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Is anyone else a sucker for this stat, as I am? For some reason it’s always one of the first things I look for in the Racing Post, especially if a trainer is only sending the one. I got done again today by backing the only one Karl Burke sent to Brighton (a 600-mile round trip), a well-backed favourite that faded badly in the final furlong. Typically I then ignored the only one my local-ish trainer Evan Williams sent to Uttoxeter (a 310-mile round trip), that won at 14/1. Naively I think the horse has more of a chance – irrational really – due to the time and effort taken to get it there.
As it happens, I was in the car yesterday with a non-racing friend when we drove past Bernard Llewellyn’s yard in the Rhymney Valley (south Wales). I pointed out the gallops and then said I always keep a look out if Bernard sends one or two on a long trip. My friend’s instant reply was that in his opinion, the horse would be less likely to win, due to it being in the horse box for so long. I’d never looked at it like this but it’s a valid point.
Obviously by definition some trainers, such as Peter Bowen, will have a long-ish trip pretty much wherever they send horses, due to their locations. I also tend to take less notice of longest travellers to the big meetings, believing there is more to it when the horse is being sent for paltry prize money.
I think it’s one of the most overrated stats in racing and I have “Soandso hasn’t sent him all that way for a day out” right up there with “a good horse will act on any going” in the pseudo-cognoscenti utter drivel department.
But each to their own and if any punter finds it a profitable angle good luck to them.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Not sure I expected “pseudo-cognoscenti utter drivel department” in a reply, but thank you anyway. As you say, each to their own. As prefaced in my post, I know I’m a sucker for doing it and that it’s fairly irrational. Just thought I’d start a topic on it to see if there were similar punters on here, or any different thought processes to this method of judging a horses’s chances.
I think I started a thread years ago in the system section with longest journey and only one horse from the yard making the trip.
Don’t think it lasted long as results were poor
I certainly would be interested to see say a year or two’s results from this approach
Possible they could be over-bet at times resulting in a poorer overall return and like you said the long journey could take more out of the horse than you might think
You wouldn’t take a horse that you’d thought had no chances all that way surely unless it was a cover up for other activity’s..
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I suspect horses are run for a “day out“ for the owner quite frequently, though not always with the owner’s awareness of this.
I wasn’t specifically referring to you, Cymro, and sincere apologies if you took any offence.
That said, if a bit of scorn steers anyone away from what I believe to be a long-term losing system, then maybe I have done more good than harm!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I remember a similar system to the one Nathan mentions. I think the “rules” were , one selection per day and the selection was determined by listing all the horses that had travelled in excess of 200 miles and then looking at the win prize money and the horse travelling for the “least money per mile travelled” was the one to be on.
As I recall the results were disappointing and required you to back beasts that you knew had no earthly chance of winning (until you didn’t back them and they bolted up at 50/1)
There is definitely plenty of scope in factoring in travel. But it cannot be taken in isolation. Quality of the horse, the race and a ton of other factors which can all build up to the perfect storm. Trainer record at the track, jockey booking. Horses first run for stable. Jockey record. Right time for the horse. Trainer’s profitable time of year. Horses time of year. It is a big list. David Evans takes two or three then drops one out for example. Mark Johnston rigidly plots out his horses. Yorkshire to Kempton and Essex with one horse first or last race.
Cymro it is definitely a winning factor for me.Alpine lady 26%
James tate
Arthur’s realm 10%
Ed Dunlop
Lenny spirit 10%
Ed Dunlop
Silver kitten
M johnston
King of Tonga
D.o’Meara
That is half of today’s major travellers and some of the strike rates. It is incredibly time consuming. And those are without any of the built in factors I mentioned that might make them a viable consideration. Aidan O’Brien and others must be here for Newmarket but they are not on the list….Mark Johnston has a full book of engagements at carlisle and Donny but this is his only runner at Epsom in the 6 30 and Royston French’s only ride. The horse has raced against most of the field last time out and has an 8 of 10 draw over 7f was the subject of a stewards report where “placed second, hung right carrying Silver Kitten (GB), unplaced, off its intended line, but after viewing a recording of the incident, it was found that no riding offence was involved and that it had not improved the placing of Millie Lou (GB).”
That is one I’d be looking at for win and place purposes, with a little bit more research….I remember hearing Toby Balding on the radio (Desert Island Discs, I think) telling a story about him being in his local betting shop and listening to the shop “know-all” telling the whole shop that he had sent one horse all the way to Perth and that it was 25/1. Toby chuckled to himself because the only reason the horse had gone there was that it was an amateur race and the owner wanted her son to ride.
When the race started and the horse hit the front Mr Know-all was cheering it on and Toby was still chuckling but lo and behold the horse made every post a winning one, not a penny of stable money was on it!I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysNo problem Ian. I wasn’t offended, just wasn’t expecting such a reply! I did laugh at your second paragraph…..
Phew!
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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