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On the basis that NATD has had 13 runners in the past week, including a 14/1 winner, hence showing a level-stake profit, can I start backing his horses again?
7 of the 13 have been pulled up. The other five were beaten 17, 21, 26, 27 and 66 lengths.
That Towcester winner was a recent recruit to his yard.
Don’t think there’s any compelling evidence yet that the stable is about to turn the corner.
That Towcester winner was a recent recruit to his yard.
Winner of an Irish point in November, I understand. If he was bought out of that race and came over immediately he’ll still have done well to avoid what’s been eating the yard.
Nevertheless, I agree with your overall sentiments. I’ll be taking the win of Kilvergan Boy as a positive for the horse rather than the stable.Don’t worry – there won’t be a daily update.
Its just that he had 10 runners yesterday.
3 PU
The others beaten
8.5
10.5
16
20
30
40
137+ lengths.If memory serves correctly, did he have a very successful spell during the Summer and early autumn? If so, has the handicapper caught up with the yard? From the few I was backing late Autumn they appeared to be running well up until the business end of their races and at the time my thought processes included:-
a) Not well or fit enough to do themselves justice.
b) Waiting for a lower handicap mark.
c) My bad judgement of their ability.Perhaps a combination of all three. Unless you know differently.
From some years ago though, I do recall him going through a lean spell but then when he bounced back they came thick and fast, 33/1 shots across the card etc.
Wait until he’s got a few running at various meetings on the same day and then hit them with trebles etc.The winner he had a few days ago was the first since the Hennessy meeting.
Obviously, I am keeping an eye on the situation because I too want to go in hard, but not prematurely.
I’ll have another look on Friday (payday). Until then any of his winners are yours.
Tricky Trickster ran pretty much up to form yesterday. But quite a few have been travelling well then finding nothing at the business end. Battlecry for instance. Perhaps it’s the first green shoots of recovery…
Since the year 2000 his record in February is 51 winners from 420 runners (12.1%), producing a level stakes loss of £87. September remains the best month to back the yard blind – 57/165, +£95.16 (57.7%). July also produced a small profit.
Backing his handicap chasers in February did produce a profit of 8.7% (improving to 13.4% in Class 2 or lower company).
Do you have his stats for March Mounty? I’m still backing imperial commander despite this downturn, mostly because I have this (Probably flawed) belief that he normally re-discovers his form in March in time for cheltenham…
March stats as follows…
45 winners from 466 runners (9.7%)
Level stakes loss of £143.12 (-30.7%)
Cheltenham Festival record since 2000 is 3 from 88 (-£47). However, that improves to 3/24, +£17.00 (+70.8%) when only considering runners with an SP of less than 20-1 (Ballyfitz 18-1, Fundamentalist 12-1 and Rubhahunish 8-1).
Very disappointing run from Hunters Ploy. His Rory Boy has been very well backed this morning in the 4:00 race, will be interesting to see how that pans out.
March stats as follows…
45 winners from 466 runners (9.7%)
Level stakes loss of £143.12 (-30.7%)
Cheltenham Festival record since 2000 is 3 from 88 (-£47). However, that improves to 3/24, +£17.00 (+70.8%) when only considering runners with an SP of less than 20-1 (Ballyfitz 18-1, Fundamentalist 12-1 and Rubhahunish 8-1).
Thanks Mounty – i’ve got a 12.5% chance about a horse I’ve backed at 18-16/1… Could be worse, particularly when taking that horses course and distance record into account.
Theory: Surely some of his handicappers which missed the start of the season (ie the period when everything from the yard was running pretty close to the best of their ability), and have been running for the last couple of months will be very well handicapped – either late this season or the start of the next. The horses running for the last few weeks/months aren’t running anywhere close to their potential, and the handicappers will be rated below what they are capable of.
Maybe this is part of the reason the yard has a barnstorming autumn every year!
I’d say there’s much more of a "herd health" aspect to it than that- his level weights contenders don’t fare much better in his quiet periods. Noel Meade seems to suffer from the same malaise. It’s far more likely that there’s some environmental factor causing a low-grade respiratory problem which doesn’t affect general health but decreases peak performance. At least he can’t blame oilseed rape this time of year!
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