Monday 19th March

[SELECTTIPS]

Market Rasen.<br>14:40 NORTONTHORPE LAD +1<br>15:10 GIDAM GIDAM +2<br>16:40 BROOK NO ARGUMENT +1<br>Wincanton.<br>14:00 GUYMUR +1<br>15:00 WARLORD +4<br>15:30 THEDREAMSTILLALIVE +4<br>16:30 NEYSAUTEUR +1<br>17:00 I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES +1<br>Southwell.<br>14:50 MUREE QUEEN +3<br>15:20 VICTORY QUEST +2<br>15:50 QUIET TIMES +1<br>16:20 ARCH OF TITUS +4<br>16:50 DON’T MIND ME +1<br>Gowran Park.<br>No Selections

Today’s Total Recommended Stakes = 26 points

Sunday’s List gave 1 winner from 10 selections (1n.r), a strike rate of 11%.<br>Highest s.p: 15/8<br>Lowest s.p: 15/8<br>Level Stakes Profit/Loss: – 6.13<br>Recommended Profit/Loss: – 14.63<br>March’s Stats.<br>65 winners from 261 selections (10n.r), a strike rate of 26%<br>Highest s.p: 14/1<br>Lowest s.p: 1/8<br>Level Stakes Profit/Loss: – 48.70<br>Recommended Profit/Loss: – 120.51

(Edited by SELECTTIPS at 8:23 am on Mar. 19, 2007)

[chammy]

Southwell 2.20<br>Zadalla could go well at a nice price in this small field. Won and placed over the C&D and may show more improvement. 11-2 win

Southwell 3.50<br>Mister Incredible has run here 9 times and only been out of the places twice. In great form over this C&D and should be his usual consistent self today to make the frame. 10-1 e/w

Southwell 4.50<br>Granakey gets another chance over his best distance. 7f appeared too short last time out but he passed several rivals in the straight after turning for home in last to finish 5th. 9-2 win

[Formath]

Dave – this is for you really. A procedure for assessing handicaps without compiling a rating figure.

4.30 Wincanton. Hcap chase class 3 (5yo+ 0-125)over 21f on going f/c Good with 13 runners.<br>RP indicates it is a race restricted to the winner from Nos 6, 12, 5, 1, 4, 11<br>It appears unbalanced as only 2 runners are in the bottom half of the weight division.<br>BHB indicates Nos 1-6 are below class, 8-10 in class, 11-13 above class.<br>RP betting f/c indicates Nos ‘not expected’ by hcap/probable odds – 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 and the f/c shows a regular increeas of 1.5 points out to the 5th fav and the a marked increase of 6 points.<br>Passing the field through 7 critical factors in descending order of priority indicates the following (where stars * are positive):<br>1 ?????**<br>2 *?**??? Toulouse – 178 days off track, has to get trip?<br>3 ???*?*?<br>4 ???*?**<br>5 ****??* Neysauteur – shorter trip?<br>6 ?***??* Mambo Des Mottes – may prefer softer? <br>7 *??*?*?<br>8 ???*???<br>9 ???????<br>10 ???*?*?<br>11 ???*???<br>12 ?*?*??*<br>13 ???*?*?

My opinion.<br>Nothing outstanding so probably a waste of time but saves a waste of money. At least I have had a look at it in depth.<br>Neysauteur has to be the one, but I would want 8/1, I think he is capable of a BHB 120 here.<br>Mambo Des Mottes does not always come up tp expectations and has not won this season. Needs 17/2 minimum to be considered.

If the yard was in form and also the horse, Marked Man with a possible BHB 133 would be of interest at 12/1<br>

(Edited by Formath at 2:33 pm on Mar. 19, 2007)

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