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Thought the flat boys would’ve started this thread days ago!
Was bored so had a look at the past 10 winners or so and there are some very clear trends in there.
7 of the last 8 winners had no prep. The exception had already had 6 starts. The 2 before were both trained by Paul Cole and both ran in a handicap 2 weeks earlier at Wolverhampton (before you look, no, no such horse exists this year for Cole).
9 of the last 10 winners were rated 89-99. Babodana was the exception on 107.
Progressing horses almost always win this race. A Class 2/3 handicap (or better) victory on either of their last 2 starts is a must. Blythe Knight had finished 8th and 7th in a Class 2 Handicap and the Cambridgeshire respectively, while the horse with 6 preps hadn’t won either of his last 2. He did win the race (Class 2 handicap) before though.
There have only been 2 winners older than 6 since 1980 (thank you, Wikipedia) as well.
They all leave a clear profile; 4-6yo, OR in the 90s (or 89), with no prep and a victory in a Class 2/3 handicap on either of his/her last 2 starts.
Doctor Crane, Pentinent, Mill Of Killough and Tiger Reigns remain. I can’t possibly have the former coming off a 10-month break while I can’t for second believe Pentinent will get the trip. All 4 of Kyllachy’s best progeny have been 5-7f horses (Arabian Gleam & Tariq both failed multiple times to win over a mile).
Mill Of Killough and Tiger Reigns are the remaining 2. The latter’s record on ground with a bit of cut in it speaks volumes and Spearing’s been saying he desperately wants it soft for Mull Of Killough, so I’ve done both each-way at 14s and 20s. RFCs and a toteswinger will follow!
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I’m totally against using trends to try and find winners although it does very often point to horses that the odds are stacked against so has it’s uses.
To me every horse is an individual and what happpened in 18-0-plonk doesn’t stop a good horse from throwing trends out the window. Which mean you can often miss out on the obvious if you live and breath by them.
I don’t know if Richard Hannon has something else up his sleeve or why Vitznau doesn’t come into you calculatiuons but the horse won with so much in hand the other day he has just got to be on the short list.
Hannon’s horses are on fire and by the end of this month the winners will be rolling in.
To be honest I hate the lincoln it’s a bigger lottery than the National but I’ll have a tenner ew on on whatever Hughsie rides.
I’d go for some middle ground here – trends IMO are important to get some sort of loose model or profile of the likely winner, but I wouldn’t go overboard on it – and instead of viewing horses as individuals, I’d go a bit further and look at the particular field as a collective, and analyse the context (a key word in form reading for me), relativity and try to predict how the race will be run based on horse’s styles and form to date. Therefore I wouldn’t rule out Penitent on breeding grounds (he’s won and come 2nd over a 1m so far?) as he looks quite versatile (breaks well, can be held-up or close-up), and Vitznau merits close consideration but is very inconsistent, also a hold up performer who may not get the breaks needed.
Mister Hardy could be interesting if he runs, Dr. Crane hasn’t run in fields over 9 so far but has a course win to his name, Light From Mars won a good handicap at York back in the Autumn but might not be a Spring horse, Mull Of Killough’s form doesn’t look too great and hasn’t contested a field over 12 although beet LFM at Haydock in Sep. All things considered, it’s Penitent for me.
Hannon’s horses are on fire and by the end of this month the winners will be rolling in.
Why do i feel a link to
Canford Cliffs
coming?
I was spending yesterday morning watching re-runs of several of my Lincoln fancies (and paying to watch them)
I have already lost £20 on Expresso Star,i like Mias Boy
at 16"s but i would give an even bigger chance to
Collateral Damage
who i have backed at 25/1,the only concern there would be, he has to have Soft ground or he wont be running!Not a 3 figure race for me,too early and too tricky!
