- This topic has 11 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
I was at Sandown Park the day Emily Upjohn won that Novice Stakes for 3yo fillies by half the track.
She was impressive and I took the 8/1 for the Oaks.
But I felt a right muppet doing it, I’d no idea what she’d beaten and it later transpired the time was abysmal.
She goes into this York race on an OR of 99, about a stone short of Classic standard.
She’s up against a Newbury Maiden winner in Life Of Dreams, a couple of 2yo Novice winners and the one that really interests me.
Galway Maiden winner The Algarve is by that true great American Pharaoh out of Imagine, the Oaks/Irish Oaks winner and dam of an amazing ten winners.
And she’s from a yard which has suddenly taken over as the stable in rampant form.
I don’t see how she can possibly be 13/2.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Life of dreams and the algarve have some seriously good breeding don’t they
Fascinating little race
While I’m glad to have 8/1 the 13/8 favourite for the Oaks, like Mike I am unsure what she’s beaten, impressive though she was.
I’m rating her 102 on that – with a plus as she won readily.
I’m also on Tuesday at 10/1 and With The Moonlight at 8/1 and tbh I am just as happy with those bets.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"She’s the best 3yo filly iv seen so far this season
Looked like she was only getting going at the line despite being keen
Price is a disgrace though
I didn’t have a bet but would of been worried when she
was fighting for her head early on. Once settled, she
looked the winner.
As for the Oaks my only concern would be how she handles
the prelims and the course.Having now taken a good look at the times on the round course and taken ORs and weight-for-age scales into account, I think Emily Upjohn has clocked a pretty decent overall time.
The number I have given her wins the Oaks most years.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I prefer the 109 & 107 rated AOB horses atm who have run in Group 1s. Emily’s been beating horses rated in the 70s and then 80s so far yet she will probably go into the Oaks rated in the 100s. And a question mark whether she’ll settle/handle the course as well.
Don’t get that point at all. Only one horse she has beaten had a bha rating and that was an outsider
There simply isn’t enough to rate on but the field at sandown was all too stables/owners and doesn’t seem likely that they will all be duds.
Only two have run subsequently too. One winner but for me that rare powerful turn of foot makes her a total stand out
I used the RPR where there was no OR and did a reasonable estimation of present OR from that. I take your point that the horses she beat may not turn out to be all duds in the future.
Fair enough. Those ratings can quickly change of course. Even flipping around all the collateral form (which I like to do) is tricky because of gauging improvements.
thats why I like to go by what I see and judge races on what they are likely to be rather than confirmed to be. Newmarket Ascot and Sandown maidens littered with big stable runners are a plus for me
“I used the RPR where there was no OR.”
The BHA Handicapper doesn’t give horses an OR until they have run three times or won a race for a reason.
I find RPR often wildly inaccurate and generally much prefer the official figures.
The lack of horses with official figures before a race tells me there isn’t really much to go on so the overall race time often becomes my rough guide.
I think Emily Upjohn did a pretty good time on Wednesday relative to the other round course times that day.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.