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December 7, 2008 at 15:40 #195097
I think Kruguyrova could run a big race in the Champion Chase. She won’t beat MM but she could be placed at a big price.
December 7, 2008 at 18:44 #195160Free World
Is this a joke?
The reason MM is 4/7 is because there literally seems to be no competition up to his standard. Tidal Bay will go further now, no more 2m races. VPU is the only reasonable contender to challenge him and MM has beaten him easy before around Cheltenham.
December 7, 2008 at 19:06 #195166Free World
Is this a joke?
The reason MM is 4/7 is because there literally seems to be no competition up to his standard. Tidal Bay will go further now, no more 2m races. VPU is the only reasonable contender to challenge him and MM has beaten him easy before around Cheltenham.
VPU will go for the Ryanair, so will Noland, Tamarinbleu, Tidal Bay and most if not all 2 milers capable of staying the longer distance. The Queen Mother will be a mockery of a 2 mile championship now the Ryanair is a grade 1.
Therefore 4/7 (I believe 8/11 is / was available) is a fair price.
Mark
Value Is EverythingDecember 7, 2008 at 19:40 #195178Out of interest (whilst I learn more about NH), who is the next best 2 mile chaser behind MM?
Well Chief is still in training and would be a major threat to MM if he has retained his ability. However that’s highly unlikely given the amount of time he has been off the track due to injury.
December 7, 2008 at 19:55 #195182AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
A fit Well Chief would be the only remaining marker for recent comparisons with the likes of Moscow Flyer, but I can’t imagine that he’s still able to run to marks of around 175-180.
December 7, 2008 at 20:07 #195191Backing steeplechasers at 4/7 for a race some three months away is not a proposition I’d care to take on myself.
He is outstanding though. Best steeplechaser in the world without argument.
December 7, 2008 at 20:51 #195201Is anybody on here actually considering betting him ap at those odds?
December 7, 2008 at 20:55 #195206Is anybody on here actually considering betting him ap at those odds?
Not me especially as we may get Good ground at Cheltenham and I have my theory that Master Minded is a far better horse on soft ground.
December 7, 2008 at 21:10 #195215Twist Magic was travelling well, but he wouldnt have got within a ‘cooey’ of Master Minded.
I agree. Ok, I just wanted to find out wtf "Cooey" is
Zip
December 7, 2008 at 21:24 #195218AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
What makes you think good ground will count against Master Minded, Ian?
Stamina clearly didn’t win him the Champion Chase in March (he’d have faired a good deal better at Aintree otherwise, or, conversely, Voy Por Ustedes wouldn’t have been demolished at Cheltenham) and he’s a strong traveller, so I would have no such concerns.
Betting at odds-on isn’t something I do at the best of times, but in this case there is no doubt which race Master Minded will be going for, he’s unlikely to be over-raced in the lead up to the Festival and has next to no (existing) competition. As Fists has said he’s only likely to face a small field, a good percentage of which Nicholls himself may be responsible for, and will have everything go his way. He’s adaptable tactically and if there is no other pace in the race everything could be over with a mile to go. Voy Por Ustedes is the only possible (not probable) test for him, but on this year’s form he’s running for second – what price is Master Minded likely to be? 1/5? 1/6? Shorter?
In the build up to Kauto Star’s Gold Cup people were happy to be taking as short as 5/4 well in advance of the race, despite the fact he’d already fallen at Cheltenham, might not even get to Cheltenham (usual ante-post concerns rather than anything specific) and was prone to horrific jumping errors. Compare that 5/4 to this 4/7 and it’s an absolute steal.
In truth, with my wallet unusually full following Pacquiao’s eighth round stoppage of de la Hoya this morning, an investment in Master Minded is under consideration.
December 7, 2008 at 21:27 #195219Backing steeplechasers at 4/7 for a race some three months away is not a proposition I’d care to take on myself.
He is outstanding though. Best steeplechaser in the world without argument.
Many people said 6/4 was not a good proposition and I even doubted it myself after Aintree. Now it looks a great price.
The way I look at it is if you can afford to back him at 4/7 what you are doing is backing him to turn up…….He will be around 1/6 on the day if he turns up and those who had the guts andmoney to back him can make a fair bit of spare change by laying him off surely?
It’s not my thing as I totally refuse to lay any horse I fancy but I reckon for the above reason they will have plenty takers at 4/7.
December 7, 2008 at 21:33 #195224Equitrack I think if you look through Master Minded’s form it does indicate that he’s better on soft ground although that isn’t conclusive by any means.
I think he looks like a soft ground horse. He’s not the type that will win coming from behind horses with a burst of acceleration he’s a horse that likes to gallop at his own pace. If you look at the Tingle Creek, the early pace was much slower than it was in the Novice Chase ran before it. A race like that suits Master Minded IMO in that he can go at his own pace and dominate his opposition and over two miles stamina s his forte which is why Cheltenham will always suit him.
I think on good / quick ground it only needs one or two to go off at a blistering pace and not only will Master Minded not be able to go at his own pace and dominate it will also put pressure on his jumping.
December 7, 2008 at 21:35 #195226Free World
Is this a joke?
The reason MM is 4/7 is because there literally seems to be no competition up to his standard. Tidal Bay will go further now, no more 2m races. VPU is the only reasonable contender to challenge him and MM has beaten him easy before around Cheltenham.
Why would it be a joke? What rating would you give Free World for yesterday’s run? I’m pretty sure he’d get a damn sight closer than VPU.
December 7, 2008 at 21:44 #195228AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
So, in your opinion, Free World’s defeat in a novice chase puts him ahead of Voy Por Ustedes?
December 7, 2008 at 21:49 #195229Free World
Is this a joke?
The reason MM is 4/7 is because there literally seems to be no competition up to his standard. Tidal Bay will go further now, no more 2m races. VPU is the only reasonable contender to challenge him and MM has beaten him easy before around Cheltenham.
Why would it be a joke? What rating would you give Free World for yesterday’s run? I’m pretty sure he’d get a damn sight closer than VPU.
A first season novice chaser in the QMCC who got beat in his last race?
Thats why I thought you were joking.
He’s not in any market at all for the QMCC and Paul Nicholls will not send a novice chaser to challenge MM at Cheltenham even if he did think he was good enough.
December 7, 2008 at 22:32 #195232When did i ever say he would run in the QMCC? The qn was who is the 2nd best 2m in training. IMHO i think its Free World….who will continue to improve as the season goes on. The first and second in that novice race yesterday have nothing to fear from VPU.
December 7, 2008 at 22:43 #195236He’s a 4 year old barely out of his nappies, he’s arond 20/1 for ther Arkle along with the horse who beat him…..he would damn well have to improve around a stone to get within striking distance of VPU or even Twist Magic on a bad day……I know it’s hard to get your head round but the gulf between horses like Free World and a moderate QMCC winner like VPU is sort of like the difference between a fast family car and a Ferrari. The Ferrari woldn’t be out of 2nd gear to pass it.
I agree he looks like a horse for the future in fact they both do but that’s a couple of years away not 3 months away.
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