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I am surprised that Nicky Henderson’s disastrous season hasn’t been featured more in the racing media. Jonjo O’Neill and Donald McCain have had lean spells, but surely their struggles are nothing compared to the unfulfilled talent at Seven Barrows this year.
What has happened? Has there been a virus or do his methods need to be reviewed? There is a shocking lack of consistency and longevity.
Established Seven Barrows stars:
My Tent Or Yours (injured)
Simonsig (MIA)
Sprinter Sacre (beaten on belated comeback)
Beat That (one run, one HEAVY defeat)
Finian’s Rainbow (who knows?)
Whisper (beaten on only chase start, reverts to hurdles)
Triolo D’Alene (out injured)
Bobs Worth (one run, one HEAVY defeat)
Ma Filleule (touted as Gold Cup contender pre-season, stuffed in all starts)
Oscar Whisky (dead)
Kid Cassidy (dead)
Captain Cutter (dead)
Josses Hill (very awkward chaser, not convincing at all)
Kentucky Hyden (dead)
Riverside Theatre (who knows?)Nicky Henderson’s biggest earners this season have either been new recruits, young horses or JP’s runners who spent part of their year at Martinstown.
L’Ami Serge, Vyta Du Roc, Snake Eyes, Peace And Co, Dawalan, Hargam, Volnay De Thaix, Sign Of A Victory, Polly Peacham, Out Sam, Top Notch.
A very well put together appraisal of Henderson’s season so far and strange to see his hurdlers seem to be way ahead of the chasing horses but let’s wait for some well handicapped chasers at Cheltenham, possibly owned by a certain JP. ?
All assumptions are purely my own.
Yes I agree.
His West Wizard today much touted beaten again. Josses Hill not a natural jumper at all IMO at the moment.
The press seem to leave off him for some reason.
Most Henderson horses you have listed (forgive me I have not delved into all) are older horses, the new/younger ones are doing well. For a big yard that is the norm, Nicky Henderson probably does not have the owner power of say Nicholls, who lets not forget, replaced some 50 odd horses this year. As a matter of interest, a good friend bought some 6 store NH horses Irish bred and bought , all won as bumper horses and hurdlers, they did not progress through to 7 and 8 over fences. That is a 100% failure in trying to get young novices through to older horses over fences. Wastage, is vast in racing and having wealthy owners to renew their ‘goods’ is paramount to having new young winners, only the numbers game gets them through to chasers. That is why they all flock to France to buy horses that are 3 that have already won around Auteuil et al. At three most horses in Ireland are unbroken. Its all about the power of the wallet for top young horses that keep the likes of Nicholls at the top.
I’ve been thinking this for a while now. I know he has a good record with debut performers, either bumper or hurdles. But it seems all of his good horses (outstanding a couple of them) don’t last as long as a Nicholls horses. Even those that went from hurdling to chasing – Grandouet, Oscar Whisky, Simonsig and Josses Hill, just haven’t got anywhere near reaching their potential over fences. I always thought he was a trainer of chasers and having good hurdlers was a bonus.(Sure I read that somewhere years ago). But it seems once fences are involved, either something goes amiss or they can’t fulfill their potential.
Their was plenty of press regarding the poor form of the O Neill operation, but nothing regarding the form of the Henderson horses. Apart from a handful from probably the most powerful stable the rest are under performing or on the treatment table. It has parallels to the Arsenal football team and the way those players are constantly injured you have to question the training methods. Either there has been a virus or something is wrong behind the scenes, as he’s normally a conveyor belt of winners. I hope, like Arsenal, his season starts turning around and he gets some of his big performers back in peak form for the festival.Struggling to see why anyone should be condemning Henderson compared to O’Neill. Didn’t O’Neill go about two months without sending out a single winner? At least Henderson talks to the press and doesn’t run an operation that from a punter’s perspective isn’t entirely shrouded in secrecy. While Henderson has given out regular updates about Sprinter Sacre what have we got from O’Neill regarding the likes of Holywell and More Of That? Typically, absolutely nothing.
Wasn’t condemning anyone, just wondered why the conveyor belt of endless winners at all levels of the game has pretty much shriveled up. Half his team are injured or worse and those who are running, only a few are doing well. It’s normally a far more successful stable than is at the moment. There has been press about other stable’s form but not Henderson…
I think the perception of the stable being out of sorts is misleading and getting seen out of proportion because of some big name casualties in both fatalities and injuries.
Success at the very top level tends to fluctuate and I believe we need to look at the overall performance of the stable to gauge how out of sorts it is.
Jonjo went winner-less for a worryingly long time but my first instinct was that Henderson has been picking away despite the obvious big name casualties along the way.
