Meeting of the day

[RexWayne]

Bricoman,

I think you missed a 3/1 winner yesterday.

240 Wolverhampton Mynd 11/4 2f  (6) (AM 3 3*) +£150

Rex

[Bricoman]

Hi Rex,

Wolverhampton had 4 races under the JOINT TIPSTER rule, which at the moment are just being monitored.

1.10  Never Without Me (6 Tips) (2*10) (+£328)<br>2.10  Invergold (6 Tips) (-53) (-£139)<br>2.40  Mynd (6 Tips) (3*3) (+£169)<br>3.40  Repeat (8 Tips) (3*-26) (-£461)

Because we had 3 races having 6 tips each discounts the meeting for further analysis (at the moment).

To qualify for a 3* selection the horse in question has to have the largest number of Tipster selections (which would be 8 in this case)…it would also have to be a top rated AM selection and have an average prize money surplus for that meeting.

So under the present system that I’m working with…Never Without Me and Mynd were rated as 2*J picks, which do not qualify at present. Up to now, I have never had a 3*J selection and the record on 2*J picks has been about 90% losers.

I might just add that recently I have been getting a few 2* picks winning at decent odds with the main criteria being average surplus followed by AM top rating.

Nice to know that at least one person out there is checking my methods on selecting… cheers Rex.:biggrin:

Kindest regards

Brico

[MrE]

Nice one Rex, I’m glad somebody is keeping an eye on him…….<br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:

MrE

[RexWayne]

Hi Bricoman,

Thanks for the helpful and detailed response. I guess I fluked a winner. I like the strike rate of this system. Thanks for sharing.

Rex

[Bricoman]

3.00 Ascot  Caracciola  (9 tips)(4*26)(+£2255) 3* Pick…Non-Runner…again!

Also Inglis Drever is a 2* pick but I won’t be backing it..:(

(Edited by Bricoman at 4:18 pm on Jan. 10, 2004)

[Bricoman]

2.40 Wolv  Honest Injun (12)(1*20)(+£325) 3* pick…Won 4/9F (managed to get 2.30 on BF this morning)…:biggrin:

(Edited by Bricoman at 4:08 pm on Jan. 12, 2004)

[Ollie]

Bricoman,<br>Well done on your system, I shall also keep an eye on your progress as well as Daz’s.<br>I couldn’t help but sympathise going through your thread was that one of your few losers was on the day your mates were going to the track, life can be a bitch sometimes!<br>One thing puzzles me slightly are the star ratings your overall perception of the strength of the selection, rather than anything to do with AM ratings?<br>cheers<br>Ollie

[RexWayne]

Ollie, I believe that Bricoman uses the following star ratings:-

1star = either most selections, top AM, or above average value;

2 star = any two of the above;

3 star = all three of the above.

My guess is that tomorrows selection will be one of the following 3 Star selections:

200 Leicester Keltic Bard 2/1 f (11), 62 4*, +12<br>310 Sedgefield Jordan’s Ridge 4/1 2f (8), 45 5*, +504

Rex

[Bricoman]

Hi Ollie & Rex,

I’ll try and explain where we are at present…

1* pick = Above average surplus (AAS)<br>2* pick = AAS and either Top AM or Most Tipsters<br>3* pick = ALL THREE

TIPSTER SLECTIONS:

I have only been selecting from the meetings with TWO CLEAR top tipster picks, so if we have TWO races at a meeting with say 12 & 11 tips and the other races have lower tips, then we concentrate on these races. If we have a meeting with say 12, 11 & 11 or 12, 12 & 11 then these would be classed as JOINT PICK RACES and are only being MONITORED at the moment.

At Leic today we have (8) (11) (8) (Joint Pick Meeting)<br>At Sedg we have (8) (10) (8) (Again..Joint Pick Meeting)<br>At S’Well we have (10) (8) so this meeting would qualify if either race has an above average surplus.

Jordan’s Ridge becomes a 2*Joint Pick and my very first 3* joint pick (EVER) is Keltic Bard…so I will be sitting back and watching ONLY today.

I generally find that roughly half of the selections win on any given day. So I would say Keltic Bard has an excellent chance.

Won…11/8F (Good Start…1/1 for 3*J picks):)

Thanks for your interest, lads. Just hope I can continue with the strike rate.:biggrin:

Regards

Brico

(Edited by Bricoman at 4:36 pm on Jan. 13, 2004)

[Ollie]

Bricoman and Rex,

Very many thanks for your comments, the RP today (which sadly I didn’t get a copy of) must have had more complete selection boxes than those on the website last night! <br>I’m not complaining though as I worked out last night (like Rex) that Keltic Bard was the likely selection and backed it at almost 2/1 on Betfair (thanks Brico!)<br>If you’re interested in my (possibly erroneous) workings out:

Last night:<br>Leic: Keltic Bard 10 picks, Real Shady 8 picks.

Sedgefield: Be my valentine 8, Lord Alyn 9 and Jordan’s Ridge 8 therefore discounted.

Southwell: Glory Quest 10, Najabba 8 (but discounted as prize money below average for meeting)

Does that make sense?<br>Cheers <br>Ollie<br>

[Bricoman]

Ollie,

I use the online version also and have noticed that sometimes tipsters are added overnight because when I check in the morning things change. When the Selection Boxes are completed you will notice that X’s are added to tipsters that don’t tip. Also make sure that you count every tip and don’t take the total tips figure as completely accurate. You seem to have it sussed but double check the tips in the morning to make sure that none of your Star picks havn’t turned into JOINT STAR overnight.

