Grand National 2011

[davidbrady]

Thanks

RP very misleading there

[peter .h]

Well with Notre Pere leaving; my shortlist is now an empty piece of paper. Now i am such between 12 horses.

My head says…

Backstage
Oscar Time
Big Fella Thanks
Silver By Nature
West End Rocker
Character Building
Northern Alliance
Killyglen

But my heart says…

Roll Along
Royal Rosa
Vic Venturi
Hello Bud
Our Monty

I can almost guarantee the winner is in that list of 8 where my head is, but i’m not a favourite backer, so i reckon i’ll be ignoring the likes of Backstage, Oscar Time and Big Fella Thanks. I’ll make an exception for Silver By Nature, because i do legitimately like that one and i may aswell back at least one fancied runner seeing as the 4 where my heart is are pretty much all 100/1+ shots excluding Venturi.

[Steeplechasing]

JSGN official elimination order 40 max – 39)ARBOR SUPREME, 40)OUR MONTY, 41)ROYAL ROSA, 42)SKIPPERS BRIG, 43)GOLDEN KITE, 44)ALWAYS WAINING.

Joe
http://wp.me/1o7dN

[vikingflagship]

not sure whether to follow my once used trends anymore, but the shortlist for me comes up with –

big fella thanks
ballabriggs
niche market
the midnight club
oscar time

outsider chances, not in top 10 of betting –

srbour supreme
west end rocker

i do like silver by nature, but being a grey is putting me off

vf

[Steeplechasing]

5 day acceptors in racecard layout

THE 2011 JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL
Class 1, Grade 3, £950,000 total Prize Fund. 4.15pm, Aintree, Saturday, April 9, 2011, four miles and four furlongs. For six-year-olds old and upwards which are allotted a rating of 110 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including February 13, 2011. Horses which are not qualified for a rating in Great Britain or Ireland at February 1, 2011, may also be entered. Such horses may be eligible for a weight providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse’s racecourse performances to February 13, 2011, would merit a minimum rating of 110. To qualify horses must have run at least three times in Steeple Chases run under the Rules of Racing of the same Recognised Turf Authority up to and including February 13, 2011. At the Handicapper’s discretion such horses may be allocated a rating. The decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final. No penalties after publication of the weights. Highest weight 11st 10lb. Entries closed February 1, entries revealed February 2 (102 entries, 3 subsequently scratched), weights revealed February 15, first scratchings deadline March 1 (82 remained), second scratchings deadline March 22 (74 remained). Five-day confirmation stage April 4 (65 five-day confirmations), final declaration stage 10.00am, April 7 – maximum field size of 40, plus 4 reserves. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Sunday, April 3. WITH CORRECT NUMBERING & ORDER OF ELIMINATION

Form Horse Age/Wgt Owner Trainer/Probable Jockey
1) P1-P000 DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 11-11-10 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Tony McCoy
2) 04-3226 TIDAL BAY (IRE) 10-11-09 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/Brian Hughes
3) 211-524 WHAT A FRIEND 8-11-06 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob
4) 1B-0044 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 11-11-06 Seamus Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE/Andrew Lynch
5) U62/1-31 MAJESTIC CONCORDE (IRE) 8-11-05 Dr Ronan Lambe Dermot Weld IRE/Robbie McNamara
6) 42F14 OR NOIR DE SOMOZA (FR) 9-11-05 Filsal Stadeg Racing David Pipe/Tom Scudamore
7) 1F24-41 DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 10-11-04 Jackie Mullins Willie Mullins IRE/Mr Patrick Mullins
14-2F44 BIG FELLA THANKS 9-11-01 Crossed Fingers Partnership Ferdy Murphy/Graham Lee
9) 205-244 THE TOTHER ONE (IRE) 10-11-00 Graham Roach Paul Nicholls/Mr Ryan Mahon
10) 111-112 BALLABRIGGS (IRE) 10-11-00 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain/Jason Maguire

11) 3133-21 THE MIDNIGHT CLUB (IRE) 10-10-13 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE/Ruby Walsh
12) 20P-F50 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 10-10-13 Graham Regan Paul Nicholls/Harry Skelton
13) 121-001 SILVER BY NATURE 9-10-12 Geoff Brown Lucinda Russell/Peter Buchanan
14) 0BP-500 BACKSTAGE (FR) 9-10-12 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE/Paul Carberry
15) 11-053F CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 11-10-12 Maurice Chapman Jimmy Moffatt/Paddy Aspell
16) 4-56242 CALGARY BAY (IRE) 8-10-10 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight/Hadden Frost
17) 2P-2536 KILLYGLEN (IRE) 9-10-10 David McCammon Stuart Crawford IRE/Robert Power
18) 152-263 OSCAR TIME (IRE) 10-10-09 Robert Waley-Cohen/Sir Martin & S Broughton Martin Lynch IRE/ Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
19) 10-1131 QUINZ (FR) 7-10-08 Andrew Cohen Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson
20) 500423 NORTHERN ALLIANCE (IRE) 10-10-08 Irish Rover Syndicate Tony Martin IRE/Barry Geraghty

