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Buveur D’air was very good at Newbury, arguably the most visually impressive novice this season. The million dollar question is will he translate that level to a very different course like Cheltenham? The 16/1 quote for the Supreme didn’t seem too stingy compared to West Wizard who was half the price having achieved considerably less. That said it might be worth bearing in mind that the same connections sidestepped Cheltenham with Activial.
Barters Hill’s Newbury and Aintree bumper form looks very strong but again you have the question mark as to whether he can show the same ability on a different track. His grinding style might also be better suited to an Albert Bartlett than a Neptune, particularly if the ground ends up on the quick side.
The two Mullins novices were impressive today, if now quite up to the standard of Vautour and Douvan. Long Dog has probably more potential, but Buchasson almost prevailed despite jumping very stickily. Both strong contenders wherever they go, but not up to Mullins recent standards
Hold on a Min there boys, things are going to get serious this Saturday at Navan
No entry…..where is he?
The Supreme market could be about to get a shake up – MIN is declared to run at Punchestown tomorrow!!
The Supreme market could be about to get a shake up – MIN is declared to run at Punchestown tomorrow!!
Very VERY impressive
Yes, he was very impressive in what will almost certainly turn out to be a very ordinary race. Only one horse tried to make a race of it and the second was just ridden to be placed.
Was it impressive enough to warrant halving what already looked a very prohibitive price? Of course not.
The three horses who finished behind Buveur D’Air would all have bolted up in today’s Punchestown race. At this stage the Newbury race remains the standard, by some distance, but as per usual where a Mullins horse is concerned the market prefers hype to substance.
I take it stilvi isnt on min. I was very very impressed with min and although I’m partly talking through my pocket with a hefty 25/1 antepost post bet for the supreme and 50s for the neptune.
The way he travelled and jumped through the race I think the 7s still available looks good value and won’t be around for long.
He may not even be fully race fit as he hasn’t ran for over a year and as Willie also thought before the race the ground would be a bit soft and he would improve for good ground.Yes, he was very impressive in what will almost certainly turn out to be a very ordinary race. Only one horse tried to make a race of it and the second was just ridden to be placed.
Was it impressive enough to warrant halving what already looked a very prohibitive price? Of course not.
The three horses who finished behind Buveur D’Air would all have bolted up in today’s Punchestown race. At this stage the Newbury race remains the standard, by some distance, but as per usual where a Mullins horse is concerned the market prefers hype to substance.
no doubt his opponents were ordinary. But to win by 14 lengths on the bridle with super jumping he done everything that was asked of him and more. We know bookies cut odds drastically that’s what they do. However there has been talk about this horse for months now and I think that was a taking performance on his return from year off.
Last 3 years supreme –
2013 – Champagne fever – Ricci, Mullins, Walsh
2014 – Vautour – Ricci, Mullins, Walsh
2015 – Douvan – Ricci, Mullins, WalshSo when the same connections have a talk horse who bolts up first time out you can see why they cut the horse.
I take it stilvi isnt on min. I was very very impressed with min and although I’m partly talking through my pocket with a hefty 25/1 antepost post bet for the supreme and 50s for the neptune.
How did you guess? At that price you are basically backing Mullins/Ricci/Walsh (as explained above) rather than a horse. That’s not my sort of bet. He might end up winning and giving you a nice pay day but at the moment he really shouldn’t even be favourite let alone 5/1.
The horse couldn’t be any more impressive than he was. The 2nd won a point to point on the bridle by 5 lengths after being almost brought down, left 10 lengths behind the rest of the field earlier in the race.
Buveur dair Imo may not run in the supreme the ground as nicky said was the worst he’s seen and very testing. Apart from wait for me who jumped awful I don’t think time will tell it was a much better field. And in my personal opinion william henry yet to be seen will be hendersons main supreme horse.
The main danger for min in the supreme may also come from the dermot weld horse forgotten rules who will be out in a maiden hurdle christmas time.
Yanworth has also impressed me and Imo is the best of the English challenge we’ve seen but once again he may step up in trip to the neptune.Backing Mullins/Ricci/Walsh for Festival winners, especially novices, holds plenty of appeal, especially at those prices (I’m not on, unfortunately).
The Mullins team seems to have nailed the recipe, for now at least, as nothing lasts, especially in this game. But until the potency goes out of the mix, it’s worth cashing in on. Even at the 7s on offer, Min makes plenty of appeal bearing in mind his next race will be the one taken by Vautour and Douvan. No doubt he’ll be very short there, and if he wins will be halved in price again for Cheltenham.
Mullins will do all he can to get him to the festival unbeaten, and the bandwagon on the day will see him off at 7/4. A bet at 7s is really just a gamble on him staying sound.
It seems a common trait on here talking up ante-post bets as if they are somehow past the post. Now we even have someone who more usually puts up 33/1 pokes suggesting that 7/1 about what still remains at this stage a hype horse is somehow value. Yes, he might halve in price if he wins his next race and he might go off 7/4 but no bookmaker I know actually pays out on conjecture. The Supreme by its very nature is not an easy market to predict. Chances are there will be several performances between now and March to match or better that of Min.
I don’t think it would be folly to suggest that Buveur D’Air’s Newbury win was a stone better than what Min achieved. The pointer who chased Min home was never competitive and it would be stretching the imagination to compare him with a horse who was placed in a Festival bumper. I have already warned there is a chance that Buveur D’Air might swerve the Supreme but there are doubts surrounding all horses four months off the Festival.
Stilvi, I don’t put him up as though past the post, I put him up on the basis that if things go to plan – and with Mullins and the festival, they do so more often than not – he represents very good value. He need not win for me or anyone else to get a nice profit from him if he does go off substantially lower than 7s.
As for 33/1 pokes, that’s nice territory, and I like to try and stay in it. But value is value at any price if your judgement is right. I’ve had wonderful value in the past at 7/4
Iv backed barters hill at 10/1 to win any race at the festival.
I’m pretty sure the albert bartlett should be his target but I think 10s is a fair price to win any race.
Hes beat the likes of buveur dair twice. Bellshill brain power and altior amongst other in bumpers and most recently beat north hill Harvey 14 lengths who has bolted up since against decent opposition including the highly thought of baden.Hes a big beast of a horse and i love the way he Finds plenty of the bridle and really wants to win.
He hasn’t been passed in a race yet and Imo he’s the main danger to my bets in the neptune and bartlett and at 10s to cover both races. I want him on my side.Rocky – I was just about to post on here about Barters Hill and was hoping to get the opinions from people much more knowledge than me. Been incredibly taken with him and like you say had some serious form – I struggle to find a novice horse who’s form is as strong as his but will be underrated being with Ben Pauling.
Likely to go for the Albert Bartlet do we think? Sounds like the Challow Hurdle is next up but I get the impression another good showing in that could lead them down the Neptune route, with it being the ‘sexier’ race.
Who was the 10/1 with if you mind me asking? As I was weighing up a 20/1 Neptune and 14/1 Albert Bartlett otherwise
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