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I was pleased with Denman today. Deep down I was hoping PFN’s comments regarding his fitness FTO would be accurate and he’d improve a good few pounds from the Henessey, but IMO he’s put up a very similar level of performance.
the slow pace wouldn’t have helped, but to me he didn’t seem to have the same gears as his challengers in the GC. He moved ahead due to his class, but showed little turn of foot to my eyes. On the plus side, he’ll almost certainly be the best jumper we’ll see in the GC this year.Regarding some comments about KS’s stamina; I’ve been of the opinion for some time that KS has yet to have his stamina truly tested. You’ve just seen today the sort of cruising speed BoS has, and he lead them round in the GC last time! That race seems to have been no test of staying power whatsoever.
Having seen Denman today, he will probably have to run his stablemate off his feet in order to win the GC, and in attemptng to do so will bring Exotic Dancer back into contention, as long as AP doesn’t attempt any more bold front-running! This is why I still believe this GC is a 3-horse race, and ED is once again the glaring value at 12/1.FOF,
Not sure which race you were watching, and I await Prufrock’s sectionals for clarification, but I wouldn’t describe the gallop we saw today as ‘very decent’.
It looked a very leisurely stroll to the naked eye and although the bare form leaves him with something to find, we still haven’t seen him at his best. Hopefully he will get that chance at Cheltenham in March.
By run at a very decent pace I meant they never went of at 100mph like many of us expected. Decent not crazy
Certainly wasn’t a leisurely stroll over the last six fences and I wouldn’t be too concerned about the form of what finished behind him. It wasn’t until TL made his move that Ruby got serious…in other words not until he had to….Denman just raised his game, lengthened his stride and was in top gear all the way to the line.
If it had been different horses I think you would find he may be in top gear a bit earlier but still kept it up all the way to the line.
I couldn’t see a horse like Exotic Dancer having enough toe to get to Denman in full flight. I think I know which one Tony McCoy would ride in the gold cup if he had the choice
Unfortunately for him it would seem the writing is already on the wall and he will be a sitting duck for Kauto in the Gold Cup.
Can’t see him taking him of his feet and if and when Kauto swoops the big horse will just keep going at the same pace…..there is simply is no more gears for him to use………IMO of course
I’m struggling to understand the notion that The Listener doesn’t truly stay three miles, given his destruction of Beef Or Salmon at Leopardstown last year (admittedly, he was on the receiving end of a reverse soon after) and a staying-on second over 3m1f at Sandown behind Star De Mohaison.
Any suggestion that yesterday’s pace was anything more than a relative dawdle is seriously misguided in my view, the misuse of associated terms aside.
Now I’m just waiting to see a Grade 1 chase where the leading contenders go a ‘leisurely pace over the last six fences’…..
Pru, he’s capable of outstanding form at 2-3m not just distances short of 3m.
Last years GC does leave a lingering doubt in the mind but he sees out 3m better than anything around at the moment (On ratings anyway). I’m also starting to believe that he’s as good if not better on soft ground.
I hope this years GC is run at proper gallop and we can truly find out whether he’ll come up the hill first. Can’t wait!!
As someone on here said recently Kauto has gears so I think he can deal with whatever tactics the opposition throw at him and prevail, if we say a horse has 5 gears then I don’t think Kauto had to get out of 4th on boxing day, he looked so comfortable.
People who are saying they will back Exotic Dancer at big odds will see him go to 6-0 down and while I have backed him against KS twice in the past I now know he is simply nowhere near as good under any circumstances, he came close in the race prior to the King George and there were thoughts that he would improve on that but it wasn’t at all close, the stable aren’t in good form but I think they will now be thinking it will never happen.
Something I’ve been thinking about recently is I didn’t know much about Kauto Star when he was first on the scene in a big way and I took him on with L’Ami
I have also taken him on with E D twice, I didn’t warm to K S as I didn’t see any characteristics to warm to, or quirks, things that made Desert Orchid and George Washington favourites with the fans, but lately I’ve thought I’m wrong to take him on and want him to lose because if he does lose with no excuses then he is just another very good horse, but not one to go down as a legend, racing is surely all about horses that in years to come are remembered as Arkle and Desert Orchid are..