21) 2212-42 BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (IRE) 8-10-08 Noel Glynn Noel Glynn IRE/Davy Russell
22) 000-06P COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 12-10-08 David Johnson David Pipe/Timmy Murphy
23) F-FF25P QUOLIBET (FR) 7-10-08 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Mark Walsh
24) 1FP10P GRAND SLAM HERO (IRE) 10-10-07 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nigel Twiston-Davies/Aidan Coleman
25) 6/454-P6 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 11-10-07 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Nigel Twiston-Davies/????
26) 0/144/P3- STATE OF PLAY 11-10-06 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams/Paul Moloney
27) 11-11P5 KING FONTAINE (IRE) 8-10-06 Trevor Hemmings Malcolm Jefferson/Denis O’Regan
28) U-3431U IN COMPLIANCE (IRE) 11-10-05 Westerly Breeze Syndicate Dessie Hughes IRE/Leighton Aspell
29) 005P-1P HELLO BUD (IRE) 13-10-05 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies
30) P/00-11P WEST END ROCKER (IRE) 9-10-05 Barry Winfield & Tim Leadbeater Alan King/Robert Thornton

31) 200010 SANTA’S SON (IRE) 11-10-05 Douglas Pryde & Jim Beaumont Howard Johnson/Jamie Moore
32) C21-046 BLUESEA CRACKER (IRE) 9-10-04 J P McManus James Motherway IRE/Andrew McNamara
33) 01050 THAT’S RHYTHM (FR) 11-10-04 Don’t Tell Henry Martin Todhunter/James Reveley
34) P2/111/-0 SURFACE TO AIR 10-10-04 Tim Urry Chris Bealby/Tom Messenger
35) P-234PP PIRAYA (FR) 8-10-04 Terry Neill David Pipe/Johnny Farrelly
36) 6F-0P5P CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 9-10-04 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill/Richie McLernon
37) 0-30563 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 11-10-04 Patricia Thompson John Quinn/Miss Nina Carberry
38) 15/1P/-52 ORNAIS (FR) 9-10-04 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls/Nick Scholfield
39) U2U-0P2 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 9-10-03 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE/David Casey
40) 013111- OUR MONTY (IRE) 8-10-03 Colland Sand & Gravel Ltd Willie Mullins IRE/Ms Katie Walsh

41) P5U-42P ROYAL ROSA (FR) 12-10-03 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/Paul Gallagher
42) 313-011 SKIPPERS BRIG (IRE) 10-10-02 Ashleybank Investments Limited Nicky Richards/Dominic Elsworth
43) 210010 GOLDEN KITE (IRE) 9-10-02 Dr Anthony Calnan Adrian Maguire IRE/Shane Hassett
44) 006004 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 10-10-02 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen/???
45) 321112 PUTNEY BRIDGE 9-10-01 Louise Goldsworthy Keith Goldsworthy/???
46) 4/22-1PP BELON GALE (IRE) 8-10-01 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson/???
47) 402P-02 FAASEL (IRE) 10-10-01 Jim Ennis David Pipe/???
48) 02043P LE BEAU BAI (FR) 8-10-01 Glass Half Full Richard Lee/???
49) D61-0F0 MERIGO (FR) 10-10-01 Raymond & Anita Anderson Green Andrew Parker/???
50) 6-02162 ASKTHEMASTER (IRE) 11-10-00 Carrolle Wall Robert Tyner IRE/???

51) 11P61/0/- STARZAAN (IRE) 12-10-00 Ben Arbib Hughie Morrison/???
52) 123-P22 GILES CROSS (IRE) 9-10-00 KCMS Partnership Victor Dartnall/???
53) 1U0-660 SADDLERS STORM (IRE) 9-10-00 Billy Moffett/R T & J McLoughlin Tony Martin IRE/???
54) 1-PP11P SAGALYRIQUE (FR) 7-9-13 Sir Robert Ogden Donald McCain/???
55) U0-6042 AMBOBO (USA) 11-9-13 Deirdre Brassil Martin Brassil IRE/???
56) 241P64 DUERS (IRE) 9-9-13 Kate Kelly/Kate Ronan Paul Magnier IRE/???
57) 11120-P TOBY JUG 10-9-13 Paul & Caron Chapman & Sarah Humphrey Sarah Humphrey/???
58) 131-321 JUNIOR 8-9-12 Middleham Park Racing LI David Pipe/???
59) 064260 THE SAWYER (BEL) 11-9-12 David Fear Bob Buckler/???
60) 2613-PP GALANT NUIT (FR) 7-9-12 David Parry Ferdy Murphy/???

