- This topic has 36 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
2:05
I’ve backed three in the first at Newmarket (you know me). I backed Second Step when a non-runner at Royal Ascot, Stable in excellent form and possible Charlton can pull a bit more to get right back to his best. However, has been held up in most recent races and with Spencer on board those may also be the tactics here – @ 100/30 just a saver in a race that might be slowly run. Midterm doesn’t always race prominently but led in France – running perfectly well – and wasn’t very far behind the leader at Newbury; main bet @ 5/2. Red Verden will perhaps be the most inconvenienced by a slowish pace, Mount Logan doesn’t seem to have much of a change of speed either. Not convinced of Platitude‘s temperament. However, my other main bet (to win by far most money) is the outsider Lord Yeats @ 14/1. May only be a handicpper at this point but is improving, goes well on a soft surface, may get an easy lead and trainer Jed O’Keeffe is in the form of his life!3:15
Home Of The Brave @ 9/4, Tasleet has probably improved since following him home on reappearance, but that suggested he’s at least as good as ever and goes on a soft surface. Richard Pankhurst did beat HOTB in the Hungerford, but the selection probably went too quick and the Gosden horse is not sure to like a soft surface and is a lot more inconsistent than Palmer’s. Could do without Ibn Malik, hopefully they don’t take each other on. Hills horse looked as if temperament was getting the best of him when last seen; but the fact he’s been off course almost a year suggests a physical problem. Does however have a good record fresh and has been backed today at double figures. Needs to improve. Other one I like at the prices is Thikriyaat @ 13/2. If the two pace horses go too fast it could be him that takes advantage. Reappearance at York encouraging and possible a drop in trip to this 7f could suit. Chased home Ribchester when 2 1/4 lengths runner-up in 2016 Jersey Stakes. Breton Rock is the classic 7f soft ground horse and won this last year, won’t be far away but will probably need a career best at the age of 7 to actually win. imo Poorly priced unless it’s very soft. Jungle Cat looks a sprinter and Ifwecan outclassed. I backed Winning Ways for the Jersey at Royal Ascot, was improving but disappointed. Quick reappearance here and encouraging has been backed this morning. However, needs a performance worthy of winning a Jersey to win today.Value Is EverythingLonger time analysis gives Charlie Hills a poorish strike rate. However, I do believe that a lot of “trainer in form” analysis covers too long. Last 4 days from June 26th Chralie is 4 from 14 (28.6%) which compares really well with his overall strike rate. Those winners came at odds of 3/1, 6/1, 12/1 and 5/1, so they didn’t have an obvious chance. There were also 3 second places and a third in that time period too. In my “trainers in form” analysis Charlie is top of tomorrow’s race with 8 out of 10, with Richard Fahy on 7/10.
Elizabeth Bennett might have won a class 5, but she won it by 5 lengths (6 if you consider the second’s jockey was an apprentice well worth his 3 lbs). You wouldn’t expect horses 6+ lengths behind to do that well and those who’ve run haven’t done too badly. Form considering winning distance is pretty good. Tajaanus‘s form comes from only one grade “better” (4) and only beat runner-up Queen Penn 1/2 length with a nose back to third Villa Tora. However, as you say Steve, Tajaanus has bags of improvement in her. There’s also an extremely important going angle. Hannon horse has form on soft where as Elizabeth bennett does not, neither does Dance Diva although she is by Mayson – normally a soft ground influence and a test of stamina at the trip could suit the Fahy runner. At the moment am less keen on the latter. Has won both starts but didn’t seem to improve that much – quite a bunched finish and runner-up Vodka Pigeon did nowt for the form at Newmarket this evening. At the prices (double figures) am more interested in the Fahy second string Maggies Angel who’s got progressive form at 5f and could improve for the step up to 6f judged on the class 2 Hilary Needler. Finishing strongly and coming out the best horse at the weights. Karl Burke’s Ellthea will come in to consideration if the rain continues as she’s proven on very soft ground and few two year olds cope with such conditions. As well as horses needing to act in the underfoot conditions, what’s often missed is very soft ground also places emphasis on stamina – be similar to 6 1/2 furlongs on good. So Elizabeth Bennett and Maggies Angel wouldn’t be sure to stay if ground goes too soft.
