Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Nell Gwyn Stakes
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April 15, 2024 at 20:13 #1690659
This is the start of the flat season proper in my eyes, glad to be back from hibernation.
I respect the two at the top of the betting in this (Dance Sequence + Matrika) but the former looks super skinny at 5/6. No surprise if either go on to win but the one that stood out to me, especially price wise, was TRUE CYAN.
Won on debut on the Rowley, looking potentially smart and the two directly behind her won next time out.TRUE CYAN 14/1
April 16, 2024 at 15:42 #1690748Yes, a fascinating encounter. The market leaders from their respective powerful yards offer an intriguing dual. Dance Sequence looked open to plenty of maturity when landing the Oh So Sharp Stakes over course and distance last October with an action that suggests any further rain would not go amiss.
Matrika looks a potentially top class performer, but over what trip? Her trainer has expressed doubts about her staying a mile in the future, but seven furlongs looks within Matrika’s grasp. She looked both progressive and smart when winning the Airlie Stud Stakes over six furlongs last year.
Two unexposed fillies from powerful yards, whose careers could take totally different paths as the season unfolds. Matrika could potentially be a smart sprinter, while Dance Sequence could stay beyond tomorrows seven furlong trip, and even a mile, in the future.
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
April 16, 2024 at 20:25 #1690782Probably going to be a watch race but I would be tempted by True Cyan will see how I view it tomorrow.
"Life is timeless, days are long when you're young"
April 16, 2024 at 21:47 #1690790I am siding with Dance Sequence here although I won’t be backing her at that short price. Charlie Appleby has always had the 1000 Guineas in mind for her so let’s see what she can do tomorrow.
Looking down the card for a filly at a decent price to back EW I’ve landed on…
Lexington Belle – 40/1
She has to take a big step up to
beat the big girls but last year she ran 10 times as a 2yo ending on a low at the Rowley Mile after a long season on November 4th but prior to that she had been running creditably for her syndicate and earned her black type running 3rd in Chantilly last October to Andre Fabre’s Sajir who has just this week won a Group 3 at the same course.If she has progressed since this and reports from her yard suggest she is in good spirits, she could sneak into a place at a nice price
Dance Sequence – 4/7f
Lexington Belle – 40/1 – EWBest of luck..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...April 17, 2024 at 10:29 #1690830Just went back and put a little more EW on Lexington Belle at 80/1…must be early season madness but I really like her.
I think True Cyan is going to run a big one but just can’t see Dance Sequence being beaten today…
Have to rush home from picking the
granddaughters up from school this
afternoon and watch the replay…good luck especially trying to get a nice return on this one..
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...April 17, 2024 at 15:02 #1690855I like the look of the favourite but at the prices have played Matrika
Blackbeard to conquer the World
April 17, 2024 at 15:35 #1690861True Cyan weak, looks small apparently. written off.
April 17, 2024 at 17:15 #1690873Well I got 4 furlongs of hope from
Lexington Belle, at least she had a go.Not sure what to make of Dance Sequence she never looked comfortable in the race and when she challenged her heart didnt seem to be in it. It’s hard to see that being a Guineas winning performance but the extra distance could help and not forgetting Sky Lantern was beaten by Hot Snap in 2013 and went onto Guineas success.
So far it’s been a disappointing start to the flat for me with nice but low profile horses winnng the big races so far and no real clues to the Classics to come. Hoping tomorrow when I’m actually there it will turn around and we see some exciting prospects turning out.
Keeping positive as the bookies go home laughing for a second day.. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...April 17, 2024 at 17:28 #1690875Always difficult this time of year Jac, 3 year olds especially. had sweet f-all today at HQ but some nice results at Cheltenham The excitement of the flat starting can be dulled by over-betting but I like the ones for tomorrow. Have fun on course, weather looks set fair although not the warmest of days.
April 17, 2024 at 17:37 #1690877Thanks Chivers Certainly not losing heart it’s all very exciting and yes tomorrow’s card looks promising.
I did put a single bet on Ottoman Fleet after the treble went down and it was nice to have a winner. I’ll get back at the bookies tomorrow it’s different when you’re there.
Well done with your Cheltenham bets Chivers the jumps are still taking centre stage at the moment. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...April 17, 2024 at 17:39 #1690878Talked myself into betting today, bad move will just be watching tomorrow.
"Life is timeless, days are long when you're young"
April 19, 2024 at 09:27 #1691012Both the Nell Gwyn and Craven Stakes were won by those who danced a few dances at two, their experience clearly a benefitting factor against less streetwise rivals.
I would be very surprised if Dance Sequence didn’t rate higher than the winner come end of season. She has yet to venture away from HQ, and it would be interesting to see her not only stepped up in trip but compete on a flatter track. Was she looking for a reason to duck behind the winner, or is she still displaying immaturity? I’m willing to give this scopey filly a chance and think the potential is there to compete at the business end of Group 1s before seasons end.
In conclusion, I think we witnessed early season three years old getting the better of those that will be seen to greater effect from Royal Ascot onwards.
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
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