So in the last few weeks I have appreciated K S for his supreme talent and become a fan and supported him for his future races, starting with the King George, I know a lot of people don’t particularly warm to him but we should want to get behind him and realise that we are lucky enough to be around in his era and can say I saw K S win, I was around at that time.
I saw him on boxing day and I think in years to come it will be something to tell people as I think he will become a real legend as the top 5 or so horses of the past are, he is very close already isn’t he, my brother came with me on boxing day but isn’t into racing and doesn’t appreciate what he saw, I said to him how good was that you are lucky to have witnessed it, he said it was just a horse winning a race, 20 years from now if K S achieves what I think he will then what we saw on boxing day will be more than just ‘a horse winning a race’
I’m struggling to understand the notion that The Listener doesn’t truly stay three miles, given his destruction of Beef Or Salmon at Leopardstown last year (admittedly, he was on the receiving end of a reverse soon after) and a staying-on second over 3m1f at Sandown behind Star De Mohaison.
Any suggestion that yesterday’s pace was anything more than a relative dawdle is seriously misguided in my view, the misuse of associated terms aside.
Now I’m just waiting to see a Grade 1 chase where the leading contenders go a ‘leisurely pace over the last six fences‘…..
If anyone is saying he never got the trip yesterday, he mustn’t be able to stay 2m.6furlongs never mind 3m if you are correct and the race was run at such a dawdle. Personally I thought he ran on well for a spent force and saw the trip out quite well……….Certainly would never back the second to beat him again over 3 miles.
It was certainly a dawdle to the third fence which probably knocked up around 10 seconds or more to the time ……..they virtually walked there then it became a Denman dawdle the minute Ruby thought "stuff this"..which is relative to what?….Denman is a very well balanced horse and jumps with great ease and will always give you the impression he is going slower than he is….the fact is his dawdle was enough to ensure 4 of the other 5 never got into the race at any point…….. Ruby is a great judge of pace and let Denman do his own thing and the horse was going plenty fast enough. Had there been the remotest chance of it turning into a "sprint" Ruby would have soon took hold of him and stepped up the pace……..The listener jockey perhaps did the wrong thing and awoke a sleeping giant when trying to take the lead when he did it backfired on him and gave Denman all the time in the world he he needed get from one gear to another and by the 2nd last he was flat to the boards……….Hardly a leisurely stroll and just a decent pace and anyway no matter what the Listener and co did they were simply outclassed……
Incidentally if you want to rubbish me do it privately by PM and keep it off the forum. Bury the hatchet kid you’re beginning to become exceedingly boring with your childish smart-assed remarks
That isn’t to say that his class and his improved jumping won’t carry him to further GC victories, but not something I’d bet on on proper soft ground.
Most assume at this stage that Denman will make the race a rigid test, I still say he has yet to prove capable of doing so in such a high class field, particularly without any help from the ground.So pre-Lexus, Denman’s big weakness according to you was that he was incapable of quickening at the end of a race. Now he has quickened and ultimately won easily in a slowly run race, you now doubt he will be able to cope with a strongly run test? Not making it up as you go along by any chance?
The fact is that The Listener and Beef Or Salmon should have been well suited to a slowly run race like yesterday’s and neither ever looked like bothering Denman. Denman actually proved there is a lot more to his game than just being a dour stayer.
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Incidentally if you want to rubbish me do it privately by PM and keep it off the forum. Bury the hatchet kid you’re beginning to become exceedingly boring with your childish smart-assed remarksIn Let’s Get Racing’s defence, plenty find your inconsistent ramblings, as well as your "I know more about racing than anyone else" and "I am considerably richer than yow" attitude to be tedious in the extreme.
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That isn’t to say that his class and his improved jumping won’t carry him to further GC victories, but not something I’d bet on on proper soft ground.
Most assume at this stage that Denman will make the race a rigid test, I still say he has yet to prove capable of doing so in such a high class field, particularly without any help from the ground.So pre-Lexus, Denman’s big weakness according to you was that he was incapable of quickening at the end of a race. Now he has quickened and ultimately won easily in a slowly run race, you now doubt he will be able to cope with a strongly run test? Not making it up as you go along by any chance?
