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What are peoples opinions on these 7?
Hello Bud
Tidal Bay
Or Noir de Zomoza
Niche Market
Becauseicouldntsee
Calgary Bay
What a FriendThose are the few ive narrowed it down to, Niche Market and What a Friend being the most fancied imo.
24.
1FP18P
Grand Slam Hero
(63 days) 10 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 143
Fruitful summer campaign, won all four completed starts including Summer Plate. Still looked on upgrade after final success (August, 3m1½f). Now off 5 lbs higher mark. Never jumping with any fluency in two well spaced out races since. Possibly something physically wrong. A ColemanMr Wilson,
GSH is one of THE worst jumpers in the race. Made mistakes on just about EVERY recent start. Very little chance of getting around let alone winning it. Save your money.Watch him bolt up now.
Value Is EverythingThanks for all the comments about my preview.
Gingertipster,
That’s the best National preview I’ve ever read outside of the trade papers – and it beats most of those too. Thanks for putting in all the work it must have taken.
Have you a blog/website?
Produced for a West Berkshire Racing Club Grand National preview I went to last night, at Newbury racecourse. The Chairman liked it so much,invited me on the panel.
Just hope either The midnight Club or Silver by Nature wins now.
No, have not got a blog or website as yet Joe. Project for the future. My tips are in the Daily Lays And Plays section here.
Mark
Value Is EverythingGinge
Extremely thorough review and I was reading your pedigree analysis very closely, as is my want!
The only thing I must add, and it will probably be superfluous in any case, is that Golden Kite is from the family of West Tip and Royal Athlete so I can’t agree that he has outstayed his pedigree. Nevertheless, I have harped on about Strong Gale’s influence for many years now so despite his lofty connections he still wouldn’t stay 4m4f!
Don’t forget Niche Market is from the family of Amberleigh House too. But again, I don’t hold much faith in Niche Market getting the trip either.
Many just can’t have him, which is fine by me. Five of the last six Irish winners of the race had won or been runner up in a race over 3m 4f+. The sixth was runner up in a Topham. This horse has finshed runner up over 4 miles. It is of course BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE.
I remembered your words KC, about Strong Gale. Did not know much about the dam of Golden Kite tbh. Interesting dam is from the family of West Tip and Royal Athlete. I know sire Anshan is a stronger influence for stamina than his racing career suggests (effective up to 9f); sired such as Powerstation and even McKelvey. But even so, with sire and dam’s sire influences, can’t believe he’ll get further than 3m anyway.Did know the Amberleigh House connection, but did not mention it because I did not think there would be anyone doubting Niche Market’s stamina. He’d be in my 7 value horses.
As would Becauseicouldntsee, totally with you on him KC.
The ones I particularly like are:
Silver By Nature
The Midnight Club
Becauseicouldntsee
Don’t Push It
Niche Market
West End Rocker
Skippers BrigWhat do you think about the chances of Skippers Brig staying the trip on breeding KC? (if he gets in).
Value Is EverythingI think Mullins second string Dooneys Gate could run a big race a big price, and also Ornais for Paul Nicholls.
What are peoples opinions on these 7?
Hello Bud
Tidal Bay
Or Noir de Zomoza
Niche Market
Becauseicouldntsee
Calgary Bay
What a FriendThose are the few ive narrowed it down to, Niche Market and What a Friend being the most fancied imo.
Hello Bud
– An old favourite of mine. Can’t go wrong with a Scottish National and Becher winner, can you? Naturally his age is something of a worry and Twisters isn’t in the best form, so i’d say there are better bets out there. I reckon he’ll have a lot of fun on the first circuit and a half, but will drop out some time between Valentines and the Melling Road.
Tidal Bay
– It’s been said a million times, he’ll either love it or hate it and on this day i reckon he’ll be so so. Plenty of class, but also plenty of weight. This one is just too risky for me. I’d actually have good money on him refusing at the first!
Or Noir de somoza
– Straight up don’t think he’ll stay. Classy? Perhaps. But class doesn’t give you wings. I’d be surprised if this one finishes.
Niche Market
– I was watching ‘Kinky Boots’ with my mum the other night and they said "niche market" so much; my mum was convinced it was a sign that this is the one to be on. He certainly has the form behind him; Irish National, Hennessy and Aon places, but i have a rule that horses who pull up in previous years do not go on to win and although this one did pull up through injury i still can’t be on him.
