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Gullible Gordon
‘s only chance of winning the National would be if they held it as a time trial! He simply cannot deal with jumping among other horses.
Where do you get that idea from Rory? He was warming up just nicely before he was brought down by colliding with Irish Raptor,Gullible Gordon is still only 7yo and improving,if he gets an entry he looks like the type to take to it just fine! You surprise me!
Both impressive chasing wins achieved when never challenged
and jumping well, but has made serious errors on the occasions when he hasn’t had the luxury of an undisputed lead."rory":2eg5lvjv wrote:
Both impressive chasing wins achieved when never challenged
and jumping well, but has made serious errors on the occasions when he hasn’t had the luxury of an undisputed lead.Bit like
Desert Orchid
eh? I will watch him a bit more carefully just to see if you have a valid point! I suppose he could try and make all in the National….
If the Grand National is unsafe for Denman, it is unsafe for every horse.
Dissagree strongly m"lud! I would bet money any horse asked to lug 11-10 round Aintree is going to feel the consequences far more than a horse carrying 10 stone,he"s not carrying it over park fences for 3 miles but the toughest stamina sapping sort for 41/2m and you dont need to be a Mathematician to know that!
Have you any statistics to back that up TAPK?
The Grand National is a handicap, with better horses carrying more weight than inferior ones; to make every horse have the same chance. Therefore, every horse should be equally as tired come the finish. As long as they are built for carrying weight, like Denman.
Only in very soft ground does weight have more of an effect on top weights.
Let’s say Denman takes on class 5 handicappers in a 4m4f race. Denman carries 11-12, All others on 10-0 carrying loads of overweight. Is Denman likely to have an a harder or easier race than his rivals? Denman wins in a canter.
It is how well handicapped that makes the difference as to how hard a race a horse gets. One could say if Denman takes on a top form Kauto Star and Imperial Commander at Cheltenham, all carrying 11-12; he will in effect be poorly handicapped. If Denman runs in the Grand National the handicapper will ensure he is well handicapped. So compared to some other horses in the race is less likely to get a hard race. Athough of course any race over those fences at 4 1/2 miles is harder on
all horses
than 3m2f110y at Cheltenham.
Value Is EverythingRory is right about Gullible Gordon TAPK. If GG wants to win the National he will either need to lead, or get somewhere on the outer with an unrestricted view. Trouble with the National is there are vanity runners, with no chance of staying the trip; who get out the front. In effect hampering the chances of those who need to front run. Although a prominent position is generally the place to be.
Value Is EverythingIf the Grand National is unsafe for Denman, it is unsafe for every horse.
Dissagree strongly m"lud! I would bet money any horse asked to lug 11-10 round Aintree is going to feel the consequences far more than a horse carrying 10 stone,he"s not carrying it over park fences for 3 miles but the toughest stamina sapping sort for 41/2m and you dont need to be a Mathematician to know that!
Have you any statistics to back that up TAPK?
The Grand National is a handicap, with better horses carrying more weight than inferior ones; to make every horse have the same chance. Therefore, every horse should be equally as tired come the finish.
Ginge if you honestly believe that then you are taking your Maths a bit too far! We are talking about the Grand National here a unique race that you could actually handicap horses just for that race alone,some take to it others blatantly dont! A horse carrying 10 stone who should be thrown in can finish knackered in the National,the same horse carrying 11-10 would be pulled up at best,you only need to make a couple of mistakes over those fences and the horse will suffer! My arguement is horses carrying big weights will suffer more than those carrying lighter weights and if you look back over the past 25 yrs,how many National winners have carried over 11 stone never mind about top weight compared to those carrying 10 stone something? 90% i would say in favour of the under 11 stone brigade! I rest my case m"lud! take him down!
Rory is right about Gullible Gordon TAPK. If GG wants to win the National he will either need to lead, or get somewhere on the outer with an unrestricted view.
So why was he running such a promising race over the course when he was never near the front,he was just moving into contention,4th i recall when he came to grief?
- Total Posts 17716
If the Grand National is unsafe for Denman, it is unsafe for every horse.
Yes but everyhorse is not Denman, they cost on average about £3-5k and have flopped at all the decent national hunt trips and the Grand National is a race for the useless who have no previous noteable wins, 40 horses just thrashing their way around untill the last one survives a bit like last man standing and it’s cruel to see them in that physical state at the end.
Denmans won over £1m in prize money, no way shuold he be mixing with the likes of 2-3k horses that haven’t done nothing in their career, they don’t deserve to be in the same ring with him.
Don’t Push It – cost £2k
I agree with everything Mr Wilson says.
Anyway, Denman could never give weight to my fancy, Flaming Troll.
Mike
Yes but everyhorse is not Denman, they cost on average about £3-5k and have flopped at all the decent national hunt trips and the Grand National is a race for the useless who have no previous noteable wins…
Cheltenham Gold Cup winners have won the race – though few have actually contested it. L’Escargot and Golden Miller weren’t exactly useless.