The fact is that The Listener and Beef Or Salmon should have been well suited to a slowly run race like yesterday’s and neither ever looked like bothering Denman. Denman actually proved there is a lot more to his game than just being a dour stayer.
The facts (as opposed to your opinion) are that The Listener weakened at the end of yesterday’s modest test, a point endorsed by his jockey. ( For LGR’s benefit, he also weakened in last season’s Irish Hennessy, in the same circumstances as his Lexus win, where he had the race won half a mile from home. His Sandown 2nd to an emergent Star de Mohaison was in a 4 runner novice race where stamina was never at a premium).
Beef or Salmon is clearly unsuited by a slowly run 3m these days, a point verified by all his recent form, and again endorsed by his trainer.
You might have been impressed by his quickening away from a novice ( One that has apparently found a stone and a half improvement in his 9th race over fences?) a non-stayer, and gained 4l at the finish against the slow old boat that is now BoS, I wasn’t particularly.
Denman is undoubtedly a very good horse, though I still maintain he has yet to show the pace to keep up with a top class field on the likely Gold Cup going, let alone go away from the likes of KS and ED.
As you seem intent on claiming the moral high ground on this one, I should point out that our positions were exactly reversed some 14 months ago when I was raving about one (Kauto Star) when you were fielding against him.
The facts (as opposed to your opinion) are that The Listener weakened at the end of yesterday’s modest test, a point endorsed by his jockey.
Don’t want to get into a spat and this comes across as a bit smart arse but, the only "facts" available are these
1 Denman P F Nicholls 7 11-10 R Walsh 4/9F
2 4 Mossbank Michael Hourigan 7 11-10 D N Russell 16/1
3 hd The Listener R H Alner 8 11-10 Daryl Jacob 4/1
4 1½ Beef Or Salmon Michael Hourigan 11 11-10 b P Carberry 14/1
5 12 State Of Play (GB) Evan Williams 7 11-10 Paul Moloney 25/1
6 16 L´Antartique (FR) Ferdy Murphy 7 11-10 G Lee 25/16 ran TIME 6m 30.50s
The rest, ( including anything the jockey, trainer, owner states) is opinion and open to interpretation
Now you seem to be claiming your opinions are facts. I can’t have the Listener as a non stayer – ok it is just an opinion but for me, he just simply wasn’t good enough in a slowly run race.
As you seem intent on claiming the moral high ground on this one, I should point out that our positions were exactly reversed some 14 months ago when I was raving about one (Kauto Star) when you were fielding against him.
No moral high ground involved, your opinions just seem inconsistent and poorly reasoned. One minute Denman is vulnerbale because he can’t quicken at the end of a race (and he has been exposed in a way that Kauto Star hasn’t because he has been beaten in a grade 1 hurdle ~ and we of course ignore hurdle defeats at racecourses that you haven’t heard of in France), the next he won’t be able to sustain a fast pace in the Gold Cup.
And anyway – I am not anti Kauto Star. The only race I have been against the horse all season was at Aintree – and he got beaten. The next one will be the Gold Cup assuming Denman gets there in one piece.
While that was a great race to watch I do not think it confirms more than we already knew. Denman is clearly a very good horse, excellent jumper but still quite a few pounds behind KS. I think 2/1 is a ridiculous price at the moment. It should be 2/1 just to get to the GC sound.
Some very interesting thoughts posted and it looks to me as though all depends on the ground, the size of the field and the tactics in the GC to determine how easily KS will win. At the moment it looks a race for second place or the rest waiting for KS to make that big mistake.
Whatever I have not totally given up on Exotic Dancer. A better horse at Cheltenham only a few lengths behind KS. might just get the luck in running especially if some of them take each other on early.
I love this game!!!!
Firstly congratulations to Denman for another win. Whilst it wasn’t as impressive as I had hoped for he stepped up once again and got the job done.