Most likely:
If I think it’s truly good-soft then 7/2 Elizabeth Bennett will imo be a good bet along with Maggies Angel at double figure odds, with a saver on Tajaanus.
If thinking it’s very soft may give the race a miss.Juded by times the ground at Newmarket got no worse than good-soft, but there is a little more rain in the forecast.
Have now backed Elizabeth Bennett @ 7/2 and Maggies Angel @ 10/1 with a saver on Tajaanus.
Value Is Everything2:05
However, my other main bet (to win by far most money) is the outsider Lord Yeats @ 14/1. May only be a handicpper at this point but is improving, goes well on a soft surface, may get an easy lead and trainer Jed O’Keeffe is in the form of his life!
Value Is EverythingWhat a call!!!! He’s back! The boy is back!!!!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Had Maggies Angel been ridden on the stand side might easily have been 3 from 3. Not that I blame the jockey, no room and wouldn’t have got a run on inner.
Thanks lads, after Home Of The Brave won, all me and Joni want now is Cracksman winning the Irish Derby.
Value Is Everything…Cracksman didn’t quite do it, but my other bet did Capri @ 10/1.
Waldgeist was perhaps unlucky in Prix De Jockey Club, having to wait briefly for run in what wasn’t the truest run race. Fact he’s by Galileo from a middle distance/staying female line and won a 1m2f Group 1 as a two year old, on probably similar ground to today’s… means chances are he’ll improve at this trip.
Wings Of Eagles won fair and square at Epsom how the race was run. But I wonder if meeting trouble actually helped; delayed his challenge in what was a strongly (perhaps too strongly) run race. That said, he’s improving and should run well again. Possible he’s est suited by a firm surface too; only disappointing run in the Criteriun De Saint Cloud (behind Waldgeist) on softest he’s encountered. Although could’ve been just over the top for the season.
Cracksman didn’t seem to handle the track – on and off the bridle – that was after all only his third race. Half the number of Wings Of Eagles. Although is yet to race on a soft surface the action shown at Epsom suggests it won’t inconvenience him and may even improve for it. Cracksman raced more prominently than the other Derby principles and as a result may be better than result suggests.
One I backed ante-post for Epsom was Capri, who was only 3 3/4 lengths behind the winner despite making ground up when the pace was probably at its fastest and coming wide around Tattenham corner. Proven on a soft surface and likely to be closer to the big three here in what seems certain to be another test of stamina at the trip.
Douglas Macarthur did well at Epsom considering seemed to be the sacrificial lamb, setting a pace that had no chance of maintaining. Could do better here if allowed, but is he the pacemaker again? At a guess, Taj Mahal and The Anvil look likely to play the hares this time. However, Douglas had a hard race and might take him longer to recover than other Derby runners. The other runners Grandee and Dubai Sand don’t look up to this grade.
If someone asked me which horse has the best chance of winning? I couldn’t split the top three. That means I’ve got to go for the biggest priced of them; Cracksman @ around 3/1. Also think Capri is over-priced @ double figure odds.
3 good winners from 4 races.
Lord Yeats, Home Of The Brave and Capri all “main bets”.That’ll do nicely.
Value Is EverythingMy favourite racecourse Ginger and I’ll be popping in from time to time if that’s alright with you.
What a great start to the new Thread brilliant call with Lord Yeats in the first.
Midterm who was desperately unlucky and eased so have to rule a line under his run.Great to see Hugo Palmer back on track with Home Of The Brave winning yesterday but my biggest disappointment of the day was Tajaanus in the Empress Fillies Stakes, she was full of running with nowhere to go, switched and switched again and by the time Jim Crowley got her into a position to challenge they were going away up the hill and she had no chance, she’s a winner in waiting.
