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I think Awe Inspiring in this. I was taken by her win last time and immediately thought Oaks filly afterwards. Do you think APOB will use either her or Cabaret as a pacemaker though, because obviously in that case she isn’t in the same league as Remember When ability-wise. It looks wide open.
I think the winner is Akdarena, however think Gertrude Bell could potentially cause an upset. Sinndar had a few good middle distance fillys roundabout 2005 or so. Shawanda, Pictavia (not quite as good but decent) and I did like the way this one held off her challengers at chester on gd-fm up the run in, so I think the main question is will she stay, but could be decent.
Hernando had Look here a few years ago win this (may be mistaken but think it was hernando) and the nijinsky line does fairly well over jumps with fillies (quevega obviously), especially on good ground. Bolger is a master with fillies, and this one is being well supported (obviously Jim would never be a man to bet). Looks the one to beat if vground is genuinely good.
Another point I have noted is that there has been a fair amount of e/w money for Barry Hills Champagne Lifestyle over since her defeat at chester, and that was a pretty decent run as she was always going to improve for 1m4f on good ground. Montjeu has still not had a a decent filly to speak of, which is a big negative but does have things in her favour here, as on a gd-ground oaks staying is very important, as his ability to handle gd ground.
Ceilidh House is a worry as Becket had Look here beaten at lingfield and she comes here looking a decent sort, but still think she had no excuses at lingfield and should have faired better if being up to this.
Cecil I think seemed to be winning everything in may by having everything tuned for a peak at that time, much as sir michael stoute was doing a few seasons ago, and as John Gosden has also done in recent aprils, however I dont think he has the oaks winner if the ground is good.
O’briens Cabaret would be interesting if she didnt scream pacemaker, however I cannot imagine that they will want to set up a blistering gallop for Remember When and so if it is sedate enough she could stay at the front longer than her price would indicate. Remember When should like good ground and obviously has a chance if staying.
Sajjhaa, Ramoush, Marie De Medici, Timepiece, and Meeznah want gd-fm or better to have a chance IMO. Possibly the same with Aviate. Snow Fairy I think probably wants 2 furlongs less and some cut.
None of this is any exact science but I think that on gd-ground Akdarena ticks every box, and gertrude bell is a danger.
What do you think to Akdarena wearing a visor? I can’t remember an Oaks winner wearing one. Having said that I narrowed it down to Gertrude Bell, Akdarina and Meeznah, who might get a place on her way to running in the Grand National and could possibly still be running when the rest have gone home. However, instead of going to the bookies I fell asleep… may regret that tomorrow.
Moe, totally agree about Meeznah. Looked at her earlier today and she was a shining beacon of light for me in an otherwise very bad contest, in my humble opinion. Some very nice 2yo maiden form and she’ll relish a fast pace – with Bikini Babe, Akdarena, Marie De Medici and Gertrude Bell, surely they’ll go hell for leather?
With Meeznah being by Dynaformer, I would think she’d be best on a quicker surface, much like Dyna Waltz who I can only assume is being aimed at the Ribblesdale on that basis. If it was quicker ground I would definitely consider her a bet, but there are a few smart looking ones for those conditions.
I think you are all looking for outsiders that are really just that. Did you see the horse that Meeznah beat run yesterday? Was beaten out of sight in a very average maiden. Tregoning and Cecil know what classic winners look like and they have every belief in their horses. They have also said that they are worried about two or three others. My guess is (and admittedly it is not very original) the winner will have to come from those three plus Akdarena and Rumoush. Sajhaa would have to be very special to win on only her second run – not saying she can’t but would have to very special. Anyway good luck to all and lets hope it produces a decent horse or two.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Can’t think of a Group 1 as open as this in a long term, with Fav guessing to go off at 5s.
Backed the Johnson horses at 120s each on betfair, anything can happen.
Would love to see Cecil win the Oaks, if anyone deserves it, he does.
The O’Brien second and third fillies look over-priced. Both look likely to stay and like to go forward in their races but with Akdarena and Bikini Babe in the line-up its unlikely they will have to lead.
Remember When looks unlikely to say.Remember When looks unlikely to say.
Not a "talking horse" then??????
I’ll get me coat!
Inevitable element of guesswork in trying to figure out which filly will improve the most from what they’ve shown so far on a racecourse … confused and contradictory form lines not helpful.
A fascinating race nevertheless and primarily one to sit back and enjoy with minimal stakes interest only.
Was at Nottingham last October when Ceilidh House scooted up in her maiden and was mightily impressed … whether there were valid excuses for the Lingfield run remains to be seen but it wasn’t without promise and the 14/1 on offer this morning looks fair value to me … I’m guessing from her action she may have found the good to firm ground at Lingfield not quite to her liking.
Stable is in flying form as well and are 6/16 since 24th May.
I can honestly say I haven’t even looked at this contest.
I was very taken by Aviate in the Musidora. However, I get the impression that Henry Cecil considers Timepiece her superior, but has yet to display this talent on the racecourse.
I would love to see the ‘Ladies Man’ get a 1-2 in this – it certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility (likewise, the same owner enjoying a similar result in The Derby).
Sires looking for a possible double:
Galileo
Cabaret / At First Sight, Midas TouchMontjeu
Awe Inspiring, Bikini Babe, Champagnelifestyle / Coordinated Cut, Hot Prospect Jan VermeerKing’s Best
Sajjhaa / WorkforceLooked at the chart I penned, a bit like crystal ball gazing. It seems the class fillies are near the top of the card and the fast fillies are at the bottom with a dearth of D and course form. Proven quick ruuners are Nos 14,15, 12, 11.
Oaks (my form rating priced to a 100% book)
1. 8/1 Akdarena, LTO made all clear stayed on strongly ver easily won 1/9 +4L, blinkers worked. Bolger/Manning best combo.
2. 13/2 Aviate, LTO held up headway not clear run soon ridden switched ran on led won 1/8 +hd, unbeaten. Cecil/Queally 4th best combo.
3. 15/1, O’Brien/Hefferman 3rd best combo.
4. 100/1
5. 25/1, class?
6. 18/1
7. 33/1
8. 15/1
9. 18/1
10. 11/1 Meeznah, LTO led tracked led soon in command ridden clear comfortable won ¼ +9, well breb but tough today?
11. 15/1, class? O’Brien/Murtagh 2nd best combo.
12. 11/1 Rumoush, LTO in touch ridden to chase kept on no chance with stand side 7/17 -7L, respected.
13. 15/1
14. 9/1 Snow Fairy, LTO stumbled held up progress led headed hung left no extra 2/5 -1L, extra 2 furlongs a concern?
15. 15/1- Total Posts 17716
I’ll be cheering home the Cecil pair too. Go Henry!
The Gosden non runner Dyna Waltz has no entries. Off to the USA?
- Total Posts 17716
I’ll be cheering home the Cecil pair too. Go Henry!
The Gosden non runner Dyna Waltz has no entries. Off to the USA?
Injured
Judging by the first few races it would appear that the ground may be gd-fm. I’ll go with Meeznah now defititely, but think she will want the pace to be strong to have a chance against some faster types. Will also go on gertrude bell.
However I think the leading chance is probably correctly held by aviate. If Jarvis’s horse has any potential she probably has everything in her favour to do something. With Ramoosh, Timepiece etc it’s a matter of whether they can stay but the ground is in their favour to do so, but hard to really pick past aviate at the prices of the gd-fm horses.
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