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Would it be a wise (or foolish) move to back both Sublimity and Sizing Europe to win the Champion Hurdle ?
If I was a wise man I suppose I should bet Sublimity as I suppose he is the biggest danger. Unfortunately I simply don’t like the horse, think he’s over rated and I would rather lose than put one coin on him……I never back against my own Judgment which I suppose is my biggest weakness.
As far as anyone else doing it…..I think there are too many horses in the race that could win to bet those two and be guaranteed the winner.
I’ve always thought SE was a bit special since I first saw him but even I think 2/1 is a bit on the short side at this time……gets there on the day fit and well I wouldn’t bet against him again. II say again having also backed Katchit EW.
Katchit could still be the one I still say we haven’t seen the best of him, Straw Bear is such an in and out character he could shock everyone if he got 1st run on them. Osana could run them ragged…too many horses in there that if they won you wouldn’t be too surprised..even if Afsoun ran in it and won I wouldn’t be totally shocked.
Your too dependent on too many things at once Sal. First the champion Hurdle would need to be a worse or as bad a race than it was last year for Sublimity to be concerned in the finish. He found nothing after hitting the front and you saw the best he is. By that I mean had anything else been there with him in a race to the line I reckon he would have found nothing more.
I think you would find it argue that this year’s potential line up is weaker than last year’s, on paper.
As regards Sublimity last year, he couldn’t have won any easier, cantering in behind from a long way out, was asked to pick up after the last and settled the race in a matter of strides. I’m not concerned with a horse idling in front if he has already put the race to bed.
You also have to hope that Sizing Europe jockey is totally wrong when he said the horse need a faster pace and will be better for it. He was never out of a canter for 90% of the race and lost next to no ground at all with his jumping except for one hurdle on the far side which was probably about 1 length.
I’m not overly concerned with the jockey thinks, especially one who is relatively new to the bigger stage.
You would also need the ground to be very near to good at Cheltnham to see the best of Blythe Knight and he would have to run the best race of his life to be concerned in the finish. John Quinn is under no illusions about the horse and knows that as much as anyone and for personal reasons there is no one would be happier than me if he won. Realistically speaking he needs to improve one helluva lot. Anyway if he runs in The Kingwell against Osana that question may be answered then.
Blythe Knight has run his best races on Soft, Good to soft and Good ground. I don’t believe the ground a major issue for him. Sizing Europe has yet to prove he can run to the same level on faster ground than he has on the soft on Sunday. I don’t accept a novice hurdle win on good to firm ground carries the same weight
Regarding Osana, when those two met at Aintree, Blythe Knight cantered all over him in a very impressive fashion, so i don’t think he has anything to fear from Osana.
You say you think Sublimity is good value because Sizing Europe’s best form is on soft ground. It may come as a surprise to you but Sublimities only form over hurdles is on soft or heavy. You have to go back along way to his flat races to find form for him on fast ground. Sizing Europe on the other hand won on good to (good to firm) in Ireland and put up a class performance doing it. With his huge stride and good ground if anything he will be a better horse but wont mind soft either.
But good luck to you but I would start looking for other reasons to back the horse than the ones you have posted
Sizing Europe did not put up a ‘class performance’ on good to firm – he won a novice hurdle by 3 and a half lengths.
Sizing Europe jumps like a chaser, and at championship pace, not the pace they run at in Ireland, i would much rather a horse who hurdles in economic fashion, such as Harchibald.
I would agree strongly with that last line and it was that which made me hesitate at 3/1 for SE. You only have to think back to the lost momentum we have frequently seen with poor hurdling (especially at the last two) at Cheltenham,
Regarding Blythe Knight, surely Osana has improved a fair bit since that race Salse? Im just concerned that they cannot seem to get the runs into BK. Same with Sublimity. Sure it worked last year, but that last Cheltenham run was awful and again i would just rather be with one that has been running more consistently
I think you would have to have screw loose if you thought that was a good champion hurdle last year…….must be the worst one I have ever seen.
I’m not 100% sure Osana has improved that much Clive but probably has a bit more on him now than when he met Blythe Knight.
The problem with Osana is I don’t think the Pipes ever thought he was a Champion Hurdle horse and probably had him 100% the day he beat Katchit. If you have a good horse like Osana it’s sometimes quite easy to pick up these prizes. By everything I have told and even read it on here from someone connected to the yard Katchit was short of a gallop 2 races ago and they couldn’t get any work into him between his last 2 races. If that is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, the form is probably not up to much.
The Katchit then and the Katchit we see in March just simply wont be the same horse is what I have always believed, since my friend was told not to touch him with a bargepole in his 2nd race of the season.
But all that said and done Osana is the one horse I can’t for the life of me work out I really don’t know what to make of him.
If there’s no one else really writing about sectional analysis, i suppose you can get away with writing twaddle.
Graeme North writes intelligently about sectional-timing analysis on a weekly basis in Raceform Update, imo.
He and I developed our approaches separately while at Timeform, and go about things in a slightly different way. But we usually come to similar conclusions (which is kinda how it should be).
I’d just like to point out that I don’t think everything Mordin writes on the subject is twaddle, and at least he is taking sectional timing seriously now.
I think you would have to have screw loose if you thought that was a good champion hurdle last year…….must be the worst one I have ever seen.
if that refers to my comment i never said last years CH was Good i said will this years be as good as last years in terms of quality….?
