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Tidal Bay confirmed as a likely runner in the Grand National, reports
racingpost.com.
He was competing in a fifth different contest at his fifth consecutive Festival when a respectable sixth in the Gold Cup.
His Cheltenham record:
Ballymore Properties…..2nd, two miles-five, hurdles
Arkle………………..1st, two miles, fences
Ryanair Chase…………4th, two miles-five, fences
World Hurdle………….7th, three miles, hurdles
Gold Cup……………..6th, three miles-two, fencesHe will be competing at the Grand National meeting for the sixth consecutive year – in his sixth different contest.
His Aintree record:
Champion Bumper……….2nd, two miles-one, flat
Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle..1st, two miles-four, hurdles
Maghull Novices’ Chase…1st, two miles, fences
Melling Chase…………5th, two miles-four, fences
Liverpool Hurdle………4th, three miles-one, hurdlesIt will be interesting to see what he makes of the those bg fences. Howard Johnson has schooled him over an Aintree-type fence and apparantly he ‘jumped like a buck’.
For those of you who doubt his ability to complete the course, how many times has he fallen and how many times has he failed to complete a race?
I’m sure he will once again have his supporters. I don’t think he will be 50/1 on the day.
Do you think Always Waining has any chance of getting in?
He was my main hope on my shortlist of outsiders along withRoll Along
Surface To Air
Frankie Figg
Bluesea CrackerVery disappointed if he doesn’t run
He needs 10 to get out to be in the ballot, but he’ll have Skippers Brig and Golden Kite to tussle with. I’m afraid it doesn’t look great, but anything can happen…
Cheers Peter H…
Maybe Frankie Figg will sneak in instead and make amends for unseating at the second last in last years Topham when going really well.
It could be all or nothing with him…
Trawled through 15 pages and no-one has mentioned my ante-post fancy!
Scotsirish
is the one I like at massive prices.
A good second in the Topham last year on first run over the fences, when he carried top weight of 11-12. Has usually ran in top class 2m/2m4f races, but was also placed in the Punchestown Gold Cup two years ago on ground much softer than he likes.
Has to be a doubt about whether he’ll stay. He’s by Zaffaran – anyone give me any pointers?
Also not sure about the record of Topham horses graduating to the National? Extra mile and a half takes some getting.
But on the whole, given that he has already taken to the National fences, he likes to be up with the pace (not necessarily a front-runner), favours good ground, has a touch of class, the backing of Willie Mullins (possibly Paul Townend too, who was on board in the Topham) and a decent racing weight (11-2) I’m happy to take three-figure prices on the machine…
Of the other Mullins ones, I think The Midnight Club is too short (especially as his last four wins, stretching back to 2008, have come on ground with ‘heavy’ in the description) and Ballytrim is a sketchy jumper).
Can’t understand why Arbor Supreme should be three times the price of Midnight Club (10lbs better off for a length beating last time out).
Anyway, enough from me…
dis.
I have taken 5/2 that
Backstage
goes off favourite just to cover my main bets at 20/1 and 16/1 about him winning.A monster gamble is being prepared here and with Paul Carberry up we have the right man for the job.Fingers crossed and that.
Get out last year’s race for a quick viewing. It’s very interesting how one horse saunters home at his own pace when his rider decides the game is up. It was definitely up in terms of winning the race but I just wonder how well he would have stayed on had the stick been drawn.
To see him winning is perhaps stretching it given the time that has elapsed since he last saw a winners enclosure but if you’re with firms offering 5 & 6 places then Comply Or Die with 10-8 is an absolute must.
disraelite – Spartan Missile won the foxhunters before going on to be runner up in the national in 81 and Grittar won the foxhunters before going on to win the national the following year…
Now those examples are a tad dated, so i’ll look from the usual spot of ’94 onwards…
Killeshin won the 94 foxhunters before going on to fail to complete the national on two occasions (on the second occasion he remounted and finished a remote 6th)
Joe White won the 96 John Hughes (Topham) before going on to pull up in the 98 National. The runner up behind Joe White; Go Universal failed to complete in 98 too.
Bells Life won the 97 John Hughes before never figuring in the 99 National
Basically this trend keeps up to the present day. Winners of the foxhunter/topham have a bad record in recent years with the one exception… the mighty Clan Royal.
