I’m tinkering around with all sorts of ratings at the moment and I came across Nick Mordin’s method for ‘cranking out’ quick speed figures in the Racing Post book Betting on Horses.
His method, as I remember it, was as follows:
Establish how many seconds per mile each race was run faster/slower than standard (RP standard)<br>For the fastest race divide the RPR of the winner by 3.8. This is the speed figure for that race. <br>For all of the other races deduct one point for every 0.2 seconds per mile slower than the fastest.
I’ve done a couple of meetings in this fashion and I can’t work out whether these figures are meaningless nonsense or a basic but serviceable starting point. Any speed figure compilers got an opinion?
It’s very quick and very dirty but it’s actually not too far off the basic premise of how Topspeed figures are done – basically hang the fastest race off the RPR that’s given to it and calculate every other race from that.
(Edited by Gareth Flynn at 12:20 am on June 22, 2007)
meaningless nonsense in my opinion that will just waste much time creating numbers that won’t have any influence in finding the winner of any future race – though i understand some people find comfort in this having many ready excuses for the races not working out according to the random numbers
adding a mac at the beginning is very apt i think, best to get used to the name of your next employer if using this as a backing pointer – would ya like fries with that ?
Quick speed figures are possible provided you have a sound method in place before you press the button.
Once you have a ‘key’ race, you can hang all the speed figures around that race, although you need to take account of other variants such as straight course/round course, effect of wind.
I would advise sticking to the 0 to 140 scale, so that your ratings can be compared to RPR, Topspeed, Timeform, Superform and many other amateur compilers.
The RPRs are a good guide, along with previous Topspeed ratings, to estimate the expected value of the form for any particular truly run race. If any race produces speed figures which are more than 7lbs greater than the estimate, it should arouse suspicion.