61) 044522 BALLYFITZ 11-9-09 Fred & Wayne Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies/???
62) F4-5365 POMME TIEPY (FR) 8-9-09 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE/???
63) 24U344 I’MONCLOUDNINE (IRE) 8-9-09 Fred Matthews Neil Mulholland/???
64) 116PP-P TREACLE (IRE) 10-9-04 Bjorn Nielsen Tom Taaffe IRE/???
65) P23221 REGAL HEIGHTS (IRE) 10-9-02 Janet Heler Tom George/???

The order of elimination was decided this afternoon by Phil Smith, Head of Handicapping at the British Horseracing Authority.

The declared runners will be known on Thursday morning and there will be four reserves which have to be utilised by Friday morning.

65 five-day confirmations 20 Irish-trained

The nine horses who did not go forward at today’s five-day stage were Midnight Chase, Synchronised, Scotsirish, Notre Pere, Ballytrim, Nedzer’s Return, Frankie Figg, One Cool Cookie and Dev.

Joe
http://wp.me/1o7dN

[vikingflagship]

ive already posted this in my thread grand national weights

vf

[vikingflagship]

https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 85300.html

vf

[Steeplechasing]

Sorry VF, I should have been sensible and looked there

[EmmyK]

Arbour Supreme’s in chuffed.

Looks pretty open, don’t think i could have any NTD horse though, yard seems very out of sorts.

[moehat]

Yes; I’m pleased to see Arbor Supreme get in..strange how he has been ignored having got such close form lines with Oscar Time and The Midnight Club. Always wary of Supreme Leaders’ jumping but can’t ignore him off that weight. Seems to have been around forever but in fact is just coming into his prime as a staying chaser. I’ve topped up my bet on In Compliance today [watch him pull out now]. Dessie Hughes knows how to prepare a horse for this race, and he was top class in his younger days. Had a good prep [apart from unseating last time out, which is out of character for him as he’s only had a couple of UR’s in his career]. Has got round the fences [another thing Dessie seems to do with his horses] and he’s one of the few Old Vics in the race

. Never won over 3 but has got a staying pedigree. I ignored Don’t Push It’s pedigree last year, still thinking that he was a 2 miler

. There are very few horses in the race that you could definately draw a line through, but at least it’s good that none of them have stopped Arbor from getting a run. Can’t imagine Ruby picking the wrong horse when he’s got a choice of so many, so you’d have to be scared of The Midnight Club. I’d hate to see the National becoming a race won by the favourite every year, though.

[Gingertipster]

My Preview:

4:15 John Smith´s Grand National 4m4f

1.

1-P070

Don’t Push It

(23 days) 11 11-10 (CD) Jonjo O’Neil official mark 160
Now on 7 lbs higher mark for 5 length 2010 success (153), from Black Appalachi, State Of Play 10-11 well beaten 3rd. Trainer in excellent form at the time. Don’t Push It goes in to race in better form than last year. 10th of 23 Pertemps (3m) Hurdle, outpaced before staying on. Often made mistakes and inconsistent over conventional fences, yet took well to Aintree. Fact no top weight has won since Red Rum is a coincidence. If both first 11-5 and second 11-6 had carried top weight of 11-10 last year; 20 lengths back to third suggests they’d still finish 1st and 2nd. Top weights have a good strike rate of placing. Ground was good last year, probably equally effective on soft. A P McCoy

2.

4-3226

Tidal Bay

(22 days) 10 11-9 Howard Johnson 159
6th in Gold Cup is fair form, but again looked irresolute. Dropping himself out before staying on passed beaten rivals. Flattered second to Imperial Commander in Betfair Chase, out the back when winning rider went for home in earnest a long way from home. Tidal Bay is temperamental and unlikely to take to Aintree. Not sure to stay the trip, but laziness will help in that respect. B Hughes

3.

