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There doesn’t appear to be a thread for this race – the plodathon – one of my favourites as it’s done me some very good turns via the likes of Rith Dubh, Teaforthree, Chicago Grey and Midnight Prayer.
Jocks count for a lot here and my main bet this year is Noble Endeavor with Jamie Codd up. Was a belting second to Killultagh Vic in the Martin Pipe last year and Gordon Elliott knows what’s needed for this race.
Of the Mullins runners I much prefer Measureofmydreams with Katie Walsh up to Pont Alexandre. Not sure the latter is the horse he was 3-4 years ago when he was hyped up as a future star. I may save on Katie tomorrow.
Nina rides Southfield Vic and this one also looks a dour stayer who should be thereabouts, whilst Derek O’Connor gets the leg up on Minella Rocco. He’s sure to get a good tow along and has also looked a proper stayer but hasn’t looked comfortable in his runs at Cheltenham. Both Definitly Red and Native River were well beaten in last year’s brutal Albert Bartlett and if there’s a fast pace here that suggests to me they may not see it out. I’d be more willing to give the Tizzard horse the benefit of the doubt though.
Ballychorus has produced some really solid efforts this season and if her jumping holds together she has more going for her than a lot of these imo, comes into the race in good form, looks a strong stayer and improving. 12/1.
I like Ballychorus in this. Jumping is a concern however not out of the frame when completing over fences. Was running a mighty race when tipping up at the last in the Paddy Power over Christmas and gets the 7lb mares allowance. The other one I like is Vieux Lion Rouge, another not out of the frame in completed chases who also has an entry in the Midlands National. Outpaced by a decent sort LTO the up in distance could suit this one down to the ground at around the 25/1 mark.
My A/P play in this, Vintage Vinnie, will no doubt blunder any chance away.
I put up Minella Rocco for this months ago (though in the interest of balance, I also put him up for everything bar the boat race) and it’s good to see he’s made it. I’ve not done nearly as many A/P Mug 15’s, 31’s this year, but I do have a couple with Rocco at 10’s and 14’s, so hopeful he can kick them off as this is the only race of Day 1 that features on them. Looked perfect for this in The Reynoldstown, and with a Top Jock booked up, and from connections who know how to win this, he looks a worthy favourite.
Noble Endeavour just missed out on giving me a much needed winner at last years festival, when going down narrowly to Kilultagh Vic, and he looks primed for a big run here. As you said GD, it was a belting run. Kept an eye on him all winter, and he’s been brought along nicely. Deserves his place at the front of the market, and Jamie Codd could easily land this for the second year on the trot.
Best renewal of this for some time, and there’s dangers lurking everywhere, with particular interest in the already mentioned Measureofmydreams & Ballychorus.
Cracking race in prospect.
GL
I am taking on Black Hercules this week, so the form of his race is something I’m keen to attack. I’d hate to back a son of Shantou over 4 Miles, so Measureofmydreams is out of the question for me. Noble Endeavor is not a certain stayer either.
Minella Rocco looks bottled-up at the prices given his clumsy nature. I think Southfield Theatre has a solid shout as a certain stayer and safe jumper with a touch of class. He held Native River around Kempton (which would suit neither horse perfectly) and can be upgraded given that he jumped left throughout. Nina Carberry is a big plus too of course. He’s my main bet.
Local Show is an interesting outsider, possibly overlooked given his less sexy jockey booking. His level of form is very high indeed, with his win over Onenightinvienna looking rather impressive in hindsight. His jumping is a weapon and he is arguably the strongest stayer in the field.
Native River’s jumping and attitude leave plenty to be desired and I can’t see why he would reverse form with Southfield Theatre.
Two bets PONT ALEXANDRE and VICENTE
I proper fancy these two and have been backing them for two weeks solid!!
All about Pont Alexandre for me,surprised he’s so big, looks a complete and utter boat to my eyes and race will suit perfectly. Paddy Mullins isn’t as good as say a Codd,DOC or Nina but he can sure ride so won’t be a hinderance to the horse anyway.
DEFINITLY RED looks the right type for this. He’s won at the course and was
fancied a bit for the Albert Bartlett last year, but that didn’t work out and
he was pulled up. His 2nd to Black Hercules at Warwick 2 races back reads quite
well now, and although getting the distance has to be taken on trust, I think
the better ground will benefit him to manage that. 16/1 looks a decent e/w bet.VINCENTE for P Nicholls at 14/1 is of interest too.
I was on the fourth horse and i noticed bet365 are only paying three places? How can any bookmaker possibly justify just paying three places in a 20 runner novice chase!?
WELL DONE VTC !!!!
Think Vicente might have been a little unlucky not to be placed but hey ho !!
Well done Bobby, I hope your acca’s, starting with Minella Rocco, go on to
fill your pocketsThanks guys, 3rd year in a row in this race for me, quickly becoming my new Kim Muir lol. Now only if I could say that about some of the others (well most of them lol)
Cheers G, Very happy to get the Mug 15, Acca, off to a flier, but we know how it’ll end haha.
I was on the fourth horse and i noticed bet365 are only paying three places? How can any bookmaker possibly justify just paying three places in a 20 runner novice chase!?
Non handicap races are 3 places but worth checking oddschecker and the place terms as some do pay 4th and some cases 5th place
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