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“shoe in for the arc”
Ballydoyle have a few 12f candidates for the Arc, they won’t run them all.
She certainly dispelled any thoughts she doesn’t stay 12f. The form of the pretty polly looked very good at the time and looks tremendous now. Very athletic filly who looks ideal for the arc. What do the lads do now with them surely wanting to win the arc with a colt. Minnie hawk must be some filly too.
I think the 10F Prix de L’Opera on Arc weekend would be the more obvious option for her as for one I see 10F as her optimal trip (she stayed 12F well enough but the Oaks has been her only try at the trip) and two I don’t think her front running style is condusive to winning an Arc.
They would also have the option of the Juddmonte, Yorkshire Oaks, the English and Irish Champion Stakes (she is entered for all those bar the English Champion Stakes and she even has an entry for the 1m Matron Stakes too) and then there is also both the Filly & Mare Turf races at Ascot and the Breeders Cup to consider.
I seriously doubt she will go 12F again as Minnie Hauk looks the natural at that trip of the two, especially given that all her runs this season have been over that trip and she even has an entry for the Irish St Leger. She is short priced for the Yorkshire Oaks so that will likely be her next race as a potential stepping stone to the Arc.
Regarding the flag start. It was terrible.
Regarding the reason for it I believe that the CoC actually said with the lightning about we don’t want them out there too long and trying to load them into the stalls would take up more time.
I have seen more complaints from a 2m+ jumps race where people have complained about losing lengths at an uneven start. They did not appear to even try to get them lined up.
Aidan hinted whirl may go to the champions stakes at Ascot in October. Must be a snip especially if it’s very soft. I wonder if it will be the opera then ascot then the breeders Cup. She’s a very good filly.
Also you don’t want to be trying to put horses into starting stalls made of stainless steel with lightning flashing in the immediate area plus they said had they not already started to make their way to the start the horses would have returned back to the stables from the paddock until the lightning had left the area
In the end I am not sure it made that much material difference to the result to be fair as the only one that really wanted to lead was Ryan. Bedtime Story always needs to be settled so it made no difference that she gave up that many lengths at the start and See The Fire is also a hold up horse so not much of an issue because she was always going to be dropped in as well. She wasn’t good enough and her best form is on a much quicker surface too.
Optically, I agree it looked rather haphazard and ragged but it was exceptional circumstances and you could argue that the jockeys needed to be a bit more aware that things are very different under a flag start.
Agree LD73. It wasn’t an apprentice handicap. If experienced professional jockeys can’t cope with a flag start, owners need to be looking elsewhere. It is a rare occurrence but adapting to extraordinary circumstances sorts the mediocre from the great jocks.
Why wont they run the two fillies mike? They have often ran multiple first strings in the arc? 2016 they had a 1/2/3…. That performance on “soft” puts her to the front of the order imo
Not forgetting the fact that aiden knows. She should have won the oaks… if anyone stays local, ittl be MH imo as they know shes not quite as good
“They would also have the option of the Juddmonte”
She can’t run in the Juddmonte, that’s the “Delacroix- not a NH sire!” race. They can’t risk her beating him. If he is ill or injured and can’t run, perhaps she would run there in order to stop anyone else’s stallion prospect winning (oh and try to win herself obviously).
“Why wont they run the two fillies mike? They have often ran multiple first strings in the arc? 2016 they had a 1/2/3…. That performance on “soft” puts her to the front of the order imo”
Not saying she definitely won’t, I said she might not. AOB was paying compliments to Minnie Hawk yesterday following Whirl winning the race, when asked if Whirl was the best in the Oaks and should’ve won the Oaks AOB said Ryan was always confident his horse would pick Whirl up, and that she has a very high cruising speed. They also got Los Angeles who hasn’t got anywhere else to go really. And there’s Jan Brueghel. Lambourn big possible for Arc if he wins the Voltigeur. Continuous could be chucked in it like last year. All these horses look like at least 12f horses, whereas Whirl can do 10f as well as 12f so it’s possible Whirl could go elsewhere, it depends what ‘the lads’ want to do :o)
Trying to make all the running in a soft or heavy ground Arc……I don’t think that kind of attritional race over 12F will suit her and personally I don’t think she is better than Minnie Hauk either, MH only seems to do just enough and it was interesting to hear Aidan’s comments on her:
“Minnie Hauk is a great traveller and you probably won’t see the best of her until she goes up in class against older horses when the tempo is strong. She has a very high cruising speed and we haven’t seen that in her races but we have at home. Even when she followed this filly at Epsom, she was finding it easy”
Now I know you can always take a lot of what he says with a healthy pinch of salt but the fact is that MH is still open to more improvement as she has much less racing experience than Whirl (run four times less) and I think 12F is her optimal trip…..clearly the Yorkshire Oaks will tells us a bit more about her as she is likely to face older horses for the first time.
The arc trials will tell us a bit more. Its a wide open arc so I can see at least ballydoyle runners. I can see them leaving whirl in till they see the going. She will definitely handling softish ground as will Lambourn.With kalpana there as well could be the girls fighting out the finish which wouldn’t be a shock if you check the stats for the last decade or so.
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