U-7744

Vic Venturi

(23 days) 11 11-6 (C) Dessie Hughes (Irish trained) 156
12 lengths behind The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo (3 m) Chase last time. Under sustained pressure some way out and outpaced. Won 2009 Becher Chase (3m2f), but failed all three attempts at 3m5f+, twice in Irish National. Out of contention when unseated Grand National. Looks Exposed. A Lynch

4.

11-524

What A Friend

(22 days) 8 11-6 Paul Nicholls 156
Well-handicapped. 4th in Gold Cup under Saturday’s rider Darryl Jacob, showing more enthusiasm than usual in first time blinkers. Threw away winning chance in AON chase time before, found little and hung in behind winner. Won twice at this meeting. Doubts remain if headgear will work second time and/or if he’ll take to these unique fences. Needs holding up until the last moment. D Jacob

5.

2/1-31

Majestic Concorde

(101 days) 8 11-5 Dermott Weld (Irish) 155
Jumped well when winning Paddy Power Chase (good) at Leopardstown (Dec 29th) on his first try at 3 miles, unraced since but runs well fresh. Pace wasn’t good there and won through speed. Though judged by his flat career, 4th in Chester Cup, has plenty of stamina. Probably equally effective on soft and good going. Lightly raced and could improve again. Mr R McNamara

6.

42F14

Or Noir De Somoza

(132 days) 9 11-5 David Pipe 155
Ex-French. Off 8 months prior to only previous run for Pipe yard, at inadequate trip of 2m1f. 22 lengths 4th of 5 to Master Minded in 09 Victor Chandler. Better than that. Won Grade 2 Prix Georges in 09 (2m6f); 4th of 9 (trained by C Avert) to top French horse Rubi Ball in same race last time. Won listed chase penultimate start. Raced almost exclusively on a soft surface. 3m+ form figures read F97F. Sire produced stayer Poker De Sivola, but dam won hurdle at only 1m7f. T Scudamore

7.

F24-41

Dooneys Gate

(65 days) 10 11-4 Willie Mullins (Irish) 154
Won Kilcash Chase (2 ½m) Clonmel, made most under trainer’s son last time out. Ran well, mistake 3 out over these fences in Topham Chase to be 4th off 9 lbs lower mark than Saturday (improved since). Stays 3 miles, but unlikely to get 4 ½. Effective on good and heavy ground. Mr P W Mullins

8.

-2F44

Big Fella Thanks

(35 days) 9 11-1 Ferdy Murphy 151
In truth never run to his best when going in to two Grand Nationals a well-handicapped horse. Stamina doubts remain. Now off 5 lbs higher mark than when 4th as favourite last term (146), after improved run in Greatwood at Newbury. Fair 4th in same race off 149 last time. Poor finisher, often cruising over final fence only to find little. Jumping not yet as good for new yard this season. G Lee

9.

05-244

The Tother One

(70 days) 10 11-0 Paul Nicholls 150
Well-handicapped on 4th in Hennessey Gold Cup off a mark 6 lbs higher than on Saturday. Trip should not be a problem. However, is a poor jumper, inconsistent, temperamental and with a poor strike rate since novice hurdle days. Highly unlikely to take to this test. Mr R Mahon

10.

11-112

Ballabriggs

(35 days) 10 11-0 Donald McCain 150
On short-list since winning Fulke Walwyn at Cheltenham Festival in 2010, upped 10 lbs for that. In clear lead over the last before tied up badly, just got home (3m1½f). Value more than winning distances. Again found less than expected when beaten at Kelso last time (2¾m). Has a good win to run ratio and usually jumps well. Trained by son of Ginger McCain of Red Rum fame. J Maguire

11.

133-21

The Midnight Club

(45 days) 10 10-13 Willie Mullins (Irish) 149
On pure form not especially well-handicapped. However, breeding and style of running suggest he’s capable of considerably better over further. Never nearer 3rd in both Spa Hurdle (3m) and Jewson Handicap (2m5f) at Cheltenham Festival. Outpaced before staying on best of all each occasion. By Flemensfirth, sire of Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert, King John’s Castle (2nd in National). Out of 3 mile winner from family of Toby Tobias. Unlucky 2nd Thyestes Chase, then won Bobbyjo (3m). Travelled and jumped well, idled run-in and better than distances indicate. Stable mate Arbor Supreme now 10 lbs better off for just length beating. Equally effective on soft and good. R Walsh

12.

