Losing Streak

[Drone]

There’s a typo in your first list: it should read If 40% SR a 10 losing run in 413

I needed the chicken before the egg, as without the numbers I wouldn’t have been able to find the equation! Though having now found it I do recall having known it in the dim and distant. A genuine thanks for giving me the opportunity to refresh my memory Gingerdecimals

The formula for calculating the number of bets at a strike-rate SR over which of a losing run of length LR would be expected to occur is:

(100/100-SR)^LR x 100/SR

e.g.

for an LR of 10 and SR of 50%:
(100/100-50)^10 x 100/50
(100/50)^10 x 2
= 2^10 x 2
= 1024 x 2
=2048

an LR of 10 and SR of 30%:
(100/100-30)^10 x 100/30
(100/70)^10 x 3.33
1.429^10 x 3.33
= 118

an LR of 20 at SR 20%
(100/100-20)^20 x 100/20
(100/80)^20 x 5
= 1.25^20 x 5
= 86.736 x 5
= 434

note that LRs at 50% SR are simply 2 raised to the power of LR+1
e.g. LR10 at SR50 = 2^11 = 2048

Of course, none of this means the calculated losing runs will happen, just that they can be expected to happen: that’s Probability/Possibility for you

[Gingertipster]

Drone wrote:

There’s a typo in your first list: it should read If 40% SR a 10 losing run in 413

Value Is Everything

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