is a useful tool when assessing value. I usually round down to 100% and only bet if a better price than I am left with can be obtained. I know that this is probably far from a perfect method of calculating value but it has saved me a fortune by preventing me from backing short-priced “good thingsâ€Hi
I dont believe that horse races can be analysed as a complete entity, with the aim of producing a 100% book. There are to many shiffting, unknown and unreliable factors. So the larger the number of runners the weaker the analysis becomes.
My approach is to select seemingly solvable races that contain no more than 4 or 5 "live" contenders. Then assemble my favoured key indictators and steadily try to assign a risk assessment to the contenders. The "non contenders" must also be given a smaller (coupled) slice of the pie.
That could be described as a "100% book" but i feel my version will exert a certain pressure that forces out the "value" selection.
byefrom
carlisleCarlisle,
Before exchanges, bookies were capable (still are) of making their early prices. By giving each runner a percentage, all adding up to 100%. Then adding their mark up to get their offered prices.So why shouldn’t punters be capable of making a 100% book?
I do see how you do things though.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHi Gingertipster
i just think that it’s hard enough to produce one risk estimation, let alone one for every runner. For me, it’s a kin to whistling in the wind. Bookies have to give every runner a price. Otherwise it would look "ODD"…
Plus i am only interested in the "LIVE" ones…… i don’t want to try and pinch 20/1 about a 16/1 chance. If i am wrong i might starve.
Any successful method must be relatively easy to operate and maintain a good level of confidence.
byefrom
carlisleCarlisle,
I don’t find it "relatively easy" to make a profit. Got to work very hard.Trouble is if I don’t study the outsiders I don’t know how much chance they have, as a group they might take 50% of the book (in a big handicap), even 10% is a significant ammount. And I would not know how their running styles will hinder / help a fancied runner e.g. If there were two front runners in the "outsiders" it could hinder a "prominent" fancied horse and help a fancied hold up one. So effecting the price I would be willing to take for those fancied runners.
I find every horses chance effects the chance of every other one. But as always if it works for you….
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHi Gingertipster
i don’t ignore outsiders if i consider them to be "live contenders".
Yeah…. i agree your method does sound like hard work
byefrom
carlislei think the RP forecast is a useful piece of data, and is produced by an odds compilier just like the other betting markets. This data is worth noting because it’s a pre-activity benchmark, if a horse opens up a lot shorter important influences maybe at work.
A horse whose opening show in the live market is significantly shorter than on the morning tissues and furthermore remains at those odds or is cut further is known as the ‘corner horse’. Caused in the main by the ‘whispers’ and ‘good words’ of connections emanating from the bookies’ bush telegraph.
Rarer beasts nowadays thanks to the Betfair-derived mature(ish) and transparent early markets.
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