Although I called it an annual free for all, it has maintained its status as the most popular and most anticipated event in the British racing calendar – spectator wise and betting wise.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
^^Not forgetting Garrison Savannah, who completed the Sun Alliance / Gold Cup double in 1990 / 91 before being so cruelly caught by Seagram on the run-in just a few weeks after his finest hour.
Out of curiosity, who was the last Gold Cup winner to run in the National?
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I was thrilled to bits to read this, I’d hoped with Findlay out of the picture Barber would say no. Denman has never looked a National horse to me.
It’s nothing to do with "unsafe", it’s about the individual nature of the horses. Personally I don’t think his style of jumping or running would get him far round the National course and he looked tired enough on Saturday.
Ginge if you honestly believe that then you are taking your Maths a bit too far! We are talking about the Grand National here a unique race that you could actually handicap horses just for that race alone,some take to it others blatantly dont! A horse carrying 10 stone who should be thrown in can finish knackered in the National,the same horse carrying 11-10 would be pulled up at best,you only need to make a couple of mistakes over those fences and the horse will suffer! My arguement is horses carrying big weights will suffer more than those carrying lighter weights and if you look back over the past 25 yrs,how many National winners have carried over 11 stone never mind about top weight compared to those carrying 10 stone something? 90% i would say in favour of the under 11 stone brigade! I rest my case m"lud! take him down!
You’d think higher weights do not do as well as lower weights in the Grand National. It is true that lower weights have won and placed more times. But is this statistic fair?
Don’t think I included last year’s running in these statistics, but…
In the last 25 years (24 Nationals) there’s been:933 runners
782 carried less than 11 stones (83.82% of all runners)
151 carried 11 stones or more (16.18% of all runners)In 1997 only 1 horse (Master Oats) of the 36 runners carried 11stones or more.
In 85 (including Corbiere 3rd), 89 (The Thinker 3rd) only 2 horses of 40 carried 11 stones or more, in 90 only 2 of 38.
In 88 (including Rhyme And Reason 1st and West Tip 4th) 3 of 40, In 1994 it was 3 of 36, in 98 (Sunny Bay 2nd) 3 of 37 and 99 only 3 of 32 carried 11 stones or more.In 24 runnings:
74 of 96 placed horses carried less than 11 stones (77.08% of all placed horses)
22 of 96 placed horses carried more than 11 stones (22.92% of all placed horse)
However:
74 out of 782 means only 9.46% of those carrying less than 11 stones were placed
22 out of 151 means 14.57% of those carrying more than 11 stones were placedTherefore, those carrying more than 11 stones in fact have a better strike rate for being placed than those carrying less than 11 stones.
Much is made of no top weight winning for ages.
Yet in 1986, 87, 91 and 94 an automatic top weight took part from places like Czechoslovakia; at odds of at least 100/1 and up to 500/1. Hardly surprising they did not win.
If adding up all the SP’s percentages of top weights e.g. 5.9 for 16/1 + 10 for 9/1 etc. (including 2 horses if dual top weights). It comes to 146.35 ‘/, 24 races = 6.09 for an average SP of between 15/1 and 16/1. Those are bookmakers prices with mark ups, so the true odds can be estimated as something like 20/1. Therefore it is hardly surprising no top weight has won for ages.
Looking at top weights where betting suggested they had a chance of winning:
Corbiere 11-10 in 1985 at 9/1 3rd
West Tip 11-7 in 87 at 11/1 4th
The Thinker 11-10 in 89 at 10/1 3rd
Sunny Bay 12-0 in 98 at 12/1 2nd
Monty’s Pass 11-12 in 04 at 20/1 4th
Hedgehunter 11-12 in 06 at 5/1 2ndAdded to that:
In 2006 take out just one of the 40 runners (Numbersixvalverdie) out, and top weight Hedgehunter would’ve won.
In 2005 take out two (Hedgehunter and Le Coudray) and top weight Royal Auclair would’ve won.
In 2004 take out the first three home and top weight Monty’s Pass would’ve won.
In 2010 only five horses carried more than Don’t Push It, including the second Black Appalache.In 2010, 19 of the 40 runners carried 11 stones or more, including 1st and 2nd. In 08/09 it was 16 of 40 including the first 4 home. In 08 it was 18 of 40 including 3rd, 4th and 5th. The race has changed.
Top weights and high weighted horses run well at Aintree. In 2002 and 2009 11-6 was carried to second place by What’s Up Boys (Kingsmark 4th under 11-9) and Comply Or Die, just 4 lbs less than this year’s top weight of 11-10. Royal Auclair in 2005 achieved the same position under 11-10.
If Denman ran in the race this season he’d stand a good chance of winning.
Horses who could be Gold Cup winners aren’t “risked” in a National. Only when proven not up to the task are they allowed to take their chance. It’s obvious those on the downgrade will find it difficult defying the handicapper.
Horses should be judged as individuals, not by what weight they’re carrying. If a high weighted horse looks either well weighted or capable of improving in to a well handicapped horse, it should be considered in just the same way as one carrying less weight.
Value Is Everything
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