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The nicely bred Rubies Are Red has plenty to do on ratings, but she might enjoy this better ground and she’s my selection here.
The amount of criticism Ryan should get depends entirely on the fractions. tbh At the time, I thought the third and fourth were asked to close too soon.
If the early fractions were too fast then the winner went too fast too soon and may have won easier had she not done so.
Value Is EverythingA rare misjudgement from Moore I think. The last three were quite detached turning into the straight and Rubies Are Red still got to within half a length of the winner with that flying run. But normally, that’d be the right call if you think they’ve gone too quick up front and it did almost pay off.
Great performance from You Got To Me who could have faded tamely once Danielle and Treasure came to challenge but just kept finding enough to stay ahead.
I was going to say check out the colour coding on the ATR sectionals which implies Rubies Are Red was finishing fast past weakening horses, probably non-stayers for the 3rd and 4th who had every chance of going past the winner. The question you’d want to ask regards Epsom is why did she get so far back in the first place? They won’t be stopping like that in an Oaks and that would be a concern for all she clearly enjoyed the stamina test today. It was a good ride on the winner for what its worth, probably won’t get the credit it deserves.
Thanks for that LD.
Proof the winner did not go too fast and Rubies Are Red lost the race between the 8 and 7 and 6 to 5f pole. 13.04 and 13.77 second furlongs. Still not sure whether it was Ryan’s fault though. If I’ve got my bearings right the problem came on the run downhill into and around the bend. On replay I wonder if RAR handled that part of the track.It wasn’t that the 3rd and 4th didn’t stay as such. Both Danielle and Treasure paid for their quick furlong from 4 to 3. Danielle probably didn’t act as well on the ground too. I’d still be interested in her at Epsom if it came up soft.
Rubies Are Red might be one more for the Ribblesdale rather than the Oaks – on a flatter track.
Despite it visually appearing as though You Got To Me ran fast early, it was run over 2 seconds slower than the Derby Trial.
Value Is EverythingCertainly made for interesting reading – the winner ran the 1st 4F 1.43sec faster than the runner up, the 2nd 4F 0.59sec faster and then as you would expect, she paid for that by running the final 4F 1.93sec slower than the runner up but had gained enough of an advantage early on to hold on.
Both were very inefficient overall just from opposite ends of the spectrum – to me the runner up may have a similar issue coming down Tattenham Corner unless she has learned from today’s experience but neither will win an Oaks if they run the same way at Epsom as they did today, but I do think the Irish Oaks would be better suited to the runner up.
Given that today was YGTM’s first try over further than a mile and on her seasonal debut (the runner up had already had a run and would therefore have had a fitness advantage today) I do think with a less agressive ride she is a big player at Epsom especially considering there is stamina doubts about the favourite Ylang Ylang (generally 2-1).
According to Oddschecker YGTM is still as big as 16-1 with Bet365 (generally between 12 and 14-1) whilst the runner up is as low as 7-1 (generally around 8-1) and I think that people are more taken with the fast finishing of RAR and probably apply the flawed logic of if she was only a little closer she would have easily have won.
I would expect more improvement to come from the winner than the runner up who is also unlikely to have Ryan Moore on her back come Epsom.
Nailed on Moore rides Ylang Ylang I’d say. Rubies Are Red will be a drifter in the week/on the day. I’d be concerned with the way You Got To Me raced, liable to pull her chances away in an Oaks unless it was entirely down to freshness, the jockey seemed to suggest in his post race interviews she has her own way of doing things and that would be a concern.
Danielle and Treasure I mean they obviously did stay but not as well as the winner, they got to the tail of the winner who wasn’t exactly flying home and they couldn’t get past her. I don’t think any of them will prove good enough to be honest but its early days.
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