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From a breeding standpoint there’s one candidate that jumps off the page and grabs you.
Old Vic’s 2 out of the last 3 years (Comply or Die; Don’t Push It)
The Damsire is Montelimar (sire of Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter)
What Montelimar adds over Alleged (damsire of Don’t Push It) is that Montelimar is Alleged bred to a LeFabeleaux mare. That’s a concentration of the Rabelais bloodline. Which is the very story of National breeding.
You find more Rabelais bloodlines on the dam’s side through LeBavard and Vulgan. Sires who turn up on the dam’s side of Numbersixvalverde.
Reading the form through the prism of this perfect stamina laden National Pedigree, one sees that the history of the form since a keeping on 3rd in a 3m1f Gd 1 aged 7, after which it was rated 169, is that of running over inadequate trips.
Now rated 141 as a consequence, it gets as stone and 5 lbs from it’s 3 parts brother yet is at least 10 times the price.
It’s the National, I can’t say it WILL win, but it’s certainly bred to do the job, looks thrown in to me, and is unquestionably a generous price –
Dessie Hughes’s In Compliance
When the phrase "a wide open race" is used sometimes it can be misleading but in this case it certainly applies. I can make a case for at least 15 of the horses as winners but the big question to be answered is the battle between experience v potential. On one hand you have horses like The Midnight Club, Oscar Time,Ballabrigs, What A Friend and Quinz who have never been around the course before versus Dont Push It, Big Fella Thanks, Backstage, Arbor Supreme who have all had the experience of Grand National Raceday
When it comes to having a bet in the race, the Grand National more than any race in the World tends to throw up the same faces year on year. Its such a unique test that some horses just improve out of recognition for meeting the fences. It would be nice to believe that a young up and coming horse could seize the day but it needs to be taken on trust that these young horses will take to the whole event
From a betting point of View i want to back a horse who has a solid undenyable chance of making the frame and i will be going with experience over potential. Its hard to believe going in to a race like this that a punter has a "cert" that he/she can back, its better to find one or 2 that you feel had solid e/w claims. Dont Push It, Big Fella Thanks and State Of Play are my fancies and i will be delighted if any of them even make the first 5 in what is undoubtedly the greatest race in the World
Finally got my shorlist down to:-
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE – Despite the interrupted prep, gets 4miles (at least) and trainer looks like Bruce Forsyth’s younger meaner brother!
VIC VENTURI – Winner of a Becher and was unlucky in being brought down (after nearly being knocked over at the first), despite age creeping up I’ll give him one more chance
DON’T PUSH IT – Scrubbed from my shortlist last year at the last minuted (Doh!). Got 14’s in the week and expect to get placed – not win.
Got IN COMPLIANCE in the office sweep.
Midnight Club 10/1 and Killyglen 66-1 e/w 6 places with bog lo0k a good deal from Victor Chandler versus exchange prices.
- Total Posts 17716
1:Majestic Concorde 2:Quinz 3:Bluesea Cracker
As far as current value is concerned:
1. Silver By Nature
2. Niche Market
3. The Midnight Club
4. Skippers Brig
5. West End Rocker6. Majestic Concorde
7. BecauseicouldntseeValue Is EverythingHoot nanny we are looking at roughly 20-odd finishers today i reckon. Last time the race was this competitive was Hedgehunters year in 05 on the same ground. Course with that said; the fourth fence out in the country is riding miles higher than usual. Just watch the Topham yesterday; Dev could berely see over it. I know i’m predicting a lot of finishers, but there is a big chance of a real pile up at that one today. It’s very similar to an incident in 1970 when the first open ditch was riding just about as high as the chair and caused pileup’s not only in the foxhunters, but on both circuits of the National aswell!
Every year i like to guess how each horse will do in terms of finishing, falling etc. There’s really no guessing who could go down at the 4th/20th, so i’m going to pretend it’s all normal. Well this year i share with you… my guess!
