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I’m surprised that on their very best pieces of form, you have only 1 lb between Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer.
With a plus
Exotic Dancer at his very best is an exceptional three mile chaser. His run at Haydock on a line through Kauto, Beef Or Salmon and Turpin Green looks like a 180 run to me, he was only a length behind Kauto and Beef Or Salmon ran to pretty much the mark he did the previous year. The form looks consistant and solid.
The difference between the two IMO is that Kauto Star is far more versatile in terms of ground / trip / course. Exotic Dancer in order to run to his absolute peak needs certain conditions. If he doesn’t get them he runs a few pounds below his peak but such is his ability he’s still ahead of the rest with the exception of Denman.
Yet the time of last years race was quick for the conditions, only a second or so below standard on Good to soft ground.
If the time of this year’s Gold Cup was quick and the pace anything other than significantly slower than usual you can call me a Dutchman.
In fact, you can call me Che Van der Wheil.
…and if Denman is exposed and doesn’t have any room for improvement then I am a Chinaman.
Is there anything new that can be said on this subject?
Colin
Whats your point Colin?
JohnJ
Into the eighth page and people will not be able to agree until the two/three horses (hopefully) meet in March.
’tis all speculation and hot air.
Colin
Into the eighth page and people will not be able to agree until the two/three horses (hopefully) meet in March.
’tis all speculation and hot air.
Colin
So is most of racing but thats what we’re here for to discuss the pros and cons.
Does neither of you think that it has all been said?
Colin
No it will all be discussed right up until the big day. Thats what Cheltenham is all about and why people love it so much, all the build up all the puzzles waiting to be answered.
I could talk about it for hours on end.
Ahh!……………….the enthusiasm of youth.
Colin
I’m 34 my youthful days are long gone. ………….. Sadly.
Do you think KS has improvement in him TDK?
JohnJ
Not impossible. He could have won the KG by a bit further JGJ and I wouldn’t rule out him running better still over 3 miles, but I certainly don’t fancy to post a career best over 3m2f. I think he has considerably less room for improvement than Denman though.
I think he still capable of improving over the extended 3m trip, he seems to have bags of stamina, I think he will achieve a career best rating when running in a strongly run race over this distance.
JohnJ.
I think he will improve
He posted (what i thought) was his best performance at Kempton, a track that doesnt really suit him (he still jumps left a bit). I think this is largely because his jumping has improved markedly
Left handed track, ideal conditions (and I have few worries about the extra 2f at cheltenham,…its possible hes staying on better this year anyway) and a more suitable pace could well lead to a perfoirmance well ahead of what we have seen so far
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