I would say that Sublimity was more impressive in beating Hardy Eustace in the champion hurdle last year than Sizing Europe was in beating Hardy Eustace in the AIG this year(Im sure many will disagree).
I would be of the opinion that Hardy Eustace is not as good a horse this year and on that basis alone I believe Sublimity should be the favourite (assuming he is going to turn up as the same horse he was last year which is far from guaranteed).
Maybe there is a horse lurking at the foot of the market that no one is talking about who will go and win it this year. No one was really talking about Sublimity last year before he won it. Its a tricky puzzle and I wont nail my colours to any mast yet.I would say that Sublimity was more impressive in beating Hardy Eustace in the champion hurdle last year than Sizing Europe was in beating Hardy Eustace in the AIG this year(Im sure many will disagree).
I would be of the opinion that Hardy Eustace is not as good a horse this year and on that basis alone I believe Sublimity should be the favourite (assuming he is going to turn up as the same horse he was last year which is far from guaranteed).
Maybe there is a horse lurking at the foot of the market that no one is talking about who will go and win it this year. No one was really talking about Sublimity last year before he won it. Its a tricky puzzle and I wont nail my colours to any mast yet.i remember reading in one of the Irish papers last year an interview with Philip Carb. he stated in it the Sublimity would deffo win champion hurdle at the time i thought it was a bold comment and one many Jocks make about their horses, but comming to last the hurdle in that race that piece i read came right back to me and i couldnt stop kicking myself for not having an small e/w bet on him so maybe there is another one like him waiting in the wings???
I would agree strongly with that last line and it was that which made me hesitate at 3/1 for SE. You only have to think back to the lost momentum we have frequently seen with poor hurdling (especially at the last two) at Cheltenham,
Regarding Blythe Knight, surely Osana has improved a fair bit since that race Salse? Im just concerned that they cannot seem to get the runs into BK. Same with Sublimity. Sure it worked last year, but that last Cheltenham run was awful and again i would just rather be with one that has been running more consistently
Clive,
I agree, Osana has improved since that Aintree run. But, there is no reason to not believe the same level of improvement won’t be forthcoming from Blythe knight, bearing in mind the improvement he has shown subsequent to that Aintree run on the flat last summer (G3 winner and G2 placed).I think I read John Quinn is giving him a break as he had been on the go in both codes for quite some time upto the Fighting Fifth, to freshen him up for the CH, possibly with a run in the Kingwell.
Jazz Messenger? Ebaziyan?
If it’s a weak year for 2 milers as some are stating, you would have to give em consideration, but is it a weak year???
If I had to lay a horse in the Champion it would be Sublimity. He’s going to arrive there after one run where he was beaten pointless- I can’t remember a Champion Hurdle being won off that kind of preparation. I reckon john Carr got lucky last year but either the horse isn’t as good or he’s buggered him up this year.
I think you would have to have screw loose if you thought that was a good champion hurdle last year…….must be the worst one I have ever seen.
if that refers to my comment i never said last years CH was Good i said will this years be as good as last years in terms of quality….?
It did Batman but the "YOU" was not referring to you it was referring to anyone who thought it wasn’t a better race this year than the debacle we ended up seeing last year. I never thought for 1 minute you were saying last years CH was a good race……………I was only saying what you would have said someone had said it was
Sorry about that
Sublimity was a funny beast on the Flat Carvs
Capable of decent performances on the odd occasion. Like when he won the Alleged and the Doncaster Mile, but those type of performances were only odd occasions
He could repeat the CH performance i suppose, but he does look one to take on at current odds
If I had to lay a horse in the Champion it would be Sublimity. He’s going to arrive there after one run where he was beaten pointless- I can’t remember a Champion Hurdle being won off that kind of preparation. I reckon john Carr got lucky last year but either the horse isn’t as good or he’s buggered him up this year.
Have to agree with you 100%.it’s one thing looking after a horse leading up to Cheltenham but the horse should have been left in at Leapordstown to at least see if the ground ended up ok. You would have thought they would have been desperate to get another race into him. It wouldn’t be the first time a trainer has pulled the wool over an owners eyes if there is something amiss.
I have never doubted for 1 minute that he was a lucky horse last year he was after all a shock winner………..having done nothing since hardly inspires me to think he’s even going to be a threat this year.
I would say that Sublimity was more impressive in beating Hardy Eustace in the champion hurdle last year than Sizing Europe was in beating Hardy Eustace in the AIG this year(Im sure many will disagree).
I would be of the opinion that Hardy Eustace is not as good a horse this year and on that basis alone I believe Sublimity should be the favourite (assuming he is going to turn up as the same horse he was last year which is far from guaranteed).
Maybe there is a horse lurking at the foot of the market that no one is talking about who will go and win it this year. No one was really talking about Sublimity last year before he won it. Its a tricky puzzle and I wont nail my colours to any mast yet.It may shock you me saying this but I have never thought Hardy Eustace is a good horse as per CH standards. He was nothing more than the best of a bad lot. This is the start of a new era and my advice is forget every horse that ran in last years race including Sublimity. Last year is over and a new one just begun as John Lennon said
I was more impressed by Katchit’s Cheltenham Aintree double than what Sublimity did and I’d be more worried about him than Sublimity come CH day.
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