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Myboycharlie

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  • #4895
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Typical bookmaker reaction yesterday with all the firms slashing the price of Myboycharlie to as short as 7/1 for next years 2,000 gns.
    I note they have not offered any longer odds on the current 1st and 2nd ante post favs for the Guineas.

    Although it won the Prix Morny very easily what did the form from that race show us apart from it can go in soft ground?

    It is not likely to encounter ground such as it raced on yesterday in the Guineas (but with the recent weather we have faced I could be wrong) but this horse was well beat in the Coventry Stakes and so far to me looks well behind Winker Watson and Henrythenavigator, who of course is also owned by Coolmore.

    Some of the Irish form does not look that strong either.(IMHO)

    It has a decent but not outstanding pedigree (sold for £25,000 gns at Doncaster) in the same sale I think that Henrythenavigator was withdrawn from and sold privately to John Magnier.

    I suppose it will stay on with Tommy Stack to prepare for next season as both families are related and if Fallon is back next year I suspect he will be on Henry at Newmarket.

    I also dont know why the former West Ham football syndicate should have decided to recently sell the horse to Coolmore as if it is as good as Tommy Stack thinks it is they could have got a lot more for it today than they did a month ago.
    I dont think its a horse that Godolphin would go after though given that there is a very strong Irish connection with this horse.

    #111800
    Gareth Flynn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 583

    Myboycharlie didn’t run in the Coventry; he’s now unbeaten in three.

    I thought it was a very strong performance yesterday, although Winker Watson’s withdrawal was a shame

    #111801
    Tony25
    Member
    • Total Posts 327

    From a betting point of view i was relieved Winker Watson didn`t run as i thought it was a two horse race and on withdrawel it became a solo!!

    With regards to MYBOYCHARLIE he looks to be a serious tool, he was toying with a decent filly yesterday, however, being by Danetime and watching his style of running im convinced he`s a real sprinter , i for one would be worried about the Guiness trip!!

    I couldn`t understand the withdrawel of Winker as the going hadn`t deteriated that much,still, a great days racing in Deauville!!

    #111803
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    This was a very impressive performance and this horse will win the middle park if it lines up which would appear the more viable option as Henry appears to get the 7f of the dewhurst already.

    I agree with Tony, he may not get the guineas trip but I was very very impressed by this performance. He pulled Fallons arms out for the first 2-3f and still quickened clear easily, staying on strongly all the way to the line. The filly in second looks a good animal as well and I don;t think winker would have beaten this horse anyway (I would have preferred him to line up so the prices would have been better)

    He looks a better animal than Henry to me and this reinforces the comments already made on this board that coolmore are feeling the effects of Danehills departure with their 2yo’s. Not sure he’s a guineas winner but he will be difficult to beat over 6-7f, especially with cut.

    #111805
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    Typical bookmaker reaction yesterday with all the firms slashing the price of Myboycharlie to as short as 7/1 for next years 2,000 gns.
    I note they have not offered any longer odds on the current 1st and 2nd ante post favs for the Guineas.

    Although it won the Prix Morny very easily what did the form from that race show us apart from it can go in soft ground?

    It is not likely to encounter ground such as it raced on yesterday in the Guineas (but with the recent weather we have faced I could be wrong) but this horse was well beat in the Coventry Stakes and so far to me looks well behind Winker Watson and Henrythenavigator, who of course is also owned by Coolmore.

    Some of the Irish form does not look that strong either.(IMHO)

    It has a decent but not outstanding pedigree (sold for £25,000 gns at Doncaster) in the same sale I think that Henrythenavigator was withdrawn from and sold privately to John Magnier.

    I suppose it will stay on with Tommy Stack to prepare for next season as both families are related and if Fallon is back next year I suspect he will be on Henry at Newmarket.

    I also dont know why the former West Ham football syndicate should have decided to recently sell the horse to Coolmore as if it is as good as Tommy Stack thinks it is they could have got a lot more for it today than they did a month ago.
    I dont think its a horse that Godolphin would go after though given that there is a very strong Irish connection with this horse.

