- This topic has 81 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
The forecast ratings for MM and Denman are 186 and 185 respectively. Does that under-rate the 3m+ form? I happen to think that Denman’s performance was, lb for lb, the better performance. I’d say that Denman is the best chaser i’ve seen in my life. I can however name a few that i’d make the equal of, or better than, Master Minded. Badsworth Boy anyone? Wayward Lad? Tingle Creek?
I rate Denman’s performance as 190+. He galloped all over a dual KG winner for crissakes. How much better does it get?Denman won well, but in a race that ran like a 28f+ event rather than the 26f it is supposed to be and with the ‘dual KG winner’ running below form. Nothing close to a 190 performance on that basis, and I’d fancy a distinct reversal on better ground.
Unless Kauto Star is a job horse, of course…
I don’t think you can ceiling Master Minded at all yet. Basically since Paul Nicholls has had him and the horse has developed he’s run in two notable chases and beaten the reigning champ on both ocassions. His performance at Cheltenham was quite amazing and however you rate it its practically impossible not to rate it in the 180’s. It was awesome. Take him out and Voy Por wins by a street. Voy Por himself has been anihilated there’s no other word for it.
Would Master Minded have beaten Badsworth Boy / Moscow Flyer? Well you can’t say for certain but he would definitely be right up there with them. Official ratings have him ahead of the great Moscow Flyer – its hard to argue against it on Thursdays performance – would Moscow Flyer have beaten Master Minded on that day? it’s hard to say conclusively that he would.
We suddenly have three 180 (ish) rated horses : Master Minded, Kauto, Denman after not having any since Dessie (correct me if I’m wrong).
It seems to me that Paul Nicholls is raising the bar and taking steeplechasing to another level.I just feel sorry for Exotic Dancer (though he wasn’t at his best in Gold Cup, predictably after preparation), because in any of the previous twenty years he’d have been the top rated chaser around, a Gold cup winner and winner of probably two King Georges.
We’re lucky, we have some incredible chasers around at the moment and an amazingly gifted trainer.
I would disagree, i think mastermindeds was more impressive, foot perfect jumping, fastest race of the week (by some margin) and unlike denman master minded wasnt showing any sign of stopping up the hill, ruby was petting Master Minded up the run in, unlike sam thomas who was riding denman for his life.
Its fair to say that on good ground, an in form kauto star would have a chance of reversing form with an in form denman (harry findlay even said as much). On any sort of ground imaginable, it is hard to see mastermided being beaten by any of his generation or the next.
I doubt Master Minded will live up to his rating in every single race, as indeed he was fully primed for thursday and had everything to suit, but then so too was denman, and denmans lexus chase was hardly him at his best.
I think the real question is:
At five years old, on what was really his third start over british chasing fences, beating an in form 169/170 rated champion chaser by a wound down 19 lengths, is master minded under rated?
Time will tell…
@ LGR.Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
A extremely impressive winner in Master Minded, from what appeared to be a quality field. Tingle Creek, as much as I loved him, wasn’t in the same class.
The progress of MM from now on will be interesting. Do any forum members have views on the longevity of the careers of horses under Paul Nicholl’s care? It’s one thing training a horse to realise it’s full potential, keeping it at that level of performance is another – does PN succeed in that respect?
all this ‘poor kauto ran below form, under his best, made a few mistakes at fences, must have had something wrong with him….etc…’
why can’t we just be clear and say he got stuffed, beat by the better horse, he is an ex-champion and no longer the best nh horse as there is someone better on the scene
the avoidance of reality or responsibility in life, the attitude we mustn’t hurt anyone’s feelings, ‘let’s not tell schoolkids they’ve failed exams, we’ll just say they’ve not passed and it’s not their fault’, has spread to every part of life now
kauto got stuffed by a better horse
fin
Trouble is there are problems atributing ratings to both horses.
With Denman it is that no horse appeared to run to form.
If Neptunes Collonges ran to form then Denman did not have to run to form to beat him.
If Kauto ran to form then Neptune improved nearly 2 stones, hardly likely.
Halcon was outpaced under less of a test of stamina than he needs.
Exotic needed the race and does not usually run well fresh.So it could be Denman did not need to improve to win, good performance though it was.
I would guess, as an educated guess is all we can do; is Neptunes may have improved 4 or 5 lbs for the stiffest test of stamina he has faced.
And Denman is worth an extra couple of lbs more than the winning distance as he had the race won some way out. In my opinion he would have won by further had Thomas not given quite such an aggressive ride. Though he was not to know Kauto would make so many mistakes.
I believe 180 or 181 would be about Denmans mark.Kauto should be on 184, as his 2m4f and 3m form is better.
In the Queen Mum Master Minded and Voy Por Ustedes were the only ones of the big 4 to run to form.