Look forward to your review of the July Cup Meeting nearer the time.
Can Limato bounce back or is it going to be Caravaggio? I’m going with age before beauty and sticking with Limato, there’ll be none more popular if he pulls it off again..Jac Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Princess Of Wales:
At the prices I want to be against the favourite here. For all Frontiersman was second to subsequent Prince Of Wales winner Highland Reel, but he also showed a bit of temperament there. Rolling down the camber and awkward head carriage. I guess that’s why he’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time now. RUK’s preview says Appleby has a great record with cp’s first time out; but I don’t like horses wearing fto cp’s immediately after a personal best. If it was only the track that was the problem will be hard to beat; but 13/8 – not for me.
Prefer the second string Hawksbill, who was 3 1/2 lengths behind his stable companion at Epsom. Looking to be travelling best around Tattenham Corner, argueably went after Highland Reel too soon. Running well enough to suggest he acts on a sound surface. Looks the most likely to set the pace here and dictating a slow pace to suit his kick/speed could give a considerale advantage. 2016 Eclipse winner. Ran poorly last time out (in France) only 11 days ago, but am more likely to excuse a poor run abroad. Worth taking a chance at double figure odds.
My biggest bet is Poet’s Word, who imo may well have gone for the Hardwicke if not for the stable companion favourite for that race being owned by the Queen. Got too far back in a slowly run Huxley. Only going down by a rapidly diminishing neck. All the way winner Deauville only 1 1/2 lengths 3rd in Queen Anne. Way Poet’s Word finished suggests this trip should suit. Hopefully Ryan won’t make the same mistake as Andrea.
Could be said Wings Of Desire isn’t that consistent. Form figures of 429-5 since the Dante win. But Epsom was too soft for a horse with his action; International too short and 3 1/2 lengths behind Idaho not a bad reappearance. The “2” is when getting closer to Highland Reel in the King George VI than Frontiersman did in the Coronation Cup. Gosden now tries cheek pieces.
Algometer was a good 1 1/4 lengths second to Autocratic in the Brigadier Gerrard. Coming out the best horse at the weights. This is another step up in grade though and am doubtful he’ll get the run of the race.
Western Hymn am always happy to oppose, runs far more poor races than good and Mantahaa seems in poor form.
My 100% Book:
Frontiersman 9/4, Poet’s Word 11/4, Wings Of Desire 4/1, Hawkbill 8/1, Algometer 12/1, Western Hymn 33/1, Muntahaa 40/1.I’ve backed Poet’s Word @ 7/2 and Hawkbill @ 11/1 with a saver on Wings Of Eagles @ 9/2.
Value Is EverythingMy favourite racecourse Ginger and I’ll be popping in from time to time if that’s alright with you.
What a great start to the new Thread brilliant call with Lord Yeats in the first.
Midterm who was desperately unlucky and eased so have to rule a line under his run.Great to see Hugo Palmer back on track with Home Of The Brave winning yesterday but my biggest disappointment of the day was Tajaanus in the Empress Fillies Stakes, she was full of running with nowhere to go, switched and switched again and by the time Jim Crowley got her into a position to challenge they were going away up the hill and she had no chance, she’s a winner in waiting.
Look forward to your review of the July Cup Meeting nearer the time.
Can Limato bounce back or is it going to be Caravaggio? I’m going with age before beauty and sticking with Limato, there’ll be none more popular if he pulls it off again..Jac Thanks Jac and Raymo.
Am already on Harry Angel and Tasleet. Will have more on the July Cup on Friday night. Value Is EverythingDoesn’t seem that many progressive types in the July Stakes.