Don’t Push It – 0
Tidal Bay – U
What A Friend – 0
Vic Venturi – 2
Majestic Concorde – 0
Or Noir De Somoza – F
Dooneys Gate – P
Big Fella Thanks – 0
The Tother One – 1
Ballabriggs – 0
The Midnight Club – 0
Niche Market – P
Silver By Nature – 3
Backstage – F
Chief Dan George – 4
Calgary Bay – F
Killyglen – F
Oscar Time – 5
Quinz – 0
Becauseicouldntsee – 0
Comply Or Die – 0
Quolibet – P
Grand Slam Hero – F
State Of Play – 0
King Fontaine – U
In Compliance – P
Hello Bud – P
West End Rocker – 0
Santas Sun – F
Bluesea Cracker – 0
That’s Rhythm – 0
Piraya – 0
Can’t Buy Time – F
Character Building – 0
Ornais – 0
Arbor Supreme – U
Royal Rosa – P
Skippers Brig – 0
Golden Kite – 0I realise of the 5 i pointed out last time; i have 2 of them falling, but i could easily be wrong on both accounts and i thought at such big odds they were worth the risk…
My Prediction:
Don’t Push It –
4
Tidal Bay – PU
What A Friend – PU
Vic Venturi – 16
Majestic Concorde – 7
Or Noir De Somoza – F
Dooneys Gate – PU
Big Fella Thanks – F
The Tother One – PU
Ballabriggs – 12
The Midnight Club –1
Niche Market –
3
Silver By Nature –
2
Backstage – UR
Chief Dan George – 15
Calgary Bay – PU
Killyglen – 14
Oscar Time – 8
Quinz – UR
Becauseicouldntsee –5
Comply Or Die – 17
Quolibet – F
Grand Slam Hero – F
State Of Play – 11
King Fontaine – F
In Compliance – UR
Hello Bud – 13
West End Rocker – 9
Santas Sun – F
Bluesea Cracker – 10
That’s Rhythm – F
Piraya – PU
Can’t Buy Time – F
Character Building – PU
Ornais – UR
Arbor Supreme – F
Royal Rosa – PU
Skippers Brig – 6
Golden Kite – PUValue Is Everythingpedigreeman; I think this is the first time in his life that In Compliance has carried less than 11st. Didn’t seem to jump the fences terribly well last year, but canny trainer wouldn’t run him if he was that bad. Horse could be anything and has actually had a good few runs this season with this race in mind..so many horses have missed out on prep runs because of the weather. Wouldn’t tell anyone to back him, but wouldn’t put them off either.
Main fancies:
Silver by Nature
Big Fella Thanks
Bluesea Cracker
Becauseicouldn’tseeOutsiders to run well:
Surface to Air
The totherone
Calgary BayHope they all come back safe..
I’ve gone for
Niche Market
Hello Bud
Character Building
Big Fella ThanksI’ll kick myself for not backing these if they run well
Vic Venturi
Chief Dan George
Killy Glen
Dooneys Gate
As I’ve talked myself out of backing them.I have my main bet e/w on Ballabriggs, simply because of the McCain family…they know the national and their horses often do well, here I am talking about Amberleigh House (finished 3rd on its first national, the next year it won) and Cloudy Lane who was very promising but had an unlucky fall in 2009. Although Ballabriggs may not have the big experience behind it I trust the McCains to put in a horse which they think has a serious chance.
Other ones I will put a sly quid on will be Backstage, Quinz, Silver By Nature and The Midnight Club.
Good luck to all!
After much thought ive gone with
The Midnight Club
Quinze
State Of Playand at bigger prices
The Tother One
Tidal BaySurely with 5 pix I may have the winner
By process of elimination.
I don’t back 11 year olds or over they are usually past their best and have a poor win ratio. This takes out:
Dont Push it
Vic Venturi
Chief Dan George
Comply or Die
State of Play
In Compliance
Hello Bud
Santas Son
Thats Rhythm
Character Builder
Royal RosaThats got rid of a quarter of the field.
I can’t have any horse that failed to get round in their last race or has fallen this season, this takes out:
Quolibet
Grand Slam Hero
West End Rocker
Piraya
Cant Buy Time
Or Nor De Somoza
Big Fella Thanks
Niche MarketThat’s half the field out
I can’t have any horse that has no finished in the first 3 in any race this season, this takes out:
The Tother one
Bluesea Cracker
Surface to AirI can’t have any horse that does not have a win to run ratio of at least 25%, this takes out:
Calgary Bay
Oscar Time
Becauseicouldntsee
Arbor SupremeWith the ground drying out I cannot have any horse that has not won a race on ground that is good or better, this takes out:
Dooneys Gate
The Midnight Club
Silver By Nature
Skippers BrigThat’s 3/4 of the field out, we are left with:
Tidal Bay 40/1 £24.39 win
What A Friend 14/1 £66.67 win
Majestic Concorde 33/1 £29.41 win
Ballabrigs 18/1 £52.63 win
Backstage 16/1 £58.82 win
Killygen 80/1 £12.35 win
Quinz 16/1 £58.82 win
King Fontaine 100/1 £9.90 win
Ornais 125/1 £7.94 win
Golden Kite 80/1 £12.35 winTotal stake £333 to win £1,000 if any of the above or 2/1 for any of this group to win.
I can’t have any horse that has no finished in the first 3 in any race this season, this takes out:
The Tother one
Bluesea Cracker
Surface to AirThe Tother One came second in the Charlie Hall in October…
based on Rating(own) > Tissue(own) > Overlay(highest first).
Backs inbold
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Quolibet
Tidal Bay
Comply Or Die
Skippers Brig
Niche Market
Or Noir De Samoza
Ballabriggs
Don’t Push It- Total Posts 17716
My bets;
£50 E/W – In Compliance and Grand Slam Hero
Good luck today everyone
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