9P-F58

Niche Market

(35 days) 10 10-13 Paul Nicholls 149
Ideal Grand National type. Won 09 Irish National (3m5f) under H Skelton. Trained by Bob Buckler prior to this season. Dropped 7 lbs since placed for second time in Hennessey Gold Cup. 5th off 156, 3rd off 148 in 09. Despite reappearance fall usually jumps well, best on good or good-soft ground. Disappointed in Grand National when then trainer out of form and hold up tactics used; usually races prominently. Had wind operation prior to last run and trainer has excellent record with such horses. 8th in Greatwood Chase last time came over wholly inadequate trip of 2 ½ miles. H Skelton

13.

21-071

Silver By Nature

(49 days) 9 10-12 Lucinda Russell 148
Well-handicapped. Easy 15 length winner of Haydock National Trial (3½ miles, soft), off 1 lb higher mark (149). Runner-up Ballyfitz franked form with 2nd in Midlands National. Slightly rounded action and form indicate preference for a soft surface. However, trainer’s other half Peter Scudamore believes it’s just a need for a test. Sire Silver Patriarch won St Leger (good-firm) and grand dam Dalkey Sound 2nd Scottish National (good). Every chance more to come at 4½m. Jumps well. Seeks to be first grey and Scottish winner since Nicholas Silver and Rubstic. P Buchannan

14.

57011

Backstage

(34 days, point) 9 10-12 Gordon Elliott (Irish) 148
Well backed for this after small Point to point win in Ireland. Trained by up and coming and 07 (Silver Birch) National winning trainer. Connections believe best on sound surface. Encouragingly, travelled well in Grand National before brought down 20th fence last year (same mark as Saturday). 3m1f winner. Dam more a speed influence and not certain to get significantly further. P Carberry

15.

1-753F

Chief Dan George

(25 days) 11 10-12 James Moffatt 148
6 lbs higher mark than when winning 2010 William Hill (Spinal Research) Handicap Chase (3m½f good); fell in this year’s race. Not looked in same form so far this season. Inconsistent profile, but possibly best in the Spring nowadays. Only 4 lbs better off with Ballabriggs for 8 length beating at Kelso. 5th in 2009 Scottish Grand National (4m) implies he’ll stay this trip. P Aspell

16.

56242

Calgary Bay

(70 days) 8 10-10 Henrietta Knight 146
One of best looking horses in training. Good 2nd to Wishfull Thinking (2m5f good-soft) off 143 last time. Jumped well but found little. Best performance to win Doncaster handicap (3m good-firm) by 7 lengths off 142. Unlikely stayer, took hold and didn’t get home 2010 Gold Cup (3m2½f). H Frost

17.

P-2536

Killyglen

(35 days) 9 10-10 Stuart Crawford (Irish) 146
Ex-English top novice for Howard Johnson, won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree (3m1f good-soft). Also ran well to be 2nd to Wogan in 2010 Grimthorpe (3m2f good-firm). Well-handicapped on that form. Changed stables and yet to prove as good; bit free in same race, weakened in straight last time, 6th of 8 finishers. Possibly needs to lead / view of the front to jump fences well and maintain enthusiasm. Inconsistent. Best runs on good-firm to good-soft. D O’Regan

18.

52-263

Oscar Time

(45 days) 10 10-9 Martin Lynch (Irish) 145
First race for 7 weeks, travelled well long way, 3rd to The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo. Now 4 lbs better off for 5 length beating. Fitness possibly played a part but often finds little. No need for pressure to win Irish Paddy Power (3m). Upped 17 lbs, looked Irish National (3m5f) winner on turn for home. Length down at last yet lost another 3½ on short run-in. Plenty of stamina in dam’s pedigree, however most of sire Oscar’s progeny don’t need a test. Oscar Time is certainly not crying out for a trip. Raced mainly on a soft surface. Jumps well. Jockey trying two feats, first winning amateur since Marcus Armytage on Mr Frisk and Gold Cup / National double. Mr S Whaley-Cohen

19.

0-1131

Quinz

(42 days) 7 10-8 Philip Hobbs 144
Racing Post Chase winner (3m soft), looked beaten as Mount Oscar came upsides, fought back and going away again at line. Progressive and well-handicapped if form can be believed, almost every other runner error prone. 7 year old but French breds mature quicker. More experience than most novices, mistakes all three chase starts last season. Only loss this term behind Time For Rupert. Jumps far better nowadays, possibly needs to race prominently to continue to do so. Winner on good-firm and soft. Should get further than 3m but another 1½m is questionable. R Johnson

20.

508423

Northern Alliance

(44 days) 10 10-8 Tony Martin (Irish) 144
Trainer had excellent record in major handicaps, but the Handicapper rarely takes chances with his runners nowadays. Dropped just 3 lbs since 8th of 12 finishers in Paddy Power (2m5f Good) in December. Last win in 09 Kerry National (3m Good-soft). Well below form last time, 19 lengths behind In Compliance. Raced from 2 to 3 miles, unlikely stayer. B Geraghty

21.