One I like is Invincible Army. Odds on but won at Newmarket last time out in impressive style by 5 lengths. By one of the best sprint sires of this century, Invincible Spirit out of Rajeem, who pulled off a Clive Brittain 50/1 shock in the Falmouth. Got scope for more improvement. Stable are in excellent form and there seems to be a lot of pace here, which should suit Invincible Army. Great bet @ 6/1, and if waiting you could get quite a bit better tomorrow morning. If your bookmaker will give you each way terms – take it!
Rajasinge has a penalty for the Coventry win, wasn’t an outstanding renewal, but worth a saver @ 9/4+. Would be a lot shorter from an estalished trainer and Richard Spencer is a name for the future. Rajasinge could yet improve further and already has the best form on offer. Saver.
My other bet is Enjazaat; from another under-rated trainer in really good form; Owen Burrows. Impressive 6 lengths winner of his maiden. Needs to improve a good deal but could be anything. One of the prominent runners, so need to take a chance there and with effectiveness on ground. Only run on soft so far but shouldn’t be an issue on breeding. By Acclamation out of a Green Desert mare. 15/1 too big to ignore.
Value Is EverythingBahrain Tophy:
This race looks full of pace. Crowded Eagle, Sofia’s Rock, Wisconsin and Wolf County all argueably best from the front; I want to be against the lot of them. Favourite Atty Persse led last time too. However, doesn’t need to lead, as he showed on reappearance and hopefully will be more conservatively ridden here. Looked the proverbial “group horse in a handicap” last time out at Ascot and finished the race off to such affect another furlong shouldn’t matter. Progression probably not finished yet.
Brian Meehan often goes through long losing runs. Raheen House ran well at Ascot to be 2 3/4 lengths 4th in the King Ed. Came from off the pace and those tactics should help again today. Trainer now in far better form and another good run is anticipated.
Difficult to choose between the two Wiltshire trained horses.
Tamleek looks temperamental. Face The Facts wasn’t far behind Desert Skyline in the Queen’s Vase, but the Gosden horse appeared devoid of speed and yet comes down in trip. My other main bet is Desert Skyline. Not obvious on 3 1/2 lengths 6th and is easy to back tonight, out to 11/1 on exchanges, top price 15/2 with bookies. However, likely pace could play in to his usual hold up tactics.I’ve backed Atty Persse @ 11/4 and Desert Skyline 11/1 with a saver on Raheen House 7/2.
Value Is EverythingJust off to Newmarket and my best picks are:
Atty Persse
FRONTIERSMAN *Nap*
Cartographer and
Ronald R in the last.Looking forward to seeing them all today, good luck Ginge and everyone having a bet today.
Can’t wait to get to Newmarket..Jac Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Just off to Newmarket and my best picks are:
Atty Persse
FRONTIERSMAN *Nap*
Cartographer and
Ronald R in the last.Looking forward to seeing them all today, good luck Ginge and everyone having a bet today.
Can’t wait to get to Newmarket..Jac You must think it’s going to be a favourites day at Newmarket, Jac.
Cartographer was impressive there last time, in (considering the rain on the day) a fastish time and SDS always a plus.
Thought Ronald R was destined for better things and it was so disappointing at Salisbury last year when finishing 8th out of 10 as 3/1 jf. Gather there was some physical problem and delighted to see him back to form this year. Might take a look at that race more closely later. Feel free to put any of your Newmarket tips on here Jac.
Value Is EverythingPrincess Of Wales:
At the prices I want to be against the favourite here. For all Frontiersman was second to subsequent Prince Of Wales winner Highland Reel, but he also showed a bit of temperament there. Rolling down the camber and awkward head carriage. I guess that’s why he’s wearing cheek pieces for the first time now. RUK’s preview says Appleby has a great record with cp’s first time out; but I don’t like horses wearing fto cp’s immediately after a personal best. If it was only the track that was the problem will be hard to beat; but 13/8 – not for me.
