Modern breeding and stallions

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This topic contains 8 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by tbracing tbracing 1 month ago.

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  • #1452718
    dadofjess
    dadofjess
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    • Total Posts 8

    am getting more and more interested in breeding and the influence of the sire and dam on racehorses.Get a bit unclear when commentators /analysts talk about such and such a sire being sorted by soft ground etc..any advice on any books,websites.videos that are useful in giving out such information..thanks

    #1452720

    LostSoldier3
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    • Total Posts 1894

    The Racing Post and ATR websites provide generic information on stallions and their progeny history by ground description, recording wins, places, level stakes P&L, strike rate etc. You can also get something similar via the FlatStats website.

    ProForm is pricy but it is a much more powerful tool for scrutinising this stuff. I got it to give me a really detailed breakdown of every stallion with ‘impact value’ data for each stallion, showing you whether their progeny are running above or below expectation v Betfair SP on each going description. It also expresses this in terms of % of rivals beaten and gives you a clear idea of whether the market underrates or overrates the stallion in different conditions.

    Like I say, ProForm is an expensive tool but I *think* you can get a free trial or pay for a short subscription. It really blows all the Racing Post/ATR data out of the water and gives you a much deeper insight.

    #1452735
    befair
    befair
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    • Total Posts 995

    I have a very superficial knowledge of breeding, but avoid Shantou’s over fences + Warfront’s after the 2 yr old season. Am I right?

    #1452745
    Triptych
    Triptych
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    • Total Posts 8626

    This us an extremely informative site and free …a good back up to Racing Post, ATR and Sporting Life etc…

    https://thebreedingshed.wordpress.com

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1452751

    Colin Phillips
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    • Total Posts 8

    Try this http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/pages/racsir.php

    It’s free but is restricted to sires that have had 10 winners or more.

    I’ve had a look at the same approach as you but didn’t persevere with it. I think that the problem is that with some sires you will have only a small sample size and you also have to take into account of the dam and dam sire.

    Hope this helps.

    #1452760
    KevMc
    KevMc
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    That’s a cracker of a site, thanks for that Colin.

    Not sure if that was jest or not befair but War Front has had several go on, including US Navy Flag & Merchant Navy.

    Shantou one is a bit more of an opinion i’ve heard from a few places but Death Duty, Beware The Bear, Tully East & The Storyteller haven’t done too badly over fences with the last three all winning at the Fez over them.

    #1452761

    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1894

    The problem with Shantous isn’t really with fences, technique or anything like that. I spoke to a buyer whose opinion was that you need to add on a few grand to whatever you’re paying for a Shantou since you know they’ll probably need two or three wind procedures in their careers and they’ll just get worse and worse – typically a major issue with his stock.

    Maybe since most staying jumpers start chasing in their third season in training, it gives the impression of the fences being the problem.

    #1452765
    KevMc
    KevMc
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    • Total Posts 1071

    To be fair Pumpkin gives 99% of his horses regular wind-ops so i wouldn’t think it’s only consigned to Shantou progeny ;-)

    #1453785
    tbracing
    tbracing
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    • Total Posts 1341

    Horseracebase.com is a very good tool for database queries. Some sires progeny perform better on different surfaces. For instance, Pivotal’s often handle softer ground and can excel in such conditions. Dubawi is a great all round sire, but look at his statistics for first time runners at Southwell on the fibresand, he has a 28.13% strike rate there for first time runners there since 2009, even this year he has only had 5 first time runners there but still 3 winners with 4 placed. USA origin horses generally out perform other region bred horses at Southwell at something like 16.5% a good few points stronger than other pedigrees.

    A good site to query pedigree’s is pedigreequery.com – what’s noticeable in a lot of modern bred horses is there is a lot of inbreeding in modern day bred horses, for instance look at this, https://www.pedigreequery.com/amber+island2 You’ll notice he has Northern Dancer in his pedigree twice within the same 4th generation on the stallions side and again 5th generation on the dams side while Natalma appears 3 times on his stallions 5th generation.

    Have a read through this if pedigree’s interesting you https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index. Will help you make sense of pedigree query.

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