Penitent’s form rather than his pedigree, suggests he is already proven at 1m. Given that very few unexposed progressive horses look likely to get into the race, I think he deserves to be a short-priced favourite. I can see him starting in the 7/2 4/1 region on Saturday. His Southwell run when he chased home Sovreign Remedy looks the strongest piece of form in the race, well clear of Collateral Damage who won his next 2 starts and reliable fibresand performer Nightjar well held in third. He’d also have given the winner more to do had he not been so confidently ridden.
The fact that Haggas has booked Murtagh to ride suggests the horse will be 100% on the day.
Penitent’s form rather than his pedigree, suggests he is already proven at 1m. I think he deserves to be a short-priced favourite. I can see him starting in the 7/2 4/1 region on Saturday. His Southwell run when he chased home Sovreign Remedy looks the strongest piece of form in the race, well clear of Collateral Damage who won his next 2 starts
On that basis David,surely Collateral Damage has to be the value bet? There"s plenty of 16"s available,bearing in mind he"s not an All weather horse and that third broke a string of 6 consecutive victories! Penitent obviously has the more scope and could have improved 10lb just through the winter being only a 4yo,i shall be happy with a place!
I think Collateral Damage is badly handicapped now. Whilst his trainer is hardly renowned for having the same knack of laying one out for a big race as Penitent’s!
I think Collateral Damage is badly handicapped now. Whilst his trainer is hardly renowned for having the same knack of laying one out for a big race as Penitent’s!
Bog Trotters!
I think Collateral Damage is badly handicapped now. Whilst his trainer is hardly renowned for having the same knack of laying one out for a big race as Penitent’s!
Bog Trotters!
Another one of Haggas’ (almost) who went very well at Doncaster!
Oh dear I have backed Albaqaa of Faheys and its had a run!! Only consolation is I am on at 25/1
Oh dear I have backed Albaqaa of Faheys and its had a run!! Only consolation is I am on at 25/1
Dont worry Raymo you not the only one i backed it saturday myself (33/1 e/w corals)I also backed it in the lincoln trial at wolves when it finished 3rd to Vitznau. That slowly run race did not suit it at all as the horse needs to come off a fast pace,so hopefully it will get that saturday.When i looked at the form of the race i came up with a shortlist of 3 Albaqaa, Extraterrestrial and Huzzah, so after some deliberation decided to back Albaqaa and Huzzah who ran a fine race last year running mainly down the middle of the track before finishing 5th on a mark of 98. Now B.Hills has this horse on a mark of 93 (His last winning mark) i think he can go close so had to have a bit of the 20/1 e/w, but the horse may miss the cut
so he may have to settle for the consolation prize leaving the race for Albaqaa 
. just have the draw to contend with now. 
LV, I’ve got Extraterrestrial covered.
Hey, Gordon! Valery Borzov is now with Fahey. You’ll now see this season that Fahey is a better trainer than Dandy.
Hey, Gordon! Valery Borzov is now with Fahey. You’ll now see this season that Fahey is a better trainer than Dandy.
Valery is one of the most ground dependant sprinters in training!Heavy ground and he"s a winner,whoever trains him Gerald!
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TAPK
Don’t know why you should think Collateral Damage needs soft ground? His trainer has avoided firm ground in the past, but the horse has won twice on genuine g/f at Redcar, and (even without the forecast rain) I doubt the new turf at Doncaster will inconvenience him one iota.
Imo, his last race of the season was much better form than his Southwell 3rd behind Penitent and, like you, I have it between him and Mia’s Boy.Huzzah comfortably holds Mia’s Boy on Hunt Cup running 96 vs 103 now 93 vs 106, so 6lbs better off. I suspect Huzzah is being aimed at the Hunt Cup again but you never know. Tough ask for MB given he was beaten last year off 102.
Hunters of Brora (1998) was the only horse aged older than 6 of recent times to win this, and she was a classy Cambridgeshire specialist, albeit without the glory. Quito went close in Babodana’s year but an old winner is unusual.
Collateral Damage, whilst enjoying something of a renaissance in (mainly) much softer races last season, will struggle manfully to win a Heritage handicap off a career high mark first time out – he has no ‘fresh’ record either.
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