212-42

Becauseicouldntsee

(101 days) 8 10-8 Noel Glynn (Irish) 144
Not seen since late December. Now 2lbs better off with Majestic Concorde for a 2½ length beating when second in Irish Paddy Power (3m soft). Just one mistake of note in National Hunt Chase (4m Good) at Cheltenham as a novice last year. Every reason to believe will be better than ever returned to an extreme trip and is built for Aintree. Lively outsider. D Russell

22.

00-06P

Comply Or Die

(42 days) 12 10-8 (CD) David Pipe 144
2008 Winner and runner up in 2009. Nowhere near that form, 12th of 14 finishers off a mark of 153 in 2010. Obviously trained for this, but no real promise in three starts this term. Pulled up in almost unraceable ground in Eider Chase last time. Best blinkered, on good or good-soft. Likes to race prominently / have some room. Veteran and probably on the downgrade. T Murphy

23.

FF25P

Quolibet

(25 days) 7 10-8 Jonjo O’Neil 144
50/1 pulled up only British start in Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham last time. 5th penultimate start, trained by Francois Doumen; 6 lbs better off for just 2 lengths behind Or Noir De Somoza in (2¾m heavy). Poor strike rate, unproven over further and had three falls in a row. M P Walsh

24.

1FP18P

Grand Slam Hero

(63 days) 10 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 143
Fruitful summer campaign, won all four completed starts including Summer Plate. Still looked on upgrade after final success (August, 3m1½f). Now off 5 lbs higher mark. Never jumping with any fluency in two well spaced out races since. Possibly something physically wrong. A Coleman

25.

454-P6

Roll Along

(49 days) 11 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 143
Thrown in on best form of 2008 /09. Won at Ascot (3m good) and 24 lengths 6th to Kauto Star in Gold Cup (good-soft). Nowhere near as good since. Travelled well before weakening badly straight (3m) last time out off same mark as Saturday. Looks increasingly temperamental. W Hutchinson

26.

44/P3-

State Of Play

(364 days) 11 10-6 Evan Williams 142
Placed in two Grand Nationals, not seen since but great record fresh. Dropped 3 lbs for finishing 3rd he might seem well treated. However, 4th off a mark of 150, then 3rd from 145; and now only 10 lbs better off with Don’t Push It for 25 length beating. Trainer considers him best on a sound surface although won 2006 Hennessey on softish ground. Probably only place prospects again. P Maloney

27.

1-11P5

King Fontaine

(25 days) 8 10-6 Malcom Jefferson 142
Several jumping errors last two starts. Only 5th off 2 lbs better mark in Spinal Research Chase, 32 lengths behind winner Bensalem. Pulled up in another big field (3½m). Not many sired by King’s Theatre are true stayers. Upped 13 lbs since last win. Proven on heavy and good going. D O’Regan

28.

341U

In Compliance

(20 days) 11 10-5 Dessie Hughes (Irish) 141
By Old Vic, sire of first two home in 2010 and dam’s sire Montelimar responsible for Hedgehunter. However, weakened late over furthest he’s tackled so far, 3m1f, in 2007 Punchestown Gold Cup (best season to race). Well fancied for 2007 Gold Cup before injury. On downgrade. Unseated last time, not first mistake. First time blinkered, easy lead to win penultimate start (2m2f soft). L Aspell

29.

75P-1P

Hello Bud

(84 days) 13 10-5 (C) Nigel Twiston-Davies 141
Age statistics are against him, but unlike most teenagers was still improving at 11, so age is not as big a worry. Won 09 Scottish National (4m Good-firm) off 133. Successful again off same mark in Becher Chase (3¼m Heavy) in November. Looked weak race for the money and 8 lb rise bit harsh. 5th in Grand National, off just 1 lb lower (140) than Saturday. Pulled up in Classic Chase last time out. Races up with pace and sometimes finds less than expected off the bridle. S Twiston-Davies

30.

07-11P

West End Rocker

(49 days) 9 10-5 Alan King 141
Acted on soft to win Classic Chase at Warwick (3m5f). Upped 8 lbs for ¾ length victory over Minella Boys with 8 back to Incentivise, idled and more in hand than distances indicate. Has action which suggests will be at least as good on a sound surface. Possibly lost action and quickly pulled up on heavy last time out. Lightly raced stayer, lively outsider if all is well with him. R Thornton

31.