Just to make sure I thought I would pull the stats for the month past and compare that to previous Januaries in recent times:-
Jan 2015 Runners 57 Winners 15 Strike Rate 26%
Jan 2014 Runners 37 Winners 10 Strike Rate 27%
Jan 2013 Runners 51 Winners 11 Strike Rate 21%
Jan 2012 Runners 88 Winners 24 Strike Rate 27%
There is not much there to suggest that the stable is in major decline compared to normal service for the time of year.
Crunching the numbers for the past five years overall shows a strike rate of:-
2010 23%
2011 26%
2012 25%
2013 23%
2014 23%
Again, nothing to suggest the stable has "lost it"
As I say, success at the very top ebbs and flows, which horses get injured is a matter of bad luck sometimes.
The stable had two odds-on shots beat today, which is worrying but they also landed the last two races on the card as well.
Today’s odds-on losers were a bit of an accident waiting to happen. Josses Hill had been beaten at odds-on behind Ptit Zig and then made quite hard work of landing odds of 4/11 next time. West Wizard had been beaten at odds of 2/9 and 1/6 the previous twice and was stepping up a full 5f in trip today, but these factors never seem to stop bookies putting them up short and punters wading in.
Time will tell if Sire De Grugy is a better bet at similar odds to West Wizard tomorrow, but in my eyes he was/is. Sometimes these odds on shots are just bad value and it’s a bit of an illusion that the stable is as bad as some of the signs would have you believe.
The percentages don’t indicate the canker setting in that seems to have been suggested in places.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yep, fair response….maybe it’s because of the higher profile names that are out or under performing we make assumptions…
Indeed, good response Stevecaution – excellent stats too.
Maybe it is a case of bad luck, but I can’t recall a time when one of the top two yards has had such a bad trot with practically every single one of their established stars failing in one year. Even when Paul Nicholls saw Kauto Star, Denman, Al Ferof, Big Bucks and Master Minded retire or get injured, he had grizzled old sticks like Neptune Collonges, Celestial Halo, Zarkandar and Silviniaco Conti to call upon. Going back in time, Nicholls got extended careers from Royal Auclair, Earthmover, Cenkos, See More Business and Armaturk too.
Looking to other leading trainers, David Pipe brought back Our Vic, Comply Or Die, Well Chief and Buena Vista for multiple seasons at their best, even despite injuries and temperament issues for some of them.
Jonjo had Alberta’s Run cherry-ripe again and again for the RSA and Ryanair and you could set your clock by Get Me Out Of Here at Cheltenham in March.
Philip Hobbs has a high attrition rate, but look at Rooster Booster, Monkerhostin, Wishfull Thinking, Menorah, Lacdoudal and Fair Along.
Henderson has extracted more than 18 months of top notch form from his horses in the past, so why are their bursts of peak talent so short-lived now? It feels like his steady volume of winners is just from the conveyor belt of young talent being sent to Seven Barrows right now.
Marlborough, Binocular (kinda), See You Then, Bacchanal and Caracciola did the business for Henderson for years. In fact, Caracciola was better than ever as he got into his teens! Was he just lucky to get such ‘career-stayers’ or have his methods changed?
I find NH a bit of an enigma. Very communicative on Sprinter Sacre, but more or less silent on Captain Conan, Finian’s Rainbow. Maybe he deserves a squiggle.
The stats look a bit different if you split the results for hurdlers and chasers. Over fences, the stable is now 3/51 since Nov 1st, a period in which he’d normally send out 20+ chase winners.
Those three winners have all been short priced favourites in novice chases, and all three were beaten favourites on their next start including Josses Hill yesterday.
And there certainly won’t be a rescue operation mounted in the handicap chases with horses owneed by JP – the half dozen he owns in the yard are all hurdlers. In fact, it’s hard to envisage Henderson posing any threat at all in the handicap or novice chases at the festival, as the talent just isn’t there.
Very different story with the hurdlers though!
I’d definitely blame Henderson for the dead and injured ones, particularly the dead ones. There’s just no excuse for it and the buck stops with the trainer.
The inclusion of sadly deceased horses is bizarre.
The lack of handicap chasers in the yard is my biggest criticism – and it’s more concern than criticism because i think he’s the best in the business. Might be a similar scenario next season because there don’t appear to be many novices or second season chasers who will challenge for the big Saturday prize money.
The inclusion of sadly deceased horses is bizarre.
The lack of handicap chasers in the yard is my biggest criticism – and it’s more concern than criticism because i think he’s the best in the business. Might be a similar scenario next season because there don’t appear to be many novices or second season chasers who will challenge for the big Saturday prize money.
I think I posted on another topic that Henderson has only had something like 12 chase winners so far this year! Hobbs 44, King, 18, Nicholls 48, Skelton 19. Thats pretty low, but he does have more hurdle winners than Nicholls. Agree including dead horses is utterly ridiculous. As a matter of interest, the fatalities suffered in general is ‘insurance calculated’ at around 3% per yard per year.
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