    Seagull,

    First of all, regarding the betting – I would have thought that you knew that’s how ante post betting works. If a horse in an ante post market puts up a good effort, the price is likely to shrink – if a horse in an ante post market puts up a poor effort, then it’s odds can get bigger. What very rarely happens in ante post betting is the price of one horse is affected by the price of another. It’s not as if it’s 30 minutes before the race where one horse gets well backed so others drift – there are 8 months before the race and the bookies are spot on in reducing the price of Myboycharlie after yesterdays performance while at the same time leaving the others on the same price.

    Regarding your form assessment, then I am not sure where you are coming from here – the horse is unbeated and never ran in the Coventry Stakes (Warsaw was the one the flopped there), in fact Myboycharlie hasn’t put a foot wrong yet, slamming his rivals on all 3 outings so far. I think it’s too early to say "what did the form from that race show up" regarding yesterdays race. The horse can only beat what’s put in front of him, and he did start the race as favourite so was expected to win.

    And finally, i’m not having a go at you personally – but to say it has a decent but not outstanding pedigree has absolutely no relevance whatsoever now, as the horse has now proven it has ability regardless of it’s breeding. Breeding is very important I agree, but form is a far better guide believe me. If you see a horse in a race with a poor pedigree that has won all it’s races easily, you wouldn’t dismiss it’s chances purely on pedigree would you? As an unraced horse, pedigree might tell you the possible ability of a horse, it might tell you it’s likely optimum distance, it might tell you it’s preferred ground – but once a horse gets form in the book and proves what it can do, then that is a better guide than the pedigree in my opinion.

    Just my thoughts,

    Mike

    #111806
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    so far to me [Myboycharlie] looks well behind Winker Watson and Henrythenavigator

    I have no idea how you can come to that conclusion. Perhaps the same way that you discovered that the horse was beaten at Royal Ascot when it didn’t even run there.

    #111812
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Seconded. I’d watch the race from yesterday if you haven’t already whilst bearing in mind it was a G1. Neither Winker or Henry have won a G1 yet, Henry having been beaten on his only attempt.

    Personally purely on visuals I think Henry is a way behind the other two. 6f on good ground i’m really not sure who would win between charlie and watson.

    Personally I don;t think any of them will win the guineas.

    #111827
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3772

    Good performance from Myboycharlie – though the two year old which most excites me most at this point is Godophin’s Rahy colt, Rio De La Plata.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #111829
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Having tipped him up for the Guineas last week (see lays and plays) I was more chuffed than most with his performance and the reduction in his odds afterwards. I would say he is now fairly priced, with the post-race 12-1 perhaps still just value. I think he’ll get a mile standing on his head given how stongly he stayed on at the Curragh over an extended 6 in the worst flat ground I’ve seen. Better ground is an unknown, but a mile on anything but very fast ground should be OK.
    My feeling after the Curragh was that he had been underestimated because of the ground, it’s good to see that continues to be the case!

    #111849
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Are you concerned with the record of Danetimes at further than sprint distances?

    89% of the wins by 3yo offspring of the sire in Britain have been at less than a mile.

    #111857
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    He looks an unlikely stayer to me. Danetime was a sprinter and he sires sprinters.

    On the subject of Myboycharlie’s pedigree, they say it’s a sign you’re getting old when it strikes you how young police officers are beginning to look. The horse racing equivalent is when you remember backing the great granddam of a Classic contender. Icing, trained by Paddy Prendergast, carried my money in the 1975 Argos Star Fillies Mile and went in at 5/1 under a – presumably very youthful – Christy Roche. I was a child punter, of course.

    #111877
    Venusian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1665

    His pedigree strongly suggests to me that 7f will be an absolute,maximum for him.

    Danetime is an influence for sprinting speed, and there’s little in his dam’s stud record to suggests she can fill the gap, stamina-wise, in her son.

    #111880
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    The record of Danetime’s recent classy progeny Vital Equine (placed in the Guineas ridden prominently) and Dimenticata give me hope, his race record so far gives me more. I’d be amazed if he doesn’t get 7 as a 2yo, and he might just stretch to a mile next year.

    #111882
    Venusian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1665

    But Vital Equine’s bottom line is packed with stamina.

    #111883
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4811

    Off the point I know but was Barney Curley ever involved with this horse at any stage? The reason I ask is the close link between Tommy Stack and Barney and Charlie is the name of the latters now deceased son tragically killed in a car crash a few years ago at a young age.

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