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"No Draw Bias at Ascot"

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  • #2182
    doyley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Hello,

    Think again Paul…:)

    regards,

    doyley

    #66314
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    There wasn’t much of a bias until the rain softened the ground. Now we know that if it rains heavily, you don’t want to be drawn too low in a very big field. But, will these exact conditions ever be repeated again. The Clerk of The Course and the Head Groundsman have seen what has happened this week and might do something to change things next time. This Ascot bias has swung around completely before, so it would be dangerous to be dogmatic about it.

    #66315
    doyley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Hello Art,

    Yes, I agree, I was being slightly cynical, from PAST results there appeared to be no bias, however we now know there is!!

    People castigate places like Beverley for their draw bias, now we know the multi pound mecca for the rich has a distinct bias.

    regards,

    doyley

    #66317
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    What draw bias???<br>In today’s Wokingham, 3 horses remained stands side for 3f, 2 drifted toward the centre, leaving one horse to race stand side. In the Golden Jubilee, none of the horses stayed on the stand side. <br>When only one horse in 2 races raced down the near side, how can anyone come to the conclusion that it was a disadvantage to race there???<br>The  only bias against the stand side was again,  apparently, in the jockey’s heads.<br>In the Golden Jubilee, Takeover Target and Magnus cut out the pace about 2/3rds of the way across, this group was some 3l clear of the other group 2f out and remained so to the line.<br>In the Wokingham, Merlins Dancer set a strong pace down the far side, (He was the overall leader crossing the road 4 out, despite what the RP analysis says), and his group was some 2/3 lengths clear of the centre group 2f out, where they remained until the finish. <br>Once again, (twice even), where the pace is proves a far more reliable guide to the overall outcome of the race, and once again (for about the 8th time this week) it is immediately perceived as a draw bias.<br>I despair!:o :biggrin:

    #66318
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I agree with the pace theory up to the point when it rained heavily.

    Earlier in the week, several horses ran creditably from a low draw having set the pace, but once the rain arrived the consensus was that the stands rail was slower and to be avoided. This may have been misguided, but I presume dozens of jockeys, trainers and other interested parties must have walked the course and come to that conclusion.

    However, I would not be at all surprised if, at the next meeting and following heavy rain, some unconsidered outsider races clear up the stands rail having set a fast pace.

    Every meeting at every course is slightly different depending on how they prepare the ground. You need to walk the course, watch the early races and try to anticipate where the pace will be. If you are clever enough to get it right every time, you deserve to take your chance on ‘Britain’s Got Talent’.<br>

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