Becauseicouldntsee
– In a years time he will be one of my top tips for this race, but this is coming way too soon. Only 7 chase starts and no wins over 3 miles. Sure he was second in a 4 miler but that race wasn’t exactly filled with major stayers. He is a good horse with a National in him, but at 8 years old i’m going to leave it a year. I hope i don’t go on to regret it.
Calgary Bay
– Another one people are secretly liking. He ran a great Gold Cup last year, but again i’m not huge on 8 year olds. It’s a great age to see whether a horse has the stomach for it, but not so much for winning. To be honest i just don’t think he’ll stay. He’s got the right things going for him, but i prefer others.
What a Friend
– Aaah another 8 year old! This one is interesting as a runner, but he just hasn’t had the right prep. He’s had his class tested this season, but not his grit and without it i’m not sure i can be on him
It’s a nice list, but there are others i’d rather be on. Don’t let me sway your opinion though
Another horse worth looking at is
Killyglen
. Personally i’m not too fond on him, but he’s got ticks in all the right boxes. Horses who were good novices tend to go well here and he was one of the best. His form might not be up to scratch these days, but he seems like a really interesting look and at 66’s he’s good value. Has a very good rider on his back too with Robbie Power, responsible for Silver Birch’s win. I’m rather tempted to oust That’s Rhythm for him, but i’m going to wait and see if Roll Along gets the go ahead.
With all these 50-50’s we might even get an Always Waining to the lineup… which would be great!
Hi Ginge
Skippers Brig came out top when I was looking at pedigrees as I am sure you can imagine.
When going through the pedigrees I came out with one that people would not immediately think of, to say the least.
Skippers Brig topped my list, with the ill fated One Cool Cookie, his brother, In Compliance and wait for it……..Santa’s Son!
We should really be sitting here talking of Zaffaran as having already had a Grand National winner. People may disagree but I believe Beau would have walked away with the 2001 National.
The ex bloodstock reporter for the RP, Janet Hickman, once replied to a letter I sent her and she believed that Zaffaran would have a Grand National winner and to look out for Flemensfirth as a potentially good stallion of top staying NH horses. This was in about 1999, so she knew her stuff.
However, I think this might just be Zaffaran’s last chance of a win in the race (unless Let Yourself Go develops into a National horse next year).
Zaffaran has produced some real good marthon stayers like Beau, as well as Moral Support and NH Chase winner Another Rum.
You’ve got Last Suspect’s sire Above Suspicion in his blood as well as my favourite of course, Roselier, and the much less heard of Black Minstrel (in Bluesea Cracker too). Black Minstrel was another good source of marathon stayers like NH Chase winner Rith Dubh and Borders National winner Golden Drum.
Then further back still is the triple Grand National winning stallion Vulgan.
Skippers Brig is every inch a proper staying chaser. If he runs then I am expecting a huge show.
IdianInk,
I’m with you on COD – has a much better chance than price suggests.
GingerT,
Are you happy for me to publish your post on my blog with a credit and link to your original?
Thanks
Joe
http://wp.me/1o7dNIdianInk,
I’m with you on COD – has a much better chance than price suggests.
Totally agree, primed to tun a huge race. I’ve made him my 2nd biggest winner in the race. ) hardly a fair reflection of the race he ran at Newcastle.
Gents
If Ornais and Surface to Air had not been off course for so long and retained the form of 2008 both would be much higher in the weights and much shorter in the market.
I have had a small EW punt on both at silly odds in the hope that one will reproduce something like old form and run into a place. First five.
Gents
If Ornais and Surface to Air had not been off course for so long and retained the form of 2008 both would be much higher in the weights and much shorter in the market.
I have had a small EW punt on both at silly odds in the hope that one will reproduce something like old form and run into a place. First five.
But he’s only had 4 starts over fences… sure he can stay, but that’s a serious lack of experience which is put off even further by him not going over a fence in almost 3 years. If he made a reappearance over fences rather than hurdles then he’d be slightly more passable, but even Quinz the novice has more experience…
Ornais is an interesting one. Again slight lack of experience with only 8 starts over the bigger obstacles. There’s really nothing to suggest this one can’t play a decent part, but there’s nothing that really jumps off the page at me with him though. His jockey gets on with him well, so that’s a good plus.
- Total Posts 17716
How does a Gold Cup winning jockey not have a ride in the race?
Gingertipster,
Thanks.
Article published here http://wp.me/1o7dN
Look forward to your final verdict
Thanks again
Joe
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