But Voy Por Ustedes beat the third and fourth by the distances you might expect, if anything a couple of lengths further. So there is not much doubt, particularly with the runner ups stable being in such good form; that VPU ran to form. The time was also exceptional compared to other race times on the day.So I would rate:
Kauto Star 184
Master Minded at 182+
Denman on 180+I do not like rating horses on what they could have achieved but if you are asking how far they might have won by, so how good they are (at this moment) then:
Master Minded 185+
Kauto Star184
Denman 181+Changed my mind a bit from yesterday.
But, I am no ratings expert. Leave that to Timeform.Ginge
Value Is Everythingall this ‘poor kauto ran below form, under his best, made a few mistakes at fences, must have had something wrong with him….etc…’
why can’t we just be clear and say he got stuffed, beat by the better horse, he is an ex-champion and no longer the best nh horse as there is someone better on the scene
the avoidance of reality or responsibility in life, the attitude we mustn’t hurt anyone’s feelings, ‘let’s not tell schoolkids they’ve failed exams, we’ll just say they’ve not passed and it’s not their fault‘, has spread to every part of life now
kauto got stuffed by a better horse
fin
And the attitude of some school kids, that a horse is not allowed to run below form once in a while, that the Gold Cup winner must have the best form because it is the Gold Cup. Is indeed losing touch with reality.
Childish in the extreme.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingDenman and Master Minded may well be better than Kauto Star ever was given time. They have noy proved it yet.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingI don’t think there is much doubt that Master Minded was visually the most impressive winner of the Festival. However, I think there is a huge doubt as to exactly what he beat. Voy Por Ustedes I don’t think is a reliable yardstick any longer. I think the run in the handicap on a surface he doesn’t like was a mistake and he has looked woefully short of pace ever since. As for the others despite being under pressure on the run to the first Fair Along ran through the debris to finish third – he is hardly a reliable yardstick either. At this stage I would have rated Master Minded much more conservatively until he backs up the Cheltenham win.
lmao ginge, that reply was an own goal
and you’re forcing yourself to believe he did run below par, which even his rider didn’t go as far as to say happened and, i know you can’t consider the idea, but it may not be the case either
he was beat though and he is an ex-champion, that’s without doubt
Denman won well, but in a race that ran like a 28f+ event rather than the 26f it is supposed to be and with the ‘dual KG winner’ running below form. Nothing close to a 190 performance on that basis, and I’d fancy a distinct reversal on better ground.
I’m surprised you say that KS didn’t run his race. I think he ran his race but never jumped fluently as he was always stretched to pull Denman back. He was not allowed to run his race. Who’s to say that wouldn’t always be the case when they meet? Denman is a grinder, KS is the proverbial hold up horse.
If Kauto ran to form Neptunes improved 2 stones. Hardly likely.
You are denegrating a horse for one run, over too stiff a test of stamina to show his best.
The Queen Mum was not a good quality renewal. But it does not have to be for Master minded to be rated highly.
1) Time of the race was far better than anything else on the day.
2) 19 lengths back to an admittedly poor Champion Chase winner.
3) 16 lengths further back to an Arke 3rd.
4) Winning with plenty in hand.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingIf Kauto ran to form Neptunes improved 2 stones. Hardly likely.
Had Denman not been in the race, Kauto would have beaten NC by considerably more than a sh hd. I agree that NC is well and truely flattered by the form, in that he would be at least 12lbs inferior to KS in my book.
Jumping errors cost Kauto many lengths.If Kauto ran to form Neptunes improved 2 stones. Hardly likely.
You are denegrating a horse for one run, over too stiff a test of stamina to show his best.
The Queen Mum was not a good quality renewal. But it does not have to be for Master minded to be rated highly.
1) Time of the race was far better than anything else on the day.
2) 19 lengths back to an admittedly poor Champion Chase winner.
3) 16 lengths further back to an Arke 3rd.
4) Winning with plenty in hand.
Ginge
Can’t argue with (4) but hard to quantify; (2) and (3) in my opinion don’t add up to much – Fair Along is not a class act at two miles if at any trip these days and I don’t put too much weight behind times – some pretty average performers have held course records in their time.
As I said Stilvi, It was not a great quality field. But he did not just beat them, he pulverised them. Fair along beaten 35 lengths. And third and fourth were going for everything.
Voy Por Ustedes was rated by Timeform 161 beaten easily by 19 lengths.
Fair Along 151 (going all out for third) beaten easily by 35 lengths.
Schindlers Hunt 147 (going all out for third) beaten easily by 36 lengths.Even at just 1lb per length.
With VPU as a guide Master Minded is worth 180
Fair Along as a guide 186
Schindlers Hunt as a guide 183VPU was rated on this years form. His winning 2007 run was rated in Timeform Chasers And Hurdlers as 163 so on that Master Minded would rate 182 (VPU is generally seen as a better horse at Cheltenham).
If we say Fair Along was 4 lbs below form, got away to a poor start. 182
And Schindlers Hunt 1 lb below best 182I would say Master Minded should be rated 180 to 182 on distances. Then there is how easily he won, worth two or three pounds.
So Master Minded 184 and is improving so 184+.
That is how I see it.
Hope Timeform do not mind me using their excellant ratings to illustrate my point.
Ginge
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.