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Well, what do you know!!
Tentsmuir 2nd @ 12/1<br>Nat Gold 1st @ 8/1 ( I took an early price)
Overall profit £34.20.
Is this worth an entry in the systems section of the Forum ??
John.
Johncockerill,<br>Well done glad you made a profit. <br>Please send my commision in a brown envelope (lol)<br>I keep a record of ALL bets win or lose.<br>Going back from 01-01-2002 until 31-12-2002<br>I had 127 ew doubles mainly at £100.00 e/w <br>from those bets 98 at least got my stake back mainly the 2 both getting placed (77.1%). From the 127 there were however 22 bets where they both won (17.3%). The total profit was £7,200 50. <br>From e/w trebles there were 67 from which 48 (77.1%) at least got all the stake back there were 11 where all won (16.4%) <br>The total profit was £4,873.67.
The system is based on the percentages of FAVS THAT DO NOT win and from a 6 month study I noted these percentages in races of up to 9 runners.<br>the strike rate for the fav wining was 43% but from races where there are more than 9 runners this drops to 23% <br>where the fav was odds on<br> from 294 odds on races ONLY 184 won a 63% strike rate but 37% odds on favs lost. So basically 2-3 odds on favs won and 1-3 lost. These 3rd favs getting placed in 8 -9 runner races are in fact odds on but due to many facts such as many on course bookies only bet win these bets are ignored in the actual place the market is formed i.e. the course. If and when the system is altered to ‘industry prices’ this will end.
I posted this method on the systems pages just after I joined this site.<br>I have not been able to make it work on any exchange and its just something that should be restricted to cash bets.<br>Many may not think it clever nicking the e/w value as it certainly does not need much study (or to join some tipping service) but I do not have any income except what I can make from betting.<br>All that happened in the end last Sunday was that another bookmaker had got fed up paying out and before I could meet my mates up the pub I had to walk to another betting shop.(No drinking and driving)
Darkknight: No, Bertie has not missed the point. I was simply expressing surprise that so many TRF members, instead of being outraged at  being knocked back,  appear to be overwhelmed by the largesse of the bookmaker who accepts each-way singles/multiples on 8-10 runner races where the outcome appears to be two against the field with a fairly clearly defined third favourite!
It’s a bit rich old boy, for punters to be excusing windy bookies! At this rate I can see you stomaching a return to the bad old days of a sixth the odds a place when the favourite starts on!
The impression given is that it’s just a question of finding a gullible bookie (eh!!! pardon???), lump on and collect! And the wail once more is ‘Bookie mugged by each-way bandit  again! Would that it was that easy!
And does this punting paradise apply to novice chases which meet the criteria? If so, then I suggest this road  leads not to riches but to Carey Street!
Seagull: thanks for very interesting stats.
And to the inestimable John Cockerill, I say well done, sir! Bertie salutes you!
But how about an example from the TRF experts from today’s fare?
And may I be so bold as to request that selections are posted in advance as Bertie suspects that, judging from this thread, one or two Forumites believe they reside in Shangri La but, in reality, are big in Cloud Cuckoo Land!
The 7.00 at Goodwood looks like a likely prospect, assuming all eight run. What’s the call for this would-be Each-Way Bandit?
Answers before 7.00 please as Hindsight isn’t running this weekend!
Toodle pip!<br>
I hope the administrators of the Forum do not mind (this thread should probably be in Tips or Systems) but just to keep things rolling I will invest yesterdays winnings on the following.
1.40. Epsom  Lady Bear<br>7.50. Perth   Big Wheel
£15 e.w.double
ps. Just placed the bet with sportingodds. LB @13/2, BW @ SP.
Wish me luck.
(Edited by johncockerill at 9:44 am on June 6, 2003)
John: Don’t think Admin will object to this one-off as it’s related to the EW Bandit theme.
Ian: to answer the question I posed, I think the EW value in the 7.00 Gdwd is Baraloti, a beaten favourite first time out who was practically left at the start. Plus, if likely favourite Tarbiyah is top-notch then how come Frankie can’t be bothered to ride it?
TDK: Strictly speaking, Flint River doesn’t conform to the criteria you outlined earlier.
I’m still waiting to be amazed at how easy it is to dupe those trusting bookie chappies!
Toodle pip!
John,
You are not getting superstitious again are you?:laugh:
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:
Whoops!!
Back to the drawing board.
Give it one more go:-
4.25. Worc.  Bacardi Boy<br>4.50. Donc.  Blue Spinnaker<br>Be Lucky
John.
p.s. The reason yesterdays didn’t get placed was because I didn’t hi-lite them in red. Me and my superstitions!!
p.p.s. Last post from me for a while as I go into hospital tomorrow for a total Knee replacement. Already had the other one replaced as well as a hip so I know whats coming!!
Bertie,
I think you’ll find thedarkknight’s reference to Flint River was slightly tongue in cheek (for obvious reasons), hence the " ;) ".  It’s highly debatable whether that race would have been suitable for each-way thievery anyway. It’s a maths thing, old chap.  Try working out the place book percentages on a race to see if it meets the criteria.
Believe it or not Rory, Bertie had actually gleaned that himself from TDK’s post.
But thanks, nonetheless, and may I say that it’s always such a joy and a comfort to the old rogue in his alcohol-induced permanent stupor, to know that BB can count on the gentle, guiding hand of one of TRF’s most eminent, albeit self-appointed, resident wise men when the mathematics of successful gambling prove too taxing for what remains of his raddled old brain!
<br>Of slightly more import though is the, as yet,  unmet challenge I issued last week in response to the fanciful notion that it’s perfectly understandable that bookmakers  knock back EW wagers in 8-10 runner races where it’s two against a field of rags but with an obvious 3rd place at a big price.
I asked for a successful example, in advance, without the benefit of hindsight, of this punting paradise, which you  enthusiastically endorsed, and which  apparently has Britain’s bookies trembling and shaking their heads as one.  Alas, I’m still waiting for an opportunity to jump on this gravy train!
Any chance of enlightenment, Rory, or that other Greatest Living Forumite, Ian … please!
Humble Bertie salutes you both!
JC: best wishes for a speedy return to TRF.
Always happy to be of service, Bertie!
You might find that the 4:00 at Redcar today has an overbroke place book, depending on how the tissue develops, but it’s decidedly borderline at the moment. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s not about finding the obvious horse to come ‘first of the rags’, but merely taking advantage of a mathematical anomaly which allows you to back every runner in a race in a way which guarantees a profit. How one utilises such a utopian premise is, of course, entirely up to the individual.
Excellent thread. Am I right that you look for the following :
– 8-9 runners<br>- Non-handicaps<br>- Odds on fav
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