There are only two joint tips on offer today but one of them is a our 2nd 3* Joint pick since I started monitoring…

3.10 Wolv Pilgrim Progress (11)(3*65)(+£193)…3*JP<br>2.35 Wolv lle Facile (7)(58)(+£4)…2*JP

THERE ARE NO 3* NORMAL PICKS!<br>So I won’t be rolling over previous bets today!

Thanks for your thoughts Ollie.

Regards

Brico

[mallyb]

Hi Bricoman,

Just had a glance through your post. An interesting angle you’ve taken for winner finding i must say…however…

Boy oh! Boy oh !……i must be a thicky or something !! cause i’m sure as hell confused.

Looking at the online RP sel box for Wolverhampton this morning i see the following:

Most clear pick the 15:10 selection with 11 picks,<br>THREE other selections, 13:30,14:35,16:10 all joint on 7picks.

Going according to your intitial page 1 filter rules i make this a NO BET DAY.

Is this correct ?

I see you’ve posted TWO jt picks for today….in that respect…that’s why i’m confused:o

cheers<br>Mally<br>

(Edited by mallyb at 10:16 am on Jan. 14, 2004)

[Bricoman]

Hi mally,

You are right! There was NO selection today at Wolverhampton. Where the confusion comes in is that I am only MONITORING the progress of any JOINT PICK meetings. I simply posted up the 3* JOINT selection because of Ollie & Rex’s post about Keltic Bard.

There can be several days in between proper 3* picks so I just thought it would relieve the boredom to post the 3* Joint pick…but I did state that I would not be placing any bets today.

Sorry about the confusion..

Regards

Brico

[Ollie]

Bricoman,

I think the bit that can get confusing is in determining the surplus and best meeting for the selection.

For example based on current selection box criteria (I accept these may fill up overnight) we have:

Catt (average prize money 3359)<br>Super sammy 8 picks, race value 3981<br>Gary’s pimpernel 9 oicks race value 2023

Ling (average prize money 1495)<br>2.10 yankeedoodle dandy 10 picks race value 1641<br>4.10 9 picks race value 1267

Southwell (average 4010)<br>1.00 The Fisio 8 picks Race value 4046<br>1.30 Magic mammas 10 picks (race value 2905)

In this situation where there are 2 clear picks, I’m not clear how you derive a shortlist when all three meetings have only one race above average prize money value (ie surplus), are the ones below average discounted from further analysis or are both races at that course discounted if one of them has no surplus?<br>If one can count then Yankeedoodledandy might qualify at Lingfield as it is an AM 3 star top?<br>Cheers and sorry to be such a pain!<br>Ollie<br>

(Edited by Ollie at 9:51 pm on Jan. 14, 2004)

[RexWayne]

Ollie,

I think Bricoman will say that neither of the Catterick horses will be selections because they are both not top rated by Massey.

He will also eliminate the 410 Lingfield race because Broughton knows is also not top rated by AM.

Likewise Fisio for the Southwell meeting.

In short you must look at Adrian Massey. If a horse is not top rated by massey it cannot be a 3 star selection.

<br>Rex

[Bricoman]

Ollie,

Looks like we have had a problem with the TRF site all morning…just managed to get it after a couple of hours of trying.:)

There is no confusion whatsoever…first of all I look for any meeting with TWO CLEAR PICKS…I then add up the prize money at each meeting and find the average…then I go to AM’s site and see if any of these qualifying selections are top rated.:biggrin:

IF we have the MOST picks with a SURPLUS and it is rated TOP AM…then we have a NORMAL 3* selection and I will be using it as part of the ROLLING DOUBLES using MrE’s Ratchet Staircase System.

I DO note down any meetings with Joint selections, and today LINGFIELD & SOUTHWELL are BOTH joint pick meetings…I don’t discount them…I just monitor them.

Keltic Bard was my first 3* JOINT pick, so I was impressed when it won…Pilgrim Progess was another 3* JOINT pick yesterday but it came 5th @ 13/8F.

I never put Keltic Bard forward as a bet and likewise with Pilgrim Progress… they were distractions from my main aim of achieving the best strike rate that I can (ie; 3* NORMAL PICKS.)

OVERNIGHT…comparing your initial SB picks…Lingfield has added Henry Tun in the 3.40 (9 picks) and Southwell has added Sedintank in the 4.00 (9 picks) which just left Catterick and that meeting drew a blank on AM’s figures.

Today, you are quite right about Yankeedoodledandy being a 3* JOINT PICK. It may win or lose but it is not a NORMAL 3* PICK so I won’t be putting any money on it.

This system hasn’t been going that long, so naturally I wan’t to stick with what bets have been working and they are 3* normal picks…and they don’t come that often.

The other selection’s are being monitored and if I spot a winning trend I will post it up on this thread.

Thanks for taking the time & trouble for going through the selection process Ollie and I hope I have cleared up any confusion on what I am actually betting on and what I am just monitoring.

All the best

Brico

PS: Thanks Rex, I think my bed is calling…I’m up in 5 hours..night shift at the factory…Oh dear…:(

(Edited by Bricoman at 11:26 am on Jan. 15, 2004)

[Ollie]

Brico,<br>Very many thanks for taking me through the process.<br>I’ve definitely got it now!<br>Ollie

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