National Hunt Chase 2014

[Anonymous]

There’s four that interest me, I’ve looked at trends (7 and 8 year olds do very well) and course form. The four I like are –

1) Banaslow (25/1)
2) Black Thunder (12/1)
3) Holywell (10/1)
4) Shutthefrontdoor (6/1)

In no rush to place a bet though, so shall wait to find out if they’re going to turn up in this race. Also need to reseach the odds of recent winners to find out whether it’s worth looking for big value in the outsiders (aka Banaslow who will be better on gd/soft)

[sketti]

I’m keen on Blackthunder and Shutthefrontdoor too. Hitting them both up. Seems to be the top 6 or so on OR’s will have it between them.

[The Young Fella]

I see

Shutthefrontdoor

has Strong Gale in his blood. That’s an instant no-no in four milers.

I’ve got it down to Foxrock, Shotgun Paddy and Merlin’s Wish.

Foxrock

has a similar profile to last year’s winner Back In Focus. He has run with great credit in some of the best staying novice events in Ireland and looks like a horse built for four miles. He just grinds on and on.

Shotgun Paddy

pulled off the admirable feat of bringing back Carruthers once that horse got an early lead in the Classic Chase. That is not an easy thing to do, especially around Warwick. He makes the odd mistake, which is a worry, but has one of the best jockeys to compensate. Shotgun Paddy is already better than some winners of this race ever were.

Merlin’s Wish

is a bit of a speculative one, but at least has proven stamina for this trip. There was no shame in his loss to Sun Cloud last time, with that race coming soon after another marathon chase win. Sun Cloud was travelling with some menace in the Eider before he fell, too.

Bets

Foxrock TO WIN

and

Merlin’s Wish each-way

[TomBarkley87]

I see

Shutthefrontdoor

has Strong Gale in his blood. That’s an instant no-no in four milers.

Teaforthree?

[The Young Fella]

Always an exception to the rule.

I forgot about him though.

[TomBarkley87]

:oops: Always an exception to the rule.

I forgot about him though.

I’ll let you off

[MarkTT]

Nice run from Midnight Prayer !

advised it on my blog

[stilvi]

I don’t know what Derek O’Connor was doing on the second. Made so many mistakes I thought they had smuggled AP into the amateur race. It is mystifying why he would choose to hold up a horse whose main asset is his stamina. Even then he could still have won had he not chose to sit still over the last.

[befair]

Scandalous ride on Suntiep; Laying off the pace is one thing, but this was ridiculous

[moehat]

Backed Shotgun Paddy win only [and I never back win only, because, whenever I do they come second].

[Author]

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