Editors note: Libertine and Gunner Wellburn both put up good performances in the National after winning their respective foxhunter/tophams
But those are the winners… there is a slightly different story for those who finish behind the winners… which is where your Scotsirish comes in…
Mely Moss was second in the 99 foxhunters and 2nd in the 00 national
Bindaree was fourth in the 01 topham before going on to win the 02 national
Montys Pass was second in the 02 topham before going on to win the 03 national. Even further back in the 02 topham was Amberleigh House (04 national winner)So really… it’s 50/50! So i haven’t helped…
But for your benefit i’ll simply say… don’t trust him. He won’t stay. Good weight carrying performance in the topham last year, granted, but he’s never even come close to winning near 3 miles. I was asking myself this morning why Willie has entered him. He’s using up a spot that could be put to better use by the likes of One Cool Cookie or Royal Rosa who could actually figure. But i’m bitter.
disraelite………Mullins stated a while back that Scotsirish was 50-50 between Topham and National.
Dooneys Gate of his also ran well that day into 4th, and as far as I know he’s heading for The National. The problem with the Mullins horses is that he’s still got loads entered up for The National, and I’d be surprised if they all went there. Having said that, you couldn’t really rule any of them out.
As for your question about the Topham, they’ve been loads won or placed in it, and went on to run well in The National. The likes of Montys Pass, Clan Royal, and Sir Peter Lely spring to mind.
The flipside of that is that there have been many placed or won in The Topham who haven’t transferred it. Some examples include Tiepolino, Smith’s Man, Goguenard, Irish Raptor, Haut De Gamme, Bells Life, Cregg House (won Topham after running in National), Listen Timmy, Northern Starlight, and Glenrue.
Also previous winners such as Rough Quest (fell), and Amberleigh House (unpl) further confuse things.
.forfiet day scratchings – Deep Purple, Tatenen, Tricky Trickster, Dream Alliance, Snowy Morning, Gullible Gordon, Meanus Dandy and The Sliotar
vf
scratched – . Deep Purple, Tatenen, Tricky Trickster, Dream Alliance, Snowy Morning, Gullible Gordon, Meanus Dandy and The Sliotar
vf
I have taken 5/2 that
Backstage
goes off favourite just to cover my main bets at 20/1 and 16/1 about him winning.A monster gamble is being prepared here and with Paul Carberry up we have the right man for the job.Fingers crossed and that.
Has Paul Carberry actually been confirmed for the ride? If he has this is a huge huge plus. I know he is not everybody’s cup of tea but the likes of him and Denis o’regan are very good over those fences.
Had it been any other race,Jamie Codd would have kept the ride but this is the Greatest race in the world where experience counts for everything and Paul Carberry and Backstage will make the perfect team,he"s had the leg up before msercs.
Can’t remember a horse sporting different jockey silks three years running, but Big Fella Thanks is gonna do it! And with him being sold at the end of the season; if he comes back next year he’ll have his fourth set of silks! Remarkable…
2009: Green
2010: Purple
2011: White
2012: Who knows!?From what i can remember; the last horse to wear three different silks in the National is Delmoss in the 80’s, but even he didn’t have different ones three years on the trot…
1980: Black and yellow
1981 and 1982: Yellow, blue and white
1983: Black and redCan’t remember whether Greasepaint or Romany King had three different ones or not… and i’m not looking at distinguishing caps…
I have fun
At least he’s kept the same name, unlike the beautifully named Gay Navaree who became [yuk] Pontin-Go!
Can’t remember a horse sporting different jockey silks three years running, but Big Fella Thanks is gonna do it! And with him being sold at the end of the season; if he comes back next year he’ll have his fourth set of silks! Remarkable…
2009: Green
2010: Purple
2011: White
2012: Who knows!?From what i can remember; the last horse to wear three different silks in the National is Delmoss in the 80’s, but even he didn’t have different ones three years on the trot…
1980: Black and yellow
1981 and 1982: Yellow, blue and white
1983: Black and redCan’t remember whether Greasepaint or Romany King had three different ones or not… and i’m not looking at distinguishing caps…
I have fun
I like your kind of fun though Peter
Am fairly sure Greasepaint and Romany King only had two sets of colours apiece.
I wonder if The Vintner comes close. Don’t have my books to hand, but definitely changed colours at least once in his multiple attempts.
OA, you’re right about The Vintner only having 2 sets, along with Romany King and Greasepaint.
Northern Bay ran in The National in 3 different colours, and if you want to push it on the cap issue, ran in different colours in each of his 4 Nationals.
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