Prefer the second string Hawksbill, who was 3 1/2 lengths behind his stable companion at Epsom. Looking to be travelling best around Tattenham Corner, argueably went after Highland Reel too soon. Running well enough to suggest he acts on a sound surface. Looks the most likely to set the pace here and dictating a slow pace to suit his kick/speed could give a considerale advantage. 2016 Eclipse winner. Ran poorly last time out (in France) only 11 days ago, but am more likely to excuse a poor run abroad. Worth taking a chance at double figure odds.
My biggest bet is Poet’s Word, who imo may well have gone for the Hardwicke if not for the stable companion favourite for that race being owned by the Queen. Got too far back in a slowly run Huxley. Only going down by a rapidly diminishing neck. All the way winner Deauville only 1 1/2 lengths 3rd in Queen Anne. Way Poet’s Word finished suggests this trip should suit. Hopefully Ryan won’t make the same mistake as Andrea.
Could be said Wings Of Desire isn’t that consistent. Form figures of 429-5 since the Dante win. But Epsom was too soft for a horse with his action; International too short and 3 1/2 lengths behind Idaho not a bad reappearance. The “2” is when getting closer to Highland Reel in the King George VI than Frontiersman did in the Coronation Cup. Gosden now tries cheek pieces.
Algometer was a good 1 1/4 lengths second to Autocratic in the Brigadier Gerrard. Coming out the best horse at the weights. This is another step up in grade though and am doubtful he’ll get the run of the race.
Western Hymn am always happy to oppose, runs far more poor races than good and Mantahaa seems in poor form.
My 100% Book:
Frontiersman 9/4, Poet’s Word 11/4, Wings Of Desire 4/1, Hawkbill 8/1, Algometer 12/1, Western Hymn 33/1, Muntahaa 40/1.I’ve backed Poet’s Word @ 7/2 and Hawkbill @ 11/1 with a saver on Wings Of Eagles @ 9/2.
Poet’s Word a non-runner, Hawkbill’s chance of dictating increased and now a major bet.
Got 8.6/1 including reduction factor and gone in again for the Godolphin second string @ 7/1, laid the first string @ 11/10. Wings Of Desire – may be cheek pieces mean he’ll race prominently – a lesser main bet @ 7/2 (now more than a saver) with money back (saver) on Algometer 7/1.Value Is EverythingBahrain Tophy:
This race looks full of pace. Crowded Eagle, Sofia’s Rock, Wisconsin and Wolf County all argueably best from the front; I want to be against the lot of them. Favourite Atty Persse led last time too. However, doesn’t need to lead, as he showed on reappearance and hopefully will be more conservatively ridden here. Looked the proverbial “group horse in a handicap” last time out at Ascot and finished the race off to such affect another furlong shouldn’t matter. Progression probably not finished yet.
Brian Meehan often goes through long losing runs. Raheen House ran well at Ascot to be 2 3/4 lengths 4th in the King Ed. Came from off the pace and those tactics should help again today. Trainer now in far better form and another good run is anticipated.
Difficult to choose between the two Wiltshire trained horses.
Tamleek looks temperamental. Face The Facts wasn’t far behind Desert Skyline in the Queen’s Vase, but the Gosden horse appeared devoid of speed and yet comes down in trip. My other main bet is Desert Skyline. Not obvious on 3 1/2 lengths 6th and is easy to back tonight, out to 11/1 on exchanges, top price 15/2 with bookies. However, likely pace could play in to his usual hold up tactics.I’ve backed Atty Persse @ 11/4 and Desert Skyline 11/1 with a saver on Raheen House 7/2.
Atty Persse didn’t fire, Charlton was in great form going in to Royal Ascot and now only in average form. In contrast Raheen House (Meehan) is now in far better form than Ascot. Wrong decision in the main and saver bet. Desert Skyline got a race run to suit – for once – still needed another furlong. Out-did his odds but not good enough. Money back so no harm done. They finished tired and on first look Sofia’s Rock did well considering made a fast pace.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.