207710

Santa’s Son

(22 days) 11 10-5 Howard Johnson 141
Appeared back to some form with this trainer, won 2½m hurdle penultimate start. Possibly amiss, 100/1 16th of 18 in Grand Annual (2m½f) last time. Often sulks if unable to lead. Won on soft and firm surface. No win in 7 attempts at 3m+ earlier in career, unraced at trip since 2007. J Moore

32.

21-046

Bluesea Cracker

(45 days) 9 10-4 James Motherway (Irish) 140
Trying to become first of her sex to win since Nickel Coin in 1951. Recently purchased by JP McManus. Off 13 weeks prior to last of 6 finishers final start. Every chance before turn and heavily eased after chance had gone in Bobbyjo (3m). Fair 4th at Cheltenham in November (3m3f½f good-soft) penultimate start. Improved form, won Irish National last season (3m5f heavy), finding much more than runner-up Oscar Time who is 5 lbs better off for 4½ lengths. Stayers on both sides of pedigree, including Grand National runner-up (to Grittar) Hard Outlook. Could improve further back up in trip. Raced almost exclusively on a soft surface. A McNamara

33.

391059

That’s Rhythm

(120 days) 11 10-4 Martin Todhunter 140
In and out of form. Disappointing 9th in December, possible physical problem. Fair 14 lengths 5th in Charlie Hall penultimate start. Bangor specialist, all 3 wins there, latest by 9 lengths off 133 3m½f good-soft. Also effective firm surface. Fallen in last two Scottish Nationals.

34.

2111/0

Surface To Air

(27 days) 10 10-4 Chris Bealby 140
Progressive form before reportedly suffered a tendon injury when winning 4 mile Summer National in June 08 (third win in succession). First run since then, last of 10 in handicap hurdle at Market Rasen. Impossible to know if he’s still got any ability. Form on good and good-soft. T Messenger

35.

234PP

Piraya

(23 days) 8 10-4 David Pipe 140
Back to his recalcitrant days, pulled up in Byrne Group Handicap last time out. Good placed efforts earlier in season, 2nd to Woolcombe Folly at 2m1f and 3rd to Mount Oscar at 2½ miles. Yet to run to form at 3 miles plus in Britain, despite many tries. 13th of 14 finishers in Grand National. J Farrelly

36.

F-8P5P

Can’t Buy Time

(23 days) 9 10-4 Jonjo O’Neil 140
Lightly raced. Bad mistake and pulled up last time out in Fulke Walwyn. Best start this term when 6¼ lengths 5th off 142 to Tartak in 2m5f handicap at Cheltenham in January. Winner of same race off 141 in 2010. Unseated and fell in two Grand Nationals. Travelled well long way, failed to stay when favourite, 4th in 09 National Hunt Chase. Winner on soft and good. Inconsistent. R McLernon

37.

30563

Character Building

(35 days) 11 10-4 John Quinn 140
Balls of steel needed, won 09 Fulke Walwyn (3m1½f good-soft) off 139, led on line. Pulls himself up in front and inconsistent. 7th (off 145) in Grand National, made up a lot of places on final circuit and now off 5 lb lower mark. 12 lbs better off with Don’t Push It for 36 lengths. Fair 14 length 3rd off 135 last time (3m2f good). Should be suited by a return to further. Could we have a real National Velvet in the year of Elizabeth Taylor’s death? Ms Nina Carberry

38.

51P/52

Ornais

(36 days) 9 10-4 Paul Nicholls 140
Good novice in 07/08, difficult to know how much ability retains. Nowhere near best in 2 hunter chases on first starts for 2 years, latest at Newbury (2m6½f). Runs with a low head carriage (long neck). Stamina doubts, only 5th when had form to win 4 mile 08 National Hunt Chase. N Scholfield

39.

2U-9P2

Arbor Supreme

(45 days) 9 10-3 Willie Mullins (Irish) 139
Well-handicapped. Length 2nd to The Midnight Club in Bobbyjo Chase. Oscar Time 4 lengths, Vic Venturi 7, and Bluesea Cracker 20 lengths back. Yet is respectively 10, 6, 12 and 1 lb better off with all of them. Rider cajoled an effort out of Arbor Supreme, never going for “everything”. Seemed less than willing in the past, best handled tenderly. Did not take to Aintree last year, already beaten when unseating at the Chair. Inconsistent. Stays at least 3¾ miles, acts on good and heavy. D Casey

40.

