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If I had a strike rate of 90% and I bet 25% of my betting bank could anyone tell me what the chances of having a run that would wipeout my bank?
Is the answer really simple or am I missing something?
Jeff,
With a S/R of 90% the probability for a losing run of 1 – 4 is:
Losing Run of 1 – 9.99%
Losing Run of 2 – 0.99%
Losing Run of 3 – 0.09%
Losing Run of 4 – 0.00%So, in theory you can’t wipe you bank out
There is a Longest Losing Run Calculator at
If you’re taking 25% away from something, then you are always left with 75% of something, so you never reach zero. That is the smartass maths answer.
The maths is fairly easy here, because of the 10% losing rate.
You will have 2 consecutive losers once in a hundred (O.1 squared)
3 consecutive losers once in a thousand (0.1 cubed)
4 consecutive losers once in ten thousand etcI suppose the thing to do is to set a lower limit such as 1% of your bank, and then work out the probability of that level being reached (within a certain number of bets).
Can’t be bothered at the moment.
think your wrong on this one,
each race is independent so the probability of the 4th race loosing is still 10%
No, the figure for 4 consecutive losers is
before
you have had the first one, rather than
after
you have already had three.
what price would you give me on the 4th one winning? 9/1 or the 100,000/1 (approx) that you reckon it should be. And the more important thing, if your strike rate is 90% then the price you get has to be better, otherwise you’ll loose in the long run.
No, the figure for 4 consecutive losers is
before
you have had the first one, rather than
after
you have already had three.
Are you fishing, or can’t follow a logically constructed sentence?
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