As others have stated he jumped and travelled well throughout but he did look rather once paced in my opinion. He doesn’t seem to have any extra gears but he’ll gallop on all day long which is effective in its own right.
All things considered it was a solid win and he has rightly earned his chance for the GC.
Lets just hope that Kauto Star, ED and Denman all line up fit and well for the GC in March. It could be a classic!
Kalidor.
I think 2/1 is a ridiculous price at the moment. It should be 2/1 just to get to the GC sound.
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From what i’ve seen so far, 2-1 chance looks about right to me
My tuppence worth is that Exotic Dancer would appear the most likely candidate to ruffle KS at Cheltenham but only if he is on tip top form and KS runs a few pounds light of his best.
Denman still has a bit to prove I think, although he is clearly up there.
The facts (as opposed to your opinion) are that The Listener weakened at the end of yesterday’s modest test, a point endorsed by his jockey.
The rest, ( including anything the jockey, trainer, owner states) is opinion and open to interpretation
If only that were true Charlie what a wonderfully easy game punting would be.
It may be as DK says there are inconsistencies in your posts but that is true of anyone on here. Different race, different frame of mind, noticed something you never saw before, so many factors can make anyone changed their mind.
On the issue of whether Denman has a turn of foot or not, at the end of the race, I firmly believe he does not.
Denman reminds me very much of the Arkle Mill House mold.
I have watched the lexus around a dozen times and granted he quickened up but it was from an nice even pace that was being set by Denman not by Ruby. The minute TL came on the scene Ruby took command the pace quickened and Denman moved into to top gear gradually over something like 5 fences.
At first glance I thought he quickened more than may have in the latter stages. Don’t forget there are two factors….the horse going forward and the horse going backwards. I never noticed it the first time I watched the race but Ruby gave him a couple of dull ones after the last for no apparent reason it could be he was expecting a bit more acceleration that he was actually getting.
I could be way off the mark there but to my eyes he is not a horse that you would ride and depend on a trun of foot if you wanted the best from him.
I would expect Denman not to go off in front in the Gold Cup. That would be a massive mistake and I think Sam Thomas will be told to stay handy and hunt him round in his own time for the first half of the race. He has such a great stride on him and a very high cruising speed that he wouldn’t be out of the first four in any case. When they think the time is right like Ruby did yesterday the long wind up to top gear will start and when he reaches it they will start dropping of like flies. I would not be surprised to see only two horses in it form just after 3 out.
Denman is without doubt more than a dour stayer he is a relentless galloper and it seems once he hits top speed can keep it all the way to the line………..whatever if anything beats him at Cheltenham better be much better than Exotic Dancer who might get within a few lengths of him but for me does not have the necessary ammunition in the locker to get past him.
We know who does and as much as you, me or the man in the moon may doubt it, Denman is the only horse who might get Kauto off the bridle and the final kick might not materialize. If that happens will win the Gold Cup as he may not be faster than Kauto but I would think he would be a bit tougher for the slog up the hill.
I can’t see Denman beating Kauto and it wouldn’t suprise me one little bit if he did to Denman and the rest whet he did in the King George and win by a long margin……….I think he will love every minute of having Denman giving him a lead and we could see his best performance to date.
He has always given me the impression others are going to slow for him and he could handle a stronger gallop.
I reckon it may be the first and last time they will ever meet if Kauto wins easily and if it were to be the case I wouldn’t mind a bet on Denman winning the 2009 National it would the like the return of Crisp hopefully without a red Rum hiding in the wings.
Interesting to note the official handicapper Phil Smith has left Denman at 176 following yesterdays race, even though he raised Kauto Star to 180 after the King George.
With Exotic Dancer on 177 there are three closely rated horses.
Smith says, "We have not had three horses rated in the high 170s and above going into the race for many, many years.
"In a normal year, any of them would be a Gold Cup winner but this is obviously an exceptional period and we are very lucky to have them all."
Paul Nicholls has said: "They are both great horses in their own right and I’m not going to draw comparisons. One day they will take each other on and it will be a very interesting race.
"I think Denman is the sort of horse that the better the race, the better he will run and we probably won’t know how good he is until he runs in that Gold Cup."
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