13111-

Our Monty

(510 days) 8 10-3 Willie Mullins (Irish) 139
Progressive young chaser when last seen in November 09. Last win in slowly run Cork “Grand National” (3½m heavy) in effortless style by 5½ lengths. Also successful on firm surface. Well (flat) bred, by Monjeu out of Cambridgeshire (1m1½f) winner She’s Our Mare, who’s by St Leger victor Commanche Run. Our Monty is not sure to stay 4½m. Ruby Walsh’s sister rides. Ms Katy Walsh

—————————–

41.

5U-42P

Royal Rosa

(91 days) 12 10-3 Howard Johnson 139
Lightly raced, poorly handicapped veteran. Pulled up as if something troubling him last time in Welsh National. Placed for second time in Becher (3¼m), 1¼ lengths 2nd. Strangely now 3 lbs worse off with winner Hello Bud, off just 125. Unseated in Grand National. 33 lengths 6th from 18 lbs out of weights in 08 Scottish National. Possibly best on soft surface. Inconsistent. P Gallagher

42.

13-3011

Skippers Brig

(35 days) 10 10-2 Nicky Richards 138.
Upset one of the ante-post Grand National favourites, and now 8 lbs better off with Ballabriggs after beating him 1¾ lengths at Kelso (2¾m good-soft) last time. Obviously 4½m is a different proposition, but Skippers Brig is proven at a stiff 3 miles and bred to get further. Sire Zaffaran a stayer, dam unraced half sister to 3m1f winner Skippers Cleuch and dam’s sire Roselier a massive stamina influence. Skippers Brigg is lightly raced and capable of improvement. Possibly needs it on the soft side and unbeaten on heavy. Interesting outsider if getting a run. D Elsworth

43.

1d10019

Golden Kite

(27 days) 9 10-2 Adrian Maguire 138
Prolific winner of 7 of his last 14 starts. Improved to win Munster “National” (only 3m, good) penultimate start, making all off 128. First start since when disappointing 9th of 14 finishers (2m7f heavy) over hurdles on March 13th, should come on for the run. Already outstayed pedigree, By Anshan out of a mare by Strong Gale. Best on goodish ground. S Hassett

44.

006704

Always Waining

(16 days) 10 10-2 (C) Peter Bowen 138
17 lengths 4th (3m good) over hurdles last time, March 24th. 2010 Topham winner (2m5½f Good) off a 10 lb lower mark (128). Now 12 lbs worse off with 2nd Scotsirish for 12 lengths. 4th in same race in 09 and 6th off 137 in Grand Sefton (heavy) this season. Would have finished closer but for one bad mistake. All 3 races over National fences. Winner at 3m1f, failed both starts at 4m+. T O’Brien

Verdict After final decs.

Value Is Everything

[Zarkava]

Ginger, utterly superb preview.

Think you’re being very harsh however on Vic Venturi. By no means was he beaten last year when unseated (effectively brought down by a faller just like Backstage) & I have no doubt he’ll be bang there 3 out on Saturday.

Also think you’re being harsh on Comply or Die. Ran a huge race last time out in unraceable ground. Watched a video of his win earlier and he was so impressive. Cantering 2 out and just idled in front.

[Steeplechasing]

Gingertipster,

That’s the best National preview I’ve ever read outside of the trade papers – and it beats most of those too. Thanks for putting in all the work it must have taken.

Have you a blog/website?

Joe
http://wp.me/1o7dN

[GDC]

Ginger: What an awesome post, brilliantly written and great comments.

I am sitting with fingers crossed as i have 3 ante post bets in and one needing 2 to come out to run. Yet again it looks like we have an outstanding race to savour.

Thanks

[nulty]

Surface to Air

off for nearly 3 years since winning the Summer National as a 7yo and was hugely progressive until then. Made a hurdling reappearance at Market Rasen in March and Tom Messenger was easy on him for obvious reasons. Travelled well but weakened and not asked for anything except to plug on to raise fitness. Its impossible to say (and rather unlikely) that he’s back to his best. You know what they say "They never come back". However, it wasn’t just one injury that kept him out. He’s had numerous setbacks and it looks like they’ve had a clear run with him for at least 10 months having planned this path. Chris Bealby has a very good record of winning with chasers who have 0 or 1 race in the last 12 months (1 run = 3 wins from 5 [+36 LSP], 0 runs = 3/16 [+32 LSP]) and this horse has been given a chance by the handicapper dropped 7lbs from the mark he got when winning the Summer National.

66/1 NRNB (140BF), is it that insane to think he can run a decent race?

[doublethetrouble]

GINGER.thanks for that. that’s more than helpfull for me

[WalkerTrader]

